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WGNR - JSC6 July 18 20131 Working Group on Nowcasting Research Annual Report to JSC6 20130718 Paul Joe.

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Presentation on theme: "WGNR - JSC6 July 18 20131 Working Group on Nowcasting Research Annual Report to JSC6 20130718 Paul Joe."— Presentation transcript:

1 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 20131 Working Group on Nowcasting Research Annual Report to JSC6 20130718 Paul Joe

2 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 20132 Outline Membership JSC5 Action Items Projects – Near Past, Current and Future Other Activities Planned Meetings

3 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 20133 Approval/Advice from JSC 1.Membership Scheduling? 2.Lake Victoria (defer to 4.7) 3.WGNR Meeting – EA 2014? 4.WSN15 or WSN16 – begin to prepare? 5.WWOSC Nowcasting White Paper? 6.Merging?

4 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 20134 Tom Keenan Steve Goodman

5 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 20135 Startup in 2003 Staggered membership began in 2011 Now organized to change every 4 years* Chair in year preceding year 2 term rule*

6 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 20136 JSC5 Action Items 36 – CIMO Link 38 – Lake Victoria 39 – Contribute to WIGOS

7 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 20137 36 CIMO Link Link should be established with CIMO to look into defining a standard for operational instrumentation. Action to: Chairs of JWGFVR, WGNR, CAS President DONE! JWGFVR is a member of the Solid Precipitation Inter-comparison Experiment International Organizing Committee of CIMO (June 2013) Defer to JWGFR report

8 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 20138 38 – Lake Victoria Executive Council requested WWRP to investigate a Lake Victoria Basin Understanding project. UKMO noted gap in lack of evaluation process for local forecasts in Lake Victoria region, JSC asked to consider establishing a field RDP. On-going Discussed under future project 4.7

9 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 20139 39 - Contribute to WIGOS JSC recommended provision of quantified WWRP requirements as input to WIGOS. Provided input to CBS/SBO Weather Radar Data Exchange Initiative - DONE Plan is to organize various FDP science and monitoring leads to draft user requirements table for nowcasting data requirements for fine scale observation and prediction –On-going/see next slide

10 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201310 GCOS Data Requirements Table Cycle Time Spatial Resolution

11 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201311 Projects SNOW-V10 NWP for Nowcasting FROST14 INCA-CE TOMACS Korea 2018 Lake Victoria Project

12 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201312 SNOW-V10 3 journal papers published 17 journal papers accepted for publication 40+ Conference papers More to come…

13 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201313 SNOW-V10 FROST-14 Capacity Building Oct 2012 Sochi Forecaster Training

14 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201314 Weather Olympians 2014 1980 2000 2014

15 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201315 FROST-2014: To improve and exploit: – high-resolution deterministic mesoscale forecasts of meteorological conditions in winter complex terrain environment; – regional meso-scale ensemble forecast products in winter complex terrain environment; – nowcast systems of high impact weather phenomena (wind, visibility, precipitation type and intensity etc.) in complex terrain. To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region; To deliver deterministic and probabilistic forecasts in real time to Olympic weather forecasters and decision makers. To assess benefits of forecast improvement (verification and societal impacts) To develop a comprehensive information resource of alpine winter weather observations;

16 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201316 Todays network of meteorological stations in the region of Sochi

17 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201317 Vaisala C-band Doppler radar WRM200 on Akhun mountain in Sochi was launched in September 2012 Max reflectivity; wind&refl 2km-cappy; echo tops; 1-hour precipitation Altitude – 646 m Location: 43 о 3252,6 ״ N, 39 о 51 ׳ 05,0 ״ E. Raw Turkish data are expected to be available

18 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201318 + 4 times/day upper air sounding in Sochi Mobile Remote Sensing MRR Radiometer Wind Profiler Radiometer MRR Vertical Profile of Doppler Spectra

19 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201319 3. DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow) 2.5 km 1.0 km 250m Model Elevation – Jason Milbrandt 25 Jan 2013 Precipitation Cascading Domain Wind Same domain

20 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201320 3. DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow) 250 m X-C S-J Alpine

21 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201321 Ensemble project component Current state: COSMO-S14-EPS, GLAMEPS, NOAA-7km EPS, COSMO-RU2-EPS Expected: HARMON-EPS, Aladin LAEF / AROME-1km, KMAs downscaling of probabilistic forecasts. Poor mans ensemble of deterministic high-resolution models

22 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201322 INCA-CE See Ingo Meirold-Mautner report. Agenda item 4.3..

23 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201323 TOMACS Proposal

24 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201324 Use of Dense Observations 11+ radars

25 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201325 Fine Scale Data Assimilation

26 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201326 Radars Wind Profiler AWSMet. Sensors of IPS Surface detectors PyeongChang Korea 2018

27 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201327 Met. Supports : Specialized Support System Special Observation Research (snow process and physics) Forecasting system development Sonde Special OBSSnow process and physicsPrecipitation type Forecast

28 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201328 Research on the physical processes over the rugged terrain and High Mountain Understanding the specific physical processes over the mountainous area through the special observation Met. Supports : Specialized Support System Forecast system specialized on mountain : Radiation over slope SFC TEMP at sunrise (SH-ORG) Freezing level Forecast

29 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201329 Supporting system for each venues Met. Supports : Specialized Support System

30 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201330 Lake Victoria Project Proposal 1.The Nowcast System 2.The SWFDP 3.The Field Project 4.Capacity Building Four Components WMO Executive Council (EC) recommended that a World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project be considered for the Lake Victoria Watershed that would include a test-bed for field campaigns to collect data for research to understand the dynamics over the lake in order to reduce disaster from water spouts, waves, and wind gusts that affect both lake transport and fishermen who rely on the lake for their livelihoods. The EC further noted the potential linkages with the SWFDP for Eastern Africa." EC 2010

31 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201331 Lake Victoria (Item 4.7)

32 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201332 The Field Project Meteorological Understanding Scientific Validation Statistical Verification Red Stars – surveillance radar White Stars – hi res radar, dual-doppler Blue Star 6 – IOS Blue Star 4 – Upper Air Station Yellow – Met Stns

33 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201333 Other Activities Planned Meetings

34 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201334 NWP for Nowcasting 1.Predictability of Precipitation Systems 2.Mesoscale Networks 3.Data Assimilation and Rapid Update

35 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201335 WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting Research Rio di Janiero, Aug 2012 166 participants from 21 countries + 2 hours of lectures each day Radar Renewal in SA Nowcasting Impetus La Plata Rio 2016 Port Ops

36 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201336 Argentina Training (T-NOTE) Initiated by radar renewal, radar networks, nowcasting needs, La Plata Basin Initiated by Celeste Saulo, Paola Salio, Claudio Campetella, WSN12 Lead trainer is Rita Roberts of NCAR 5-16 August 2013 in Buenos Aires TRMM Lightning Flash #/min TRMM Height of 40 dBZ Echo

37 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201337 The Workshop Agenda

38 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201338 EUMETNET – Nowcasting New initiative began 1 Jan 2013

39 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201339 Membership (23 Countries)

40 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201340 Milestones Establishment of a group of nowcasting experts under the EUMETNET governance and their motivation for engagement in the nowcasting related planning within EUMETNET Provision of a scientific and technical overview of the applied nowcasting systems in Europe including quality assessment and development of verification standards for nowcasting (define parameters to verify, methods and observations to use for verification) Identification of (scientific or technical) elements in the presently existing nowcasting systems, which are worthwhile for exchange between members and the organization of the exchange process Assessment and interpretation of observation and NWP requirements for improved nowcasting and their communication with the relevant communities Preparation of the Nowcasting Activity proposal for the second phase (2014- 2017) Nowcasting Activity EUMETNET 24.04.2013

41 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201341 Deliverables DeadlineDeliverables 01.03.2013Nomination of representative experts of members; set up Working Area (WA) teams, Expert Team, Observers; ToR of ET, WA teams and WA leaders 23.-24.04.2013 (orig. 15.06.2013) 1. Face-to-face Meeting of ET (in the frame of INCA-CE Progress Meeting), WA working plan 15.11.2013ET meeting (possibly via teleconference), WA progress report 01.05.2014Nowcasting conference, WA final report 01.06.2014Different reports and assessments 30.06.2014Proposal for the second phase to be submitted to EUMETNET Nowcasting Activity EUMETNET 24.04.2013

42 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201342 Re-Organization JONAS + WGNR WGNR + WGMWFR

43 43 JONAS = WGNR + PWS Action item from JSC4 Discussion initiated with PWS –Open discussion, various options discussed –Planned to meet this week -> TBD CBS GDPFS (SWFDP) PWS (SWFDP, WENS) WGNR/WWRP -FDPs/RDPs -Advance -Promote -Capacity Build JWGVFR? SERA? Obs Dept? Technology Transfer Activities Guide to Nowcasting Promote Capacity Building Training Workshop

44 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201344 WGNR + WGMWFR WWW CBS CIMO CAS WWRP GDPFS PWS WGNR WGMWFR HIW WGNE DAOS JONAS Initiated by WWRP Telecon, WGMWFR in June 2013 No discussion within WGNR

45 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201345 Brainstorm at WGMWFR Hi-Res NWP use Fine Scale DA analysis Observations DQ Hi-Res NWP dev Fine Scale DA dev Observations DQ Parameterization Numerics Gray Zone Typhoon LAM Land Surface Data Sets Optimal Use of existing networks Understanding Systems, Heuristics Forecaster Interaction Promotion Capacity Building New Technologies Maturity, skill of NWP for severe weather (core) Impact Co-chair, membership at 20? Too broad? 20 is unwieldy, difficult to cover expectations if much less? Severe Weather? Brief Summary: No one at WGMWFR adverse to re-organization Address gaps? Clarity on rationale? Since many options. Gaps: Forecast Systems Observations Benefits: Automation -> NWP Probabilistic/Ense mble Nowcasting Focus on 2-12 gap Mutli-parameter

46 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201346 Early Activities Guide to Nowcasting (P. Li, HKO) Aviation Nowcasting Initiative (P. Li, HKO) –CAEM developing strategic plan for aviation –SESAR in Europe –NEXTGEN in U.S. Brazil Regional Training Centre – Nowcasting –Presented in WGNR Rio meeting –At USP, extended training workshops (2-6 weeks); annual –Request sustainability plan

47 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201347 Planned Meetings Lake Victoria Planning Meetings? WGNR – East Africa 2014? EUMETNET Nowcasting 11/2013 or Spring 2014? TOMACS Kickoff – Dec 2013 FROST 14 Science – Spring 2014 WWOSC – Montreal, July 2014 WSN 15 or 16? –Hong Kong, Capetown, Sydney, Shanghai –EUMENET Nowcasting Meeting ~May 2014 Urban Nowcasting Workshop 2015/16? –TOMACS, SREP, Pan Am2015 –With WSN? PanAm15 Wx, AQ, HI

48 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201348 Approval/Advice from JSC 1.Membership Scheduling? 2.Lake Victoria (defer to 4.7) 3.WGNR Meeting – EA 2014? 4.WSN15 or WSN16 – begin to prepare? 5.WWOSC Nowcasting White Paper expected? 6.Merging?

49 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 201349 Thank You

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