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Recent Progresses in Numerical Weather Prediction and HPC at KMA Hee-Dong Yoo Korea Meteorological Administration 26th WGNE Meeting October 18-22, 2010,

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Presentation on theme: "Recent Progresses in Numerical Weather Prediction and HPC at KMA Hee-Dong Yoo Korea Meteorological Administration 26th WGNE Meeting October 18-22, 2010,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Recent Progresses in Numerical Weather Prediction and HPC at KMA Hee-Dong Yoo Korea Meteorological Administration 26th WGNE Meeting October 18-22, 2010, Tokyo

2 Major Changes in Operational NWP System

3 Regional (Deterministic short-range) Global (Deterministic medium-range) Major NWP Changes T426L40 (GDAPS) –GSM from JMA –3DVAR –Operation since 1997 UM N320L50 –The Unified Model from UKMO –4DVAR –Operation since May 2010 30kmL33 (RDAPS) –MM5 Model –FDDA –Operation since 1997 10kmL40 (KWRF) –WRF ARW Model –Operation since 2007 UM 12kmL38 –The Unified Model from UKMO –Initialized from Global UM –Operation since May 2010 10kmL40 (KWRF) –WRF ARW Model –L.B.C. from Global UM - 3 -

4 - 4 - UM Implementation Background KMA decided to import the Unified Model as a next-generation NWP system (Q4 07) UM Research license (Q4 07) Collaboration Agreement – including Science Plan - between KMA and UK Met Office (Operational License, Q2 08) Routine operation of global/regional UM started (Q2 08) Initialized from UK Met Offices initial condition Global D.A. cycle for UM including ODB implementation (08~09) Migration of UM system to the 3 rd supercomputer (Q4 09) Parallel run of UM system on Cray XT5 Interim (March 10~) Operational run of UM system on Cray XT5 (14 th May 10~)

5 - 5 - Cray XT5 (3 rd HPC) Global Model (UM N320L50) 10-day Forecast Regional Model (UM 12km) Parallel Suite : 2010.03 ~ 2010.05 Observation Pre-Processing Data Assimilation Obs. Pre-proc. System (OPS) Atmos. 4DVAR (VAR) Surf. Analysis (SURF) COMIS GTS/FTP Decoded Obs. (ODB) Pre-/Post-Server (New) Application/Statistical Models Post-Processing Regional Model (KWRF 10km) Operational Suite : 2010.05 ~ Operational UM System

6 - 6 - Regional Horiz. : ~12km (540x432 / 0.11°x0.11°) Vert. : 38 layers (top ~ 39km) +72hrs Forecast Initialized from Global I.C. Version : UM 6.6 Global Horiz. : N320 (~40km / 0.5625°x0.375°) Vert. : 50 layers (top ~ 60km) +252hr Forecast Initialized by 4DVAR Version : UM 6.6 UM Configuration in KMA

7 MODELS Horiz. Resol. (Vert. Layers) Forecast LengthTarget UM (GLOBAL)40km (50)10 days Global Medium-range Fcst. GDAPS 30km (40)10 days Global Medium-range Fcst. 55km (40)10 days Global Medium-range (EPS) 110km (21)120 days Seasonal Forecasting UM (REGIONAL)12km (38)72 hours East-Asia Short-range Fcst. RDAPS30/10/5km (33)66/24/24 hours East-Asia Short-range Fcst. KWRF 10 km (40) 66 hours East-Asia SRF – UM-based KLAPS 5km 12 hours Korean Peninsula Wave Models (Wave Watch-III) 60km 10 days GWW3(Global) – UM-based 8km66 hours RWW3(E-Asia) – UM-based 1km24 hours CWW3(Coastal) – UM-based Sand Dust Model (ADAM) 30km72 hours Yellow-Dust (East Asia) – UM-based Tide and Storm Surge (RTSM) 8km72 hours Regional Tide & Storm Surge – UM-based Typhoon Model (DBAR) 35km72 hours Track & Intensity Statistical/Digital Fcst.-2-10 days UM-based Main Operational Models (10.5~)

8 - 8 - UM-GLOBALUM-REGIONAL Governing Eq.Complete equation (Non-hydrostatic) Horiz. ResolutionN320 (40km 0.5625x0.375)12km (0.11x0.11) Vertical LayersL50 (top ~ 63km)L38 (top ~ 39km) Forecast Length10.5 days (252 hours)3 days (72 hours) Timestep Size900 sec240 sec I.C./ Data Assimilation4DVARDownscaling from global initial condition Spatial DiscretizationFinite Difference method Time integ. / AdvectionSemi-implicit Semi-Lagrangian scheme Radiation ProcessEdwards-Slingo general 2-stream scheme Surface ProcessMOSES-II land-surface scheme PBL ProcessMOSES-II Non-local PBL Convection ProcessMass flux convection with CAPE closure MicrophysicsMixed-phase precipitation Gravity Wave DragG.W. drag due to orography (GWDO) Surface B. C.Surface Analysis + Climatology Operation FrequencyTwice daily (00/12 UTC) / 6hour D.A. cycle Twice daily (00/12 UTC) Operational NWP Models – Unified Model

9 - 9 - GDAPS (Deterministic)GBEPS (Ensemble) Base ModelGSM (Global Spectral Model from JMA) Governing Eq.Primitive Equation (Hydrostatic) Horiz. ResolutionT426 (0.28125x0.28125)T213 (0.5625x0.5625) Vertical LayersL40 (top : 0.4 hPa) Forecast Length252 hours240 hours I.C./ Data Assimilation3DVARBreeding Method + Factor Rotation / 3DVAR Ensemble Size-17*2 (12 hour time-lag) Spatial DiscretizationSpectral Transformation Time integrationSemi-implicit Scheme Radiation ProcessSW : Lacis and Hansen (1974) / LW : JMA (Sugi et al., 1989) Surface ProcessSiB (Simple Biosphere, Sellers, 1986) PBL ProcessNon-Local PBL (Holtslag and Boville, 1993) Convection ProcessKuo Type (Kuo, 1974) MicrophysicsLarge-scale condensation (Sundqvist, 1978) Gravity Wave DragGWD due to orography (Iwasaki et al., 1989) GWD due to cumulus convection (Chun and Baik, 1988) Operation FrequencyTwice daily (00/12 UTC) 6hour 3DVAR cycle Twice daily (00/12 UTC) 6hour 3DVAR cycle Operational NWP Models – Others / Global / Atmos.

10 RDAPSKWRF 30km10km5km Base ModelMM5WRF ARW Dynamic FrameNon-hydrostatic Horiz. Resolution30km(171x191)10km(160x178)5km(141x141)10km(574x514) Vertical Layers33 Layers / ~50 hPa40 Layers / ~50 hPa Forecast Length66 hours24 hours 66 hours I.C./Data Assim.FDDA3hr cycle (IAU)1-way interact.3DVAR / DFI Lateral B.C.Relaxation (12hr) Time & inflow/outflow dependent relaxation (3hr) Updated every 6 hrs (global UM) Spatial DiscretizationFinite Difference Radiation ProcessCloud RadiationRRTM Surface Process5-layer Soil ModelNoah LSM PBL ProcessMRF PBLYSU PBL Convection ProcessNew Kain-FritschNoneNew Kain-Fritsch MicrophysicsMixed phaseWSM6 Operational NWP Models – Others / Regional / Atmos. - 10 -

11 Data Assimilation System – for Global UM - 11 - Observation Data and Global D.A. Observation DB : ODB CY32R3 Observations Used –Surface (SYNOP/Ship/Buoy), Sonde (TEMP, Pilot, Wind Profiler), Aircraft, Satwind, AIRS (AQUA), Scatwind, IASI (MetOp), GPSRO (COSMIC), SSMIS –~80,000 observations per cycle (80~85% compared to UK Met Office) Analysis Scheme : 4-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Analysis Time : 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC Cut-off Time : 2 hours 25 minutes for Early Analysis 6 hours 25 minutes for Update Analysis Spatial Resolution (Inner Model) : N108(1.67x1.11deg) L50 Assimilation Window : -3 hours to +3 hours of Analysis Time

12 - 12 - NWP Performance - Global Forecast error comparison (GDAPS vs. UM)

13 - 13 - NWP Performance - Global +5days +3days RMS error for 500 hPa Geopotential Height / N. Hemisphere Old (GDAPS) New (UM)

14 NWP Performance - Global Verification Period –April ~ September 2010 ~15% enhancement compared to GDAPS for 500 hPa Geopotential Height (+120 hours) Verification against Analysis

15 The Regional UM outperforms KWRF Light Precipitation is significantly over- estimated in the UM KWRF(10km) UM12 UM(12km) – KWRF(10km) Precipitation Verification (against 76 ASOS obs.) – UM versus KWRF - 15 - NWP Performance - Regional (Precipitation)

16 New Supercomputer and Upcoming NWP Changes

17 NEC SX-5/28M2 1999.12 ~ 2005.11 1 st Supercomputer Theoretical performance 0.2 TFlops × 90 2 nd Supercomputer Theoretical performance 18.5 TFlops CRAY X1E 1024/MSP 2005.12 ~ 2010.11 3 rd Supercomputer Theoretical performance 682.9 TFlops CRAY XE6 90,240 cores 2010 ~ × 37 - 17 - Current Status (10.10) - 1 st phase of 3 rd Supercomputer - Cray XT5 - 2,560 cores / 27.65 TFlops KMAs Supercomputer

18 Cray XT5 MPP System with Lustre Global Parallel File System –Processor : AMD 2.7GHz (4 core) Initial PhaseTechnology Peak Perform. TFlop/s StorageBackup InterimCray XT51412 TB 4.5 PB Main Computational System Cray XT528 0.7 PB (Tier0) 1.4 PB (Tier1) System 2 Interim System System 1 Main Computational System KMAs 3 rd Supercomputer – Initial Phase - 18 -

19 Cray Next Generation XE6 (Baker) MPP System –Processor : AMD 2.1GHz (12 core) Initial PhaseTechnology Peak Perform. TFlop/s StorageBackup InterimCray Baker1612 TB 4.5 PB Main Computational System Cray Baker683 0.7 PB (Tier0) 1.4 PB (Tier1) KMAs 3 rd Supercomputer – Final Phase System 1 - Operational Main Computational System System 3 Interim System System 2 – Research/Backup Main Computational System - 19 - Cray XE6

20 Construction : June 2008 ~ Jan 2010 Official Opening Ceremony: Feb 2010 Total Cost: 25.3 billion won(about 23M USD) Total Construction Area : 23,092 / KMA HQ: ~16,500 Building area: 7,052, 3 rd floors Electricity: 250 % greater than HQ UPS: 475 % greater than HQ Cooling : 360 % greater than HQ KMAs Supercomputer Center

21 - 21 - Upcoming NWP Changes Global NWP System Improving the TC Bogussing Scheme for Global NWP –Current Bogussing Method : Wind Bogussing (Obs. Bogussing) –New Development : Wind + Sea Level Pressure Bogussing –Effect : Improvement in intensity (and track) of simulated TCs –Operational Application : Q4 2010 Intensity error reduced Track error reduced

22 - 22 - Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer New Global Ensemble Prediction System GDAPS T213L40 (GBEPS) –Model : GDAPS –T213 (0.5625x0.5625) –Bred Vector + Factor Rotation –No Model Error Simulation –16+1 members (x2, 00/12UTC) –10 day Forecast –6-hourly 3DVAR Cycle 00, 12UTC Forecast UM N320L50 (MOGREPS-G) –Model : The Unified Model –N320 (0.5625x0.375) –ETKF –Stochastic Physics included –23+1 members –15 day Forecast –Control I.C. from Deterministic Model 00, 12UTC Forecast Currently on its Pre-operational Real-time Test Operational Run : Q1 2011 –Platform : Cray XE6 (final phase of KMAs 3 rd supercomputer) RMSE SPREAD Solid : OPER Dashed : N320L50 Results for Summer 2010 CPRSS_New CPRSS_Old

23 - 23 - Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer Resolution Change of Global NWP Model UM N320L50 –N320 (640x481 / ~40km) –50 Vertical Levels (~63km) –UM Version : vn6.6 –4DVAR Inner Loop : N108 UM N512L70 –N512 (1024x769 / ~25km) –70 Vertical Levels (~80km) –UM Version : vn7.5 or later –4DVAR Inner Loop : N144 Operational Run : Q2 2011 on Cray XE6 N320 N512 Max. Height in South Korea domain –N320 orog. : 523m –N512 orog. : 692m

24 - 24 - Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer Regional 4DVAR UM System UM 12kmL38 –12km (0.11x0.11 deg) –38 Vertical Levels (~39km) –UM Version : vn6.6 –Initialized from Global Model (Cold-Start) –00, 12UTC Forecast (+72 hours) UM-4DVAR 12kmL38 –12km (0.11x0.11 deg) –70 Vertical Levels (~80km) –UM Version : vn7.5 or later –6-hourly Atmos. 4DVAR + Global Surface Analysis Downscaled –00, 12UTC Forecast (+72 hours) Operational Run : Q2 2011 on Cray XE6

25 - 25 - Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer Local High-Impact Weather Forecasting System UM 1.5kmL70 –New NWP System –Horizontal Resolution : 1.5km Variable Grid –Vertical Levels : 70 Levels (~39km) –UM Version : vn7.5 or later –Data Assimilation : 3-hourly 3DVAR Cycle Radar Data Pre-Operational Parallel Run : Q3 2011 Operational Run : Q2 2012 12km Domain 1.5km Domain

26 Two Tracks on the Future NWP at KMA Successful UM operation on new supercomputer Modification and Improvement Development of our own NWP System Own Techniques PBL scheme, Microphysics scheme, Gravity wave, own dynamics (DFS) - 26 -

27 - 27 - Development of an Original NWP System Long-Term Development Plan (11~19) 1 st Phase : Initial Development Stage – Development of Core Modules : Dynamics Core, Physical Parameterization Schemes, etc. 2 nd Phase : Growing Stage – Production of a Prototype Numerical Model : Combining Developed Modules and Preliminary Test 3 rd Phase : Mature (Pre-Operational) Stage – Stabilization, Performance Enhancement : Preparation for the Operational Implementation # New organization out of KMA! # Invitation for the position of the head of new organization soon!

28 Climate Prediction Division CPD LRF Climate Outlook International Cooperation Climate Monitoring Technical Development

29 LRF and Climate Outlook 1-month Forecast - 3 rd, 13 th and 23 rd of the month 3-month Forecast - 23 rd of the month Seasonal Climate Outlook - Feb. for Summer, May for Autumn, Aug. for Winter, Nov. for Spring

30 ProcedureProcedure Global SST Prediction Model Global Dynamic Model Statistical Analysis Model APCC MME(15 model, 8 contries) WMO LC-LRFMME(12 GPCs) Discussion (CPD) LRF ET Meeting (season)Intl Joint Meeting (summer, winter) Discussion Press Release Briefing Disaster Prevention System KMA Homepage Mass Media, …

31 World Best 365, WMO LC-LRFMME No. of Members : 106 members from 45 countries

32 World Best 365, Future Plan UM based Atmospheric Model - Operational Forecast System is going to be replaced with the UM based atmospheric model(N144L38) by 2011 GloSea4 - According to the agreement between UKMO and KMA on the joint seasonal forecast system(10.6.22), KMA is currently working to move its seasonal forecast system to the GloSea4(HadGEM3N96L85/ORCA1L75) - Jan 2011: Migration of KMA-GloSea4 from Cray-XT5 to Cray-XE6 - 2011: Testing of KMA-GloSea4 with real-time ICs from UKMO - 2012: Semi-operational run of KMA-Glosea4 with real-time ICs from UKMO - 2013: Operational run of KMA-GloSea4

33 Thank You for Your Attention See you again in Korea or other countries!!

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