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Russian activities in polar studies related to weather forecasting M.Tolstykh, Hydrometcentre of Russia; Institute of Numerical Matematics Russian Academy.

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Presentation on theme: "Russian activities in polar studies related to weather forecasting M.Tolstykh, Hydrometcentre of Russia; Institute of Numerical Matematics Russian Academy."— Presentation transcript:

1 Russian activities in polar studies related to weather forecasting M.Tolstykh, Hydrometcentre of Russia; Institute of Numerical Matematics Russian Academy of Sciences

2 Plan Background Observations Data assimilation Modelling

3 Background Many meteorological stations in Russian Arctica were closed/conserved in 1990s Today Arctic is getting one of Russian priorities Enhancement of forecasting capabilities in Arctic is essential for: - sea transport, - oil and gas industry, - etc. International Polar Year Polar forum in Moscow, September 2010 – Russian PM declared support for basic researches in Arctic Proposal for international polar decade

4 Organizations involved Roshydromet: observations Roskosmos: satellites Hydrometcentre of Russia, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute: forecasts, diagnostic studies, modelling Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS – ocean and ice modelling, coupled modelling (climate) Norway-Russian cooperation: StPetersburg NIERSC (mostly climate studies, but also some meteorology)

5 Roshydromet international activities in Arctic Regions of Russian studies in Arctic Participation in International Polar Year projects Roshydromet acting polar stations station to be restored

6 Russian activities in Antarctic 5 stations + 3 automatic weather stations Progress station is being built

7 Building the permanent complex on Progress station Helicopter site is built Powerstation is partially built Further construction is underway

8 Modernization of existing stations in Antarctida Installation of satellite communication complex on Novolazarevskaya station Mirniy: New aerological complex is installed Seasonal bases Molodezhnaya, Russkaya, Leningradskaya – automatic wethater station are installed

9 Study of the underice Vostock lake Drillinig is carried from 3580 to 3645 m depth Shore is determined using radar Drilling device It is planned to reach the Vostock lake during 2010 – 2011 season

10 Observations in Arctica: Current state and perspectives Density index for SYNOP stations ( 1 station per sq. km) in Russian Arctic as of It is planned to increase the number of SYNOP stations in Russia to (among them automatic), significant portion of this increase will be above 60N. Arctic stations will be mostly automatic). About 50 stations are being installed this year. Radiosondes: planned increase from 105 to 129 sites, soundings 2 times per day. Creation and maintenance of the Arktika satellite system including two Molniya satellites on high-elliptic orbits.

11 Roshydromet SYNOP stations included in GTS

12 Russian radiosondes sites It is planned to reopen 22 sites (in yellow), 12 of them – north of 60N

13 2007: 87 expedition and field projects, 53 in Arctic, 24 in Antarctic and 10 bipolar. 76 Russian and foreign organizations, including 46 Russian organizations form 8 ministries took part in IPY expeditions in Some measures on restoring hydrometeorological network were carried out. (29 stations) Russia in International Polar Year Opening SP-35 Mir-1 Ice camp

14 Drifting station Severnii Polus 37 (09/ /2010) Observations: Continuous registration of meteorological and actinometric parameters (automatic station); Continuous registration of CO2 concentration; Regular measurements of ozone and UV radiation intensity); Gradient measurements for temperature and humidity (2 and 8 m), wind - 2 and 10 m); Regular aerological soundings Regular surface spectral albedo measurements Ozone soundings; Aerostat observations in boundary layer

15 Russian satellite hydrometeorological system (plan)

16 Short and medium-range numerical weather prediction Global models (SL-AV and T169L31) LAM – COSMO-RU 7 km Data assimilation Global ensemble prediction system (under testing) – based on T169 and SL-AV global models

17 SL-AV model Semi-Lagrangian vorticity-divergence dynamical core of own development, ALADIN/LACE parameterizations Currently, 0.9x0.72 degrees lon/lat, 28 levels, runs on Altix 4700 computer Accepted as the principal global model of RHMC Version with the resolution 0.45x0.37 degrees, 50 levels under testing Mire parametirization of own development Forecasts also at Spectral T169L31 model also runs operationally

18 Mire description included into SLAV model (Yurova A.) Peatlands have specific sensible heat H, latent heat LE, and soil heat G fluxes LE MMWH (Mixed Mire Water and Heat, Granberg et al., 1999) G heat diffusion in multilayer peat (Wania et al., 2009) Mire percentage (Sirin A. A. et al.)

19 T and RH errors at 2m for near-mire stations (bias, Abs and RMS errors)

20 COSMO-RU07: domain h = 2.8 km Initial and boundary data: 00 and12 UTC, GME (DWD) Forecast: 78 h Grid step 7 km Grid: 700 * 620 * 40 SGI Altix 4700 (1664 cores) Run time for 78 h. 19 min: 1024 cores 4340 km 4900 km

21 Data assimilation 3D-Var-FGAT for global models under quasioperational tuning (M.Tsyrulnikov). LETKF for SL-AV global model is being implemented (A.Shlyaeva). Some form of hybrid is considered for far future

22 The Hydrometcentre of Russia medium-range ensemble prediction system Domain: global Perturbations of initial data: Breeding Regional rescaling (northern extratropics, southern extratropics, tropics) Members: 15 T85L31 – 12 perturbed + control + T169L31, unperturbed + SLAV, unperturbed Implementation: Quasi operational runs on Altix 4700.

23 Seasonal forecasts at Hydrometcentre of Russia Operational: 1)Seasonal version of SL-AV model Horizontal resolution 1,40625°х1,125° lon-lat, 28 vertical levels; 2) T42L14 (T63L25 soon) run by Main Geophysical Observatory (St.Petersburg) The models contribute to the multi-model ensemble of APCC. Forecasts are at There is an experimental coupled atmosphere- ocean-sea ice model

24 Experimental atmosphere-ocean-ice model -1 Joint work of Hydrometcentre of Russia and Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS Atmospheric part is SL-AV (1.4x1.1, 28 levels) Ocean and ice models, as well as the cooupler, are taken from the climate model of INM. Calibrated in CMIP4, participating in CMIP5.

25 INMOM Ocean model sigma-coordinate model with isopicnic horizontal diffusion 1 ˚ x0.5 ˚, 40 levels The EVP (elastic- viscous- plastic) dynamics, Semtner thermodynamics sea ice model (Hunke, Ducowicz 1997; Iakovlev, 2005) is embedded. Coupling to the atmospheric model without flux correction

26 Northern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere MarchSeptember MarchSeptember INMOM results Observational data AMIP [Hurrel et al 2008] Sea ice concentration

27 Experimental atmosphere-ocean- ice model -2 Averaged heat flux to the ocean is 2.8 W/m2 (evaluated on the ocean side while running the model with one-way interaction). Room for improvement! No flux correction. 10-member ensemble (only atmospheric initial data were perturbed) Requires 12 hours on 12 processors (one ensemble member).

28 Change of SST in one of the experiments: reanalysis (left), coupled model (right)

29 Some results According to first results, small positive changes in extratropics atmosphere as compared with extrapolated SST anomaly run. Recently, the results for SST forecasts were improved. Currently, hindcasts with the coupled model are being run.

30 But… Even potential predictability in Arctic on seasonal time scales is not too high… Plan to study if there is a positive impact of using coupled model for shorter time ranges (e.g. month)

31 Plans (related to the models) Increase of the resolution for medium range SL- AV model to 0.45x0.37 deg, 50 levels – parallel runs expected in COSMO-RU 7 km will have a special domain for Siberia ( ) Coupled system – increase of the ocean model resolution to 0.25x0.25 deg, increase the number of vertical levels in atmospheric model from 28 to 40 (2012). 3D-Var-FGAT for the atmosphere and ocean expected operationally in 2011

32 Thank you for attention!

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