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Dr. Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO WMO.

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Presentation on theme: "Dr. Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO WMO."— Presentation transcript:

1 Dr. Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO WMO THORPEX Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway October 6, 2010 Antarctic Weather Prediction Activities USA

2 Polar Numerical Weather Prediction United States Arctic and Antarctic Regions NWP Operations – NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) GFS: Global Forecasting System T574 (27 km) 8-d forecasts Arctic latitudes NAM: North American Mesoscale model 12-km grid 4-day forecasts Alaska Hi-Res Window (HRW): 5-km WRF-ARW

3 Polar Numerical Prediction US NWP Operations (contd) – High–latitude NAM and Hi-Res Windows (HRW) Alaska HRW NAM

4 Polar Numerical Prediction US NWP Operations (contd) – U.S. Air Force Weather Agency Arctic and Antarctic mesoscale forecasting: WRF Forecast distribution restricted – U.S. Navy NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Limited public products available (unclassified) NOGAPS 300 hPa height, winds: 24-h fcst 24 Sept UTC init

5 Polar Numerical Prediction US NWP Operations (contd) – AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Forecasts for Antarctica and high southern latitudes Forecasts for U.S. Antarctic Program forecasters (primary) Researchers, international users (secondary)

6 – AMPS: The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Real-time NWP system to support Antarctic forecasting and science Forecasts for Antarctica and high southern latitudes Sponsor: National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs Collaborators NCAR The Ohio State University Univ. of Colorado Polar Numerical Prediction United States NWP Operations (contd)

7 History – Antarctic Weather Forecasting Workshop (2000) (Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State Univ.) – Recognized weaknesses in Antarctic NWP Inadequate horizontal resolutions for capturing mesoscale features Inadequate representation of physical properties unique to Antarctic troposphere and PBL Poor representation of Antarctic topography – Recommendation: Need for a robust, high-resolution NWP system tailored to the needs of the forecasters at McMurdo The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)

8 AMPS Users / Applications – Primary: USAP Forecasters: Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center (SPAWAR) – Researchers and graduate students – Support for international on-Ice activities – Scientific field experiments Examples: LARISSA campaign (2010) (Larsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica) MaudNESS study (2005; R/V cruises) (Dronning Maud Land Nonlinear Equation of State System) GLOBEC Study (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics) The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)

9 1.67 km 15 km 5 km McMurdo 45 km 15 km Christchurch South Pole McMurdo Station AMPS Model: WRF – Weather Research and Forecasting Model – Polar WRF: WRF w/modifications for polar regions Forecast Domains: 45-/15-/5-/1.67-km McMurdo Ross Is.

10 Vertical configuration – 44 η-levels – 10 mb top Frequency – 2 forecasts / day – 0000 UTC, 1200 UTC initializations Lengths – 45-km, 15-km grids: 120 hr – 5-km, 1.67-km grids: 36 hr First-guess/BCs: GFS AMPS Forecasts

11 Model Enhancements Antarctic topo: 200-m RAMP2 dataset (Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project) Cycled soil temperatures Dry Valleys land use 1.7-km Grid Land Use (brown=bare ground) USGS map: Ross Is., Dry Valleys RAMP2 – USGS terrain hgts (m)

12 7 Cycled soil temperatures GFS subsurface ice temperatures have generally been too high in Antarctica Strategy: cycle the ice temperature field from one forecast to the next Relies on feedback in the model between near-surface air temperature and ice temperature This cycling results in lower ice temperatures

13 13 NCAR-NCAS WRF Workshop8 Cycled soil temperatures Soil temperature from GFS Soil temperature cycled over ~1 yr (?) using the Noah LSM cm layer cm layer Difference (GFS - cycled)

14 14 NCAR-NCAS WRF Workshop10 Cycled soil temperatures Soil temperature (0-10cm) from GFS Soil temperature (0-10cm) cycled over ??? forecasts using the Noah LSM

15 Data Assimilation WRFDA (3DVAR) system: 45- and 15-km grids Assimilated observations include Conventional obs (radiosonde, AWS, ship, buoy, aircraft, METAR) Satellite (e.g., SATOB, GEO & MODIS AMV, QuikSCAT, AMSU-A rads) GPS RO (refractivity COSMIC) Soundings COSMIC Selected Obs: 0000 UTC 20 Sept 2009

16 Location: NCAR IBM Power 6 architecture 3 32-processor Nodes 96 CPUs 4.7 Ghz processors Wallclock time/fcst 4.5 hr Funding: National Science Foundation AMPS: Computer Platform

17 62 nd Airlift Wing C-17 Ice Runway, McMurdo New York Air National Guard LC-130 Ice Runway, McMurdo AMPS provides numerical guidance for SPAWAR forecasting for the USAF, NYANG, Royal New Zealand AF, and other on-Ice air ops (e.g., helicopters, Twin Otters). AMPS Antarctic Air Support

18 AMPS: International Support Italy Australia UK Germany South Africa Chile China New Zealand DROMLAN Group Dronning Maud Land Air Network Germany, Russia, India, Japan, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Belgium, UK, South Africa SA Agulhas (South Africa) (background) RV Polarstern (Germany) (foreground)

19 Site: Forecast GridProduct ChooserModel RunFcst hr AMPS Display Page Run Status

20 SLP 3-h Precip 17 Sept UTC init Fcst period: 12 UTC 17 Sept– 12 UTC 22 Sept AMPS Forecast Products

21 Meteogram– South Pole 17 Sept UTC init Fcst period: 12 UTC 17 Sept– 00 UTC 19 Sept AMPS Forecast Products

22 NZSP South Pole (lat, lon) = (-90.00, 0.00) Forecast initialized at AMPS 5-km SP domain FCST UTC T T corr T d Altim Spd Dir Grid VVV RH1RH2RH3 T1T2T3 ACCUM HR HR (C) (C) (C) (in.) (kts) (°) (°) (% wrt water) (C) M53M42M M50M43M M48M41M M46M40M M45M40M M44M40M M43M39M M41M37M M41M37M M40M37M M40M37M M40M38M M40M38M * NOTES on units: VVV (vertical velocity) in tenths of a microbar per second at 700 hPa (positive– upward motion) ACCUM (accumulated precipitation, past 1h) is given as hundreths of a millimeter; RH1, RH2, and RH3 are the % RH at the surface, 1000', and 3000', respectively; T1, T2, and T3 are the temperatures at 500', 1000', and 1500', respectively. Table– South Pole AMPS Forecast Products

23 AMPS Archive AMPS Forecasts Stored – NCAR Mass Storage System – MM5 and WRF forecast output Native model format GRIB subsets of output (Oct. 2008) Select fields (e.g., u, v, T, GHT) Mandatory and some selected levels – Forecast plots (Oct ) Applications – Model verification and forecast review – Case and process studies – Site and region climatologies Information:

24 US Polar NWP: – Military: Arctic & Antarctic Restricted access – Civilian: Arctic NCEP Antarctic NSF: AMPS Group AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System – Real-time NWP guidance: WRF model – Support to: USAP weather operations Research Field campaigns International community Emergency operations – Funding: U.S. National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Summary


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