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Regional climate change scenarios: Products and services of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre Vladimir Djurdjevic South East European.

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Presentation on theme: "Regional climate change scenarios: Products and services of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre Vladimir Djurdjevic South East European."— Presentation transcript:

1 Regional climate change scenarios: Products and services of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre Vladimir Djurdjevic South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre

2 Political agreement UNECE Environment for Europe 2007 WMO RA VI RCC-Network UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme WCRP (CORDEX, …) SEEVCCC Background - Enhancing sub-regional SEE cooperation in climate related issues Bulgaria Israel Malta EMC, Turkey DMCSEE, Slovenia Under consideration MoE-SerbiaREC Geo-Modelling RGGM University of Belgrade Oxford BiHFYROMMNESRB NMHSs, R&D inst., … MoUs Partners CIMA ALB

3 Climate change scenarios: Downscaling of SINTEX-G (INGV) Coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University – Princeton Ocean Model) A1B: A1B: A2:

4 Climate change scenarios: Annual temperature and precipitation change: A1B: A1B: A2:

5 Regional dynamical downscaling provides information with more details about present climate and future climate changes. 1.Subotica-Horgos 2.Srem 3.Banat 4.Sumadija 5.West Morava 6.Timok 7.Nisava-South Morava 8.Pocerac 9.Kosovo Example of RCM-SEEVCCC climate projections application Important for different impact studies especially on regional level: energy, hydrology, agriculture, environmental protection, industry,.. Summer Drying Problem (CLAVIER project) It is well known that Climate models in region of Pannonian valley have significant BIAS, therefore it is necessary to apply more complex BIAS correction for climate change impact. Example: Application of Climate Projections in Vineyard Regions in Serbia Results for (A2): growing season: beginning April March growing degree days duration days above tolerable warmer and dryer rest season: beginning one month later first frost date ~15days later number of frost days no appearance of critical temp. <-15C Climate in present vineyard regions (<400m alt.) Shifts on ~1000m altitude

6 Some selected results… growing season start dategrowing degree days March April Nov. first autumn frost date present climate future climate springautumn beginning ending winter first frost date duration: days growing degree days: number of frost days: num. of days Tmin<-15C: 3 0 warmer, dryer! Mountain station ~1000m altitude enters the climate regime of present vineyard regions! growing season Summary

7 Climate change scenarios: Impact study: Changes in droughts duration, magnitude & intensity

8 WMO RA VI-Europe RCC Network SEEVCCC : Climate Data Node Climate Monitoring Node Long Range Forecast Node Lead: KNMI/Netherlands (consortium member SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia) Lead: DWD/Germany (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia) collecting data from the stations (monthly, stations; main source for data KNMI-ECA&D, other climate bulletins NCDC) mean temperature and accumulated precipitation, temperature anomaly and precipitation percent of normal, all available monthly/three-monthly Lead: Météo-France & ROSHYDROMET (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia) Once a month ensemble run of a regional long range forecast - 7 months ahead: dynamical downscaling ECMWF 41 ensemble with RCM-SEEVCCC South East European gridded model datasets for (ready)

9 Climate Monitoring Node - Climate Watch Advisory for SEE - Temperature anomalyPrecipitation (percent of normal) available maps: for each month and for 3 months: mean 2m temperature, acc. precipitation, temperature anomaly, precipitation percent of normal (with respect to ) Example of the product : September 2010

10 Long Range Forecast Node - Seasonal forecast for SEE - provides statistical summary of the atmosphere and ocean state in coming season. Probabilistic forecast RCM-SEEVCCC LRF ( L ong R ange F orecast – Seasonal Forecast) model start: 16 th of each month forecast duration: 7 months (~215 days) model resolution: ~35km atmosphere ; ~20km ocean model domain: Euro - Mediterranean region extended toward Caspian Sea 41 ensemble members initial and boundary conditions: ECMWF, resolution:125km results prepared for South East European region in form of: mean ensemble maps (mean 2m temperature, precipitation accumulation, temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly with respect to CRU data ) for month and three months (season) diagrams (probabilistic forecast of mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation accumulation for specific place) regional dynamical downscaling using fully coupled atmosphere-ocean Regional Climate Model

11 Probabilistic Long Range Forecast Maps of ensemble mean Additional: SST anomaly Example for LRF products

12 Verification of LRF downscaling will be prepared during this spring Examples of preliminary resulat

13 Seasonal forecast – ensemble long range forecast using RCM-SEEVCCC model Regional 3 and 5 day forecast – using WFRNMM model Dust forecast – with and without assimilation using DREAM model Global forecast – using GNMMB model Climate projections – for A1B and A2 scenarios using RCM-SEEVCCC model Regional observations in BUFR format Projects: Aral sea, Iran, Sintex-G, Hadley center climate simulations, etc. batch request5 Estimated number of fields: 1 retrieve, date= , time=12:00:00, stream=etad, step=12, levtype=pl, expver=1, class=ro, type=fc, param= , levelist=7 Data archived in MARS (ECMWF) in SEEVCCC

14 RCC Highly recommended functions (example): SEEVCCC Earth Modeling System NCEP NMMB atmospheric model global/regional/local hydrostatic/nonhydrostatic Aerosol radiation Aerosol cloud DREAM Dust Sea salt Carbon Pollution HYPROM Hydrology model Ocean model Fe and P nutrients

15 R&D: Earth Modeling System Numerical Weather Prediction Model (NWPM) Works on global, regional (res. ~10km) and local scales (res.~100m) Valuable tool to perform simulations on any desirable resolution NCEP/NMMB – N onhydrostatic M ultiscale M odel on B grid quasi-operational in SEEVCCC on global and regional scales Atmospheric particles Hydrology Implementation of dust, sea salt, minerals and other atmospheric particles: transport and their interactions with atmosphere and ocean (influence on cloud formation, radiation, ocean flora and fauna,…) for now dust component (DREAM) is prepared for implementation in NMMB Dynamical hydrology model is developed - HYPROM simulation of hydrology cycle HYPROM ready to be included into atmospheric driver NMMB Ocean First action is to couple NMMB with ocean model necessary because of large influence of sea on climate in the region

16 Examples of Earth Modeling System components performance NMMB global forecast against ECMWF analysis DREAM modification for purpose of volcano ash transport simulation Eyjafjallajokull starting date: April 14 th 2010 HYPROM discharge forecast vs. observations Moraca river – Podgorica sub-basin (2008)

17 Operational dust forecast: DREAM DREAM8 : D ust R egional A tmospheric M odel with 8 categories for particle sizes DREAM8 – assimDREAM8 model runs: 12UTC start ; +72h forecast model resolution: 1/3 degrees (~35km) presented: model run from June 11 th UTC models: DREAM8 and DREAM8-assim (assimilation using ECMWF dust aerosol analysis)



20 SEEVCCC/CCFAP-A in support of UNFCCC implementation GFCS Both SEEVCCC functions, under WMO and UNFCCC, may be considered as follow-up actions of WCC-3 which are in line with further development and implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services established by the WCC-3 CCFAP-A available at:

21 R&D: Earth Modeling System Example: Extremely wet SPI2 for February 2010, using LRF forecast (start January 1st 2010) Climate Watch example – precipitation anomalies and extremes RCM-SEEVCCC ensemble forecast corrected LRF RCM-SEEVCCC ensemble forecast observed New! Under development

22 SEE RCOF – SEECOF RHMS/SEEVCCC together with ARSO/DMCSEE + WMO: organization and implementation SEEVCCC ready for full support with all climate products to submit to DMCSEE for their drought advisories SEECOF-IV in November (22-26); preceded by on-line SEECOF (verification of consensus fcst)

23 On-line SEECOF-III …. To be used in Pre-COF IV

24 Facing Problems and Future Plans setting up of sub-regional teams + CB enhancing of sub-regional data exchange (data policy issue!) use of other existing RCMs (RegCM4, PRECIS, etc.) collaboration in further application and improvement of Climate Watch Advisory System Research and Development Agenda in SEE – Meeting in April 2011 Task Team on RCOF - TT-RCOF …


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