Presentation on theme: "Antarctic Weather Prediction"— Presentation transcript:
1 Antarctic Weather Prediction Activities— USADr. Jordan G. PowersMesoscale and Microscale Meteorology DivisionNCAR Earth System LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, COWMO THORPEX Polar Prediction WorkshopOslo, NorwayOctober 6, 2010
2 Polar Numerical Weather Prediction— United States • Arctic and Antarctic Regions• NWP Operations– NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)▪ GFS: Global Forecasting SystemT574 (27 km)8-d forecasts▪ Arctic latitudes NAM: North American Mesoscale model12-km grid4-day forecastsAlaska Hi-Res Window (HRW): 5-km WRF-ARW
3 – High–latitude NAM and Hi-Res Windows (HRW) Polar Numerical Prediction— US• NWP Operations (cont’d)– High–latitude NAM and Hi-Res Windows (HRW)NAMAlaska HRW
4 – U.S. Air Force Weather Agency Polar Numerical Prediction— US• NWP Operations (cont’d)– U.S. Air Force Weather Agency▪ Arctic and Antarctic mesoscale forecasting: WRF▪ Forecast distribution restricted– U.S. Navy▪ NOGAPS:NavyOperationalGlobalAtmosphericPredictionSystem▪ Limited publicproductsavailable(unclassified)NOGAPS 300 hPa height, winds: 24-h fcst24 Sept UTC init
5 – AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Polar Numerical Prediction— US• NWP Operations (cont’d)– AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System▪ Forecasts for Antarctica and high southern latitudes▪ Forecasts for U.S. Antarctic Program forecasters (primary) Researchers, international users (secondary)
6 – AMPS: The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Polar Numerical Prediction— United States• NWP Operations (cont’d)– AMPS: The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System▪ Real-time NWP system to support Antarctic forecasting and science▪ Forecasts for Antarctica and high southern latitudes▪ Sponsor: National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs▪ Collaborators NCARThe Ohio State UniversityUniv. of Colorado
7 The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) • History – Antarctic Weather Forecasting Workshop (2000) (Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State Univ.)– Recognized weaknesses in Antarctic NWP▪ Inadequate horizontal resolutions for capturing mesoscale features▪ Inadequate representation of physical properties unique to Antarctic troposphere and PBL▪ Poor representation of Antarctic topography– Recommendation: Need for a robust, high-resolution NWP system tailored to the needs of the forecasters at McMurdo
8 • AMPS Users / Applications The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)• AMPS Users / Applications– Primary: USAP Forecasters: Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center (SPAWAR)– Researchers and graduate students– Support for international on-Ice activities– Scientific field experimentsExamples: LARISSA campaign (2010)(Larsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica) MaudNESS study (2005; R/V cruises)(Dronning Maud Land Nonlinear Equation of State System) GLOBEC Study(Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics)
9 AMPS Model: WRF Forecast Domains: 45-/15-/5-/1.67-km – Weather Research and Forecasting Model– “Polar WRF”: WRF w/modifications for polar regionsForecast Domains: 45-/15-/5-/1.67-km1.67 km15 km5 km●McMurdoMcMurdo45 km15 kmChristchurchSouth Pole●McMurdo StationRoss Is.
11 Model Enhancements Antarctic topo: 200-m RAMP2 dataset (Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project)Cycled soil temperaturesDry Valleys land useRAMP2 – USGS terrain hgts (m)1.7-km Grid Land Use(brown=bare ground)USGS map: Ross Is., Dry Valleys
12 Cycled soil temperatures GFS subsurface ice temperatures have generally been too high in AntarcticaStrategy: cycle the ice temperature field from one forecast to the nextRelies on feedback in the model between near-surface air temperature and ice temperatureThis cycling results in lower ice temperatures7
13 Cycled soil temperatures Soil temperature cycled over ~1 yr (?) using the Noah LSMSoil temperature from GFSDifference (GFS - cycled)cm layercm layerNCAR-NCAS WRF Workshop8
14 Cycled soil temperatures Soil temperature (0-10cm) cycled over ??? forecasts using the Noah LSMSoil temperature (0-10cm) from GFSNCAR-NCAS WRF Workshop10
15 Data Assimilation WRFDA (3DVAR) system: 45- and 15-km grids Assimilated observations includeConventional obs (radiosonde, AWS, ship, buoy, aircraft, METAR)Satellite (e.g., SATOB, GEO & MODIS AMV, QuikSCAT, AMSU-A rads)GPS RO (refractivity— COSMIC)COSMICSoundingsSelected Obs: 0000 UTC 20 Sept 2009
16 AMPS: Computer Platform • Location: NCAR• IBM Power 6 architecture• 3 32-processor Nodes96 CPUs4.7 Ghz processors• Wallclock time/fcst4.5 hr• Funding: National Science Foundation
17 AMPS— Antarctic Air Support New York Air National Guard LC-130Ice Runway, McMurdo62nd Airlift Wing C-17Ice Runway, McMurdoAMPS provides numerical guidance for SPAWAR forecasting forthe USAF, NYANG, Royal New Zealand AF, and other on-Ice air ops (e.g., helicopters, Twin Otters).
18 AMPS: International Support Italy Australia UK Germany South Africa Chile China New Zealand DROMLAN Group—Dronning Maud Land AirNetworkGermany, Russia, India,Japan, Norway,Sweden, Finland,Belgium, UK,South AfricaSA Agulhas (South Africa)(background)RV Polarstern (Germany)(foreground)
20 AMPS Forecast Products SLP 3-h Precip 17 Sept 2010 1200 UTC init Fcst period:12 UTC 17 Sept–12 UTC 22 Sept
21 AMPS Forecast Products Meteogram–South Pole 17 Sept 2010 1200 UTC init Fcst period:12 UTC 17 Sept–00 UTC 19 Sept
22 AMPS Forecast Products NZSP South Pole (lat, lon) = (-90.00, 0.00)Forecast initialized atAMPS 5-km SP domainFCST UTC T Tcorr Td Altim Spd Dir Grid VVV RH1RH2RH3 T1T2T3 ACCUMHR HR (C) (C) (C) (in.) (kts) (°) (°) (% wrt water) (C)M53M42MM50M43MM48M41MM46M40MM45M40MM44M40MM43M39MM41M37MM41M37MM40M37MM40M37MM40M38MM40M38M* NOTES on units:VVV (vertical velocity) in tenths of a microbar per second at 700 hPa (positive– upward motion)ACCUM (accumulated precipitation, past 1h) is given as hundreths of a millimeter;RH1, RH2, and RH3 are the % RH at the surface, 1000', and 3000', respectively;T1, T2, and T3 are the temperatures at 500', 1000', and 1500', respectively.Table– South Pole
23 AMPS Archive Information: • AMPS Forecasts Stored– NCAR Mass Storage System– MM5 and WRF forecast output Native model format GRIB subsets of output (Oct. 2008)▪ Select fields (e.g., u, v, T, GHT)▪ Mandatory and some selected levels– Forecast plots (Oct. 2008)• Applications– Model verification and forecast review– Case and process studies– Site and region climatologiesInformation:
24 Summary • US Polar NWP: • AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System – Military: Arctic & Antarctic— Restricted access– Civilian: Arctic— NCEPAntarctic— NSF: AMPS Group• AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System– Real-time NWP guidance: WRF model– Support to: USAP weather operations Research Field campaigns International community Emergency operations– Funding: U.S. National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs
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