1. Kristen E. Fong Tatiana Melguizo George Prather Research & Planning Conference 4.2.13 Community College Student Progression through the Preparatory Math Sequence

2. FORMAT | 2 Presentation Outline  Current study:  Data and sample  Progression as it has previously been studied  Alternative illustration of progression  Results

3. METHOD | 5 Data Eight of the nine colleges of the Los Angeles Community College District Three cohorts of students who were assessed between summer 2005 through spring 2008 and tracked through spring 2010. Cohort 1 (2005-06) = 5 years Cohort 2 (2006-07) = 4 years Cohort 3 (2007-08) = 3 years

4. METHOD | 6 Sample Specification 1.Assessed and placed into developmental math between summer 2005 and spring 2008 2. Enrolled in any class at the college where they were assessed The following students were excluded: 3.Did not follow the recommended course placement 4.Concurrent high school students 5.Students who were 65 years or older

5. METHOD | 7 Student Characteristics based on Initial Placement ARPAEAIA Age 25.824.622.021.3 Female 61%58%52%49% Race/Ethnicity Asian/Asian American 6%9%15%25% African American 17%15%9%6% Latino 66%58%51%39% White/Caucasian 7%11%18%21% Other 5%6%8%9% Full-time 9%11%14%18% Financial aid 71%63%58%53% Observations (N) 15,10614,87914,55010,344 %age of total assessed 27% 19%

6. METHOD | 8 Placement by Race/Ethnicity Race/EthnicityARPAEAIATotalN Asian/Asian American11.9%20.1%31.1%36.9%100%6,936 African American38.5%34.0%18.6%8.9%100%6,672 Latino32.9%28.8%24.8%13.5%100%30,057 White/ Caucasian13.6%22.0%35.1%29.4%100%7,439 Other21.4%24.6%29.2%24.9%100%3,775 N15,10614,87914,55010,344100%54,879

7. PROGRESSION FIGURES | 9 Percentage of students passing each level of the math trajectory based on initial placement AR N=15,106 IA N=10,344 EA N=14,550 PA N=14,879 39% n=5961 23% n=3412 25% n=3654 14% n=2127 46% n=6776 51% n=7446 7% n=1004 12% n=1746 28% n=4012 54% n=5618 Pass IA Pass EA Pass PA Pass AR

8. PROGRESSION FIGURES | 10 AR N=15,106 IA N=10,344 EA N=14,550 PA N=14,879 64% 79% 72%75% 68% 70% 72% 78% 73% Pass IA Pass EA Pass PA Pass AR 70% 75% 72% 65% 83% 65% Attempt 74% Attempt 73% Attempt 67% Attempt 61% Percentage of students attempting and passing each level of the math trajectory based on initial placement

9. Simulation of Improvements in Proportions Attempting and Proportions Passing ArithmeticPre-AlgebraElementary Algebra Intermediate Algebra Reduction in dropoff/failure49%45%27%25% 44%27% Intermediate Algebra 85%80% Elementary Algebra 80% 83%84% Pre-Algebra 80% 81%80% Arithmetic80% 84%87%81%80% Cumulative Completion - Original and Simulated Compared OriginalSimulatedOriginalSimulatedOriginalSimulatedOriginalSimulated Intermediate Algebra 54%69% Elementary Algebra 51%64%28%56% Pre-Algebra 46%64%25%52%12%51% Arithmetic39%64%23%43%14%31%7%20%

10. AR N=1,387 IA N=1,546 EA N=1,737 PA N=3,225 43% 62% 63%60% 56% 60% 57%63%70% 68% Pass IA Pass EA Pass PA Pass AR 74% 76% 80% 68% 88% 69% COLLEGE A Attempt 68% Attempt 71% Attempt 69% Attempt 62%

11. AR N=6,096 IA N=1,648 EA N=2,911 PA N=2,271 66% 79% 76%71% 74% 77% 71%73%79% 84% Pass IA Pass EA Pass PA Pass AR 80% 83% 82% 79% 88% 79% COLLEGE B Attempt 77% Attempt 76% Attempt 73% Attempt 69%

12. Attempt AR Passed AR Attempt PA Pass PA Attempt EA Passed EA Attempt IA Passed IA 62%43%80%62%88%60%69%0.57 69%56%76%63%68%0.63 71%60%74%0.70 68%0.68 69%66%82%79%88%71%79%0.71 73%74%83%76%79%0.73 76%77%80%0.79 77%0.84

13. Too few progress through the sequence The sequence is too long The sequence is costly Assessment tests are not valid Remediation doesn’t work says the developing “consensus”

14. Regression Discontinuity Design Policy Variation Design On the strength of these critiques, some are calling for the virtual elimination of remediation Complete College America This critique is gathering momentum particularly because it is made by those attempting to use more rigorous methods for evaluating remediation

15. Both forms of analysis have glossed over the lower levels of remediation in favor of the transfer courses Have used 2 nd and 3 rd order data systems which may mask important nuance Have assumed that remediation in English is the same as remediation in Math Have assumed a universality of their cases without a discussion of how remedial systems and colleges may differ We lack a typology of remediation or of community colleges We believe the critique is overblown

16. It takes too long, so accelerate Put everyone in the transfer course with some supplemental help Most importantly, they have not suggested exactly what is broken or how it might be fixed

17. Setting cut scores is a complex, incremental process—multiple moving parts Gets serious attention only when faculty perceive insufficient homogeneity in a particular course Multiple measures considered of little importance but can be quite significant Very difficult to appraise the whole process or to target specific intervention points What we have learned from an in depth examination of the assessment process and a holistic look at the math sequence

18. Need more research—particularly broad comparative studies Mainly we have discovered questions

19. Arithmetic is where numbers fly like pigeons in and out of your head. Arithmetic tell you how many you lose or win if you know how many you had before you lost or won. Arithmetic is seven eleven all good children go to heaven -- or five six bundle of sticks. Arithmetic is numbers you squeeze from your head to your hand to your pencil to your paper till you get the answer. Arithmetic is where the answer is right and everything is nice and you can look out of the window and see the blue sky -- or the answer is wrong and you have to start all over and try again and see how it comes out this time. I Arithmetic by Carl Sandburg

20. If you take a number and double it and double it again and then double it a few more times, the number gets bigger and bigger and goes higher and higher and only arithmetic can tell you what the number is when you decide to quit doubling. Arithmetic is where you have to multiply -- and you carry the multiplication table in your head and hope you won't lose it. If you have two animal crackers, one good and one bad, and you eat one and a striped zebra with streaks all over him eats the other, how many animal crackers will you have if somebody offers you five six seven and you say No no no and you say Nay nay nay and you say Nix nix nix? If you ask your mother for one fried egg for breakfast and she gives you two fried eggs and you eat both of them, who is better in arithmetic, you or your mother?