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Antarctic Weather Prediction

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Presentation on theme: "Antarctic Weather Prediction"— Presentation transcript:

1 Antarctic Weather Prediction
Activities— USA Dr. Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO WMO THORPEX Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway October 6, 2010

2 Polar Numerical Weather Prediction— United States
• Arctic and Antarctic Regions • NWP Operations – NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ▪ GFS: Global Forecasting System T574 (27 km) 8-d forecasts ▪ Arctic latitudes  NAM: North American Mesoscale model 12-km grid 4-day forecasts Alaska Hi-Res Window (HRW): 5-km WRF-ARW

3 – High–latitude NAM and Hi-Res Windows (HRW)
Polar Numerical Prediction— US • NWP Operations (cont’d) – High–latitude NAM and Hi-Res Windows (HRW) NAM Alaska HRW

4 – U.S. Air Force Weather Agency
Polar Numerical Prediction— US • NWP Operations (cont’d) – U.S. Air Force Weather Agency ▪ Arctic and Antarctic mesoscale forecasting: WRF ▪ Forecast distribution restricted – U.S. Navy ▪ NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System ▪ Limited public products available (unclassified) NOGAPS 300 hPa height, winds: 24-h fcst 24 Sept UTC init

5 – AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System
Polar Numerical Prediction— US • NWP Operations (cont’d) – AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System ▪ Forecasts for Antarctica and high southern latitudes ▪ Forecasts for  U.S. Antarctic Program forecasters (primary)  Researchers, international users (secondary)

6 – AMPS: The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System
Polar Numerical Prediction— United States • NWP Operations (cont’d) – AMPS: The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System ▪ Real-time NWP system to support Antarctic forecasting and science ▪ Forecasts for Antarctica and high southern latitudes ▪ Sponsor: National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs ▪ Collaborators NCAR The Ohio State University Univ. of Colorado

7 The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)
• History – Antarctic Weather Forecasting Workshop (2000) (Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State Univ.) – Recognized weaknesses in Antarctic NWP ▪ Inadequate horizontal resolutions for capturing mesoscale features ▪ Inadequate representation of physical properties unique to Antarctic troposphere and PBL ▪ Poor representation of Antarctic topography – Recommendation: Need for a robust, high-resolution NWP system tailored to the needs of the forecasters at McMurdo

8 • AMPS Users / Applications
The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) • AMPS Users / Applications – Primary: USAP Forecasters: Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center (SPAWAR) – Researchers and graduate students – Support for international on-Ice activities – Scientific field experiments Examples:  LARISSA campaign (2010) (Larsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica)  MaudNESS study (2005; R/V cruises) (Dronning Maud Land Nonlinear Equation of State System)  GLOBEC Study (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics)

9 AMPS Model: WRF Forecast Domains: 45-/15-/5-/1.67-km
– Weather Research and Forecasting Model – “Polar WRF”: WRF w/modifications for polar regions Forecast Domains: 45-/15-/5-/1.67-km 1.67 km 15 km 5 km McMurdo McMurdo 45 km 15 km Christchurch South Pole McMurdo Station Ross Is.

10 AMPS Forecasts • Vertical configuration • Frequency • Lengths
– 44 η-levels – 10 mb top • Frequency – 2 forecasts / day – 0000 UTC, 1200 UTC initializations • Lengths – 45-km, 15-km grids: 120 hr – 5-km, 1.67-km grids: 36 hr • First-guess/BCs: GFS

11 Model Enhancements Antarctic topo: 200-m RAMP2 dataset
(Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project) Cycled soil temperatures Dry Valleys land use RAMP2 – USGS terrain hgts (m) 1.7-km Grid Land Use (brown=bare ground) USGS map: Ross Is., Dry Valleys

12 Cycled soil temperatures
GFS subsurface ice temperatures have generally been too high in Antarctica Strategy: cycle the ice temperature field from one forecast to the next Relies on feedback in the model between near-surface air temperature and ice temperature This cycling results in lower ice temperatures 7

13 Cycled soil temperatures
Soil temperature cycled over ~1 yr (?) using the Noah LSM Soil temperature from GFS Difference (GFS - cycled) cm layer cm layer NCAR-NCAS WRF Workshop 8

14 Cycled soil temperatures
Soil temperature (0-10cm) cycled over ??? forecasts using the Noah LSM Soil temperature (0-10cm) from GFS NCAR-NCAS WRF Workshop 10

15 Data Assimilation WRFDA (3DVAR) system: 45- and 15-km grids
Assimilated observations include Conventional obs (radiosonde, AWS, ship, buoy, aircraft, METAR) Satellite (e.g., SATOB, GEO & MODIS AMV, QuikSCAT, AMSU-A rads) GPS RO (refractivity— COSMIC) COSMIC Soundings Selected Obs: 0000 UTC 20 Sept 2009

16 AMPS: Computer Platform
• Location: NCAR • IBM Power 6 architecture • 3 32-processor Nodes 96 CPUs 4.7 Ghz processors • Wallclock time/fcst 4.5 hr • Funding: National Science Foundation

17 AMPS— Antarctic Air Support
New York Air National Guard LC-130 Ice Runway, McMurdo 62nd Airlift Wing C-17 Ice Runway, McMurdo AMPS provides numerical guidance for SPAWAR forecasting for the USAF, NYANG, Royal New Zealand AF, and other on-Ice air ops (e.g., helicopters, Twin Otters).

18 AMPS: International Support
 Italy  Australia  UK  Germany  South Africa  Chile  China  New Zealand  DROMLAN Group— Dronning Maud Land Air Network Germany, Russia, India, Japan, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Belgium, UK, South Africa SA Agulhas (South Africa) (background) RV Polarstern (Germany) (foreground)

19 Site: www.mmm.ucar.edu/rt/amps
AMPS Display Page Fcst hr Forecast Grid Model Run Product Chooser Run Status Site:

20 AMPS Forecast Products SLP 3-h Precip 17 Sept 2010 1200 UTC init
Fcst period: 12 UTC 17 Sept– 12 UTC 22 Sept

21 AMPS Forecast Products Meteogram–South Pole 17 Sept 2010 1200 UTC init
Fcst period: 12 UTC 17 Sept– 00 UTC 19 Sept

22 AMPS Forecast Products
NZSP South Pole (lat, lon) = (-90.00, 0.00) Forecast initialized at AMPS 5-km SP domain FCST UTC T Tcorr Td Altim Spd Dir Grid VVV RH1RH2RH3 T1T2T3 ACCUM HR HR (C) (C) (C) (in.) (kts) (°) (°) (% wrt water) (C) M53M42M M50M43M M48M41M M46M40M M45M40M M44M40M M43M39M M41M37M M41M37M M40M37M M40M37M M40M38M M40M38M * NOTES on units: VVV (vertical velocity) in tenths of a microbar per second at 700 hPa (positive– upward motion) ACCUM (accumulated precipitation, past 1h) is given as hundreths of a millimeter; RH1, RH2, and RH3 are the % RH at the surface, 1000', and 3000', respectively; T1, T2, and T3 are the temperatures at 500', 1000', and 1500', respectively. Table– South Pole

23 AMPS Archive Information:
• AMPS Forecasts Stored – NCAR Mass Storage System – MM5 and WRF forecast output  Native model format  GRIB subsets of output (Oct. 2008) ▪ Select fields (e.g., u, v, T, GHT) ▪ Mandatory and some selected levels – Forecast plots (Oct. 2008) • Applications – Model verification and forecast review – Case and process studies – Site and region climatologies Information:

24 Summary • US Polar NWP: • AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System
– Military: Arctic & Antarctic— Restricted access – Civilian: Arctic— NCEP Antarctic— NSF: AMPS Group • AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System – Real-time NWP guidance: WRF model – Support to:  USAP weather operations  Research  Field campaigns  International community  Emergency operations – Funding: U.S. National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs


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