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Recent Progresses in Numerical Weather Prediction and HPC at KMA

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Presentation on theme: "Recent Progresses in Numerical Weather Prediction and HPC at KMA"— Presentation transcript:

1 Recent Progresses in Numerical Weather Prediction and HPC at KMA
Hee-Dong Yoo Korea Meteorological Administration 26th WGNE Meeting October 18-22, 2010, Tokyo

2 Major Changes in Operational NWP System

3 Major NWP Changes Global (Deterministic medium-range)
T426L40 (GDAPS) GSM from JMA 3DVAR Operation since 1997 UM N320L50 The Unified Model from UKMO 4DVAR Operation since May 2010 Regional (Deterministic short-range) 30kmL33 (RDAPS) MM5 Model FDDA Operation since 1997 10kmL40 (KWRF) WRF ARW Model Operation since 2007 UM 12kmL38 The Unified Model from UKMO Initialized from Global UM Operation since May 2010 L.B.C. from Global UM - 3 -

4 UM Implementation Background
KMA decided to import the Unified Model as a next-generation NWP system (Q4 ’07) UM Research license (Q4 ’07) Collaboration Agreement – including Science Plan - between KMA and UK Met Office (Operational License, Q2 ’08) Routine operation of global/regional UM started (Q2 ’08) Initialized from UK Met Office’s initial condition Global D.A. cycle for UM including ODB implementation (’08~’09) Migration of UM system to the 3rd supercomputer (Q4 ’09) Parallel run of UM system on Cray XT5 Interim (March ’10~) Operational run of UM system on Cray XT5 (14th May ’10~) - 4 -

5 Operational UM System GTS/FTP COMIS Cray XT5 (3rd HPC)
Parallel Suite : ~ GTS/FTP Operational Suite : ~ Decoded Obs. (ODB) COMIS Pre-/Post-Server (New) Cray XT5 (3rd HPC) Global Model (UM N320L50) 10-day Forecast Data Assimilation Observation Pre-Processing Atmos. 4DVAR (VAR) Surf. Analysis (SURF) Obs. Pre-proc. System (OPS) Regional Model (UM 12km) Application/Statistical Models Post-Processing Regional Model (KWRF 10km) - 5 -

6 UM Configuration in KMA
Regional Horiz. : ~12km (540x432 / 0.11°x0.11°) Vert. : 38 layers (top ~ 39km) +72hrs Forecast Initialized from Global I.C. Version : UM 6.6 Global Horiz. : N320 (~40km / °x0.375°) Vert. : 50 layers (top ~ 60km) +252hr Forecast Initialized by 4DVAR - 6 -

7 Tide and Storm Surge (RTSM) Statistical/Digital Fcst.
Main Operational Models (’10.5~) MODELS Horiz. Resol. (Vert. Layers) Forecast Length Target UM (GLOBAL) 40km (50) 10 days Global Medium-range Fcst. GDAPS 30km (40) 55km (40) Global Medium-range (EPS) 110km (21) 120 days Seasonal Forecasting UM (REGIONAL) 12km (38) 72 hours East-Asia Short-range Fcst. RDAPS 30/10/5km (33) 66/24/24 hours KWRF 10 km (40) 66 hours East-Asia SRF – UM-based KLAPS 5km 12 hours Korean Peninsula Wave Models (Wave Watch-III) 60km GWW3(Global) – UM-based 8km RWW3(E-Asia) – UM-based 1km 24 hours CWW3(Coastal) – UM-based Sand Dust Model (ADAM) 30km Yellow-Dust (East Asia) – UM-based Tide and Storm Surge (RTSM) Regional Tide & Storm Surge Typhoon Model (DBAR) 35km Track & Intensity Statistical/Digital Fcst. - 2-10 days UM-based

8 Operational NWP Models – Unified Model
UM-GLOBAL UM-REGIONAL Governing Eq. Complete equation (Non-hydrostatic) Horiz. Resolution N320 (40km x0.375) 12km (0.11x0.11) Vertical Layers L50 (top ~ 63km) L38 (top ~ 39km) Forecast Length 10.5 days (252 hours) 3 days (72 hours) Timestep Size 900 sec 240 sec I.C./ Data Assimilation 4DVAR Downscaling from global initial condition Spatial Discretization Finite Difference method Time integ. / Advection Semi-implicit Semi-Lagrangian scheme Radiation Process Edwards-Slingo general 2-stream scheme Surface Process MOSES-II land-surface scheme PBL Process MOSES-II Non-local PBL Convection Process Mass flux convection with CAPE closure Microphysics Mixed-phase precipitation Gravity Wave Drag G.W. drag due to orography (GWDO) Surface B. C. Surface Analysis + Climatology Operation Frequency Twice daily (00/12 UTC) / 6hour D.A. cycle Twice daily (00/12 UTC) - 8 -

9 GDAPS (Deterministic)
Operational NWP Models – Others / Global / Atmos. GDAPS (Deterministic) GBEPS (Ensemble) Base Model GSM (Global Spectral Model from JMA) Governing Eq. Primitive Equation (Hydrostatic) Horiz. Resolution T426 ( x ) T213 (0.5625x0.5625) Vertical Layers L40 (top : 0.4 hPa) Forecast Length 252 hours 240 hours I.C./ Data Assimilation 3DVAR Breeding Method + Factor Rotation / 3DVAR Ensemble Size - 17*2 (12 hour time-lag) Spatial Discretization Spectral Transformation Time integration Semi-implicit Scheme Radiation Process SW : Lacis and Hansen (1974) / LW : JMA (Sugi et al., 1989) Surface Process SiB (Simple Biosphere, Sellers, 1986) PBL Process Non-Local PBL (Holtslag and Boville, 1993) Convection Process Kuo Type (Kuo, 1974) Microphysics Large-scale condensation (Sundqvist, 1978) Gravity Wave Drag GWD due to orography (Iwasaki et al., 1989) GWD due to cumulus convection (Chun and Baik, 1988) Operation Frequency Twice daily (00/12 UTC) 6hour 3DVAR cycle - 9 -

10 Operational NWP Models – Others / Regional / Atmos.
RDAPS KWRF 30km 10km 5km Base Model MM5 WRF ARW Dynamic Frame Non-hydrostatic Horiz. Resolution 30km(171x191) 10km(160x178) 5km(141x141) 10km(574x514) Vertical Layers 33 Layers / ~50 hPa 40 Layers / ~50 hPa Forecast Length 66 hours 24 hours I.C./Data Assim. FDDA 3hr cycle (IAU) 1-way interact. 3DVAR / DFI Lateral B.C. Relaxation (12hr) Time & inflow/outflow dependent relaxation (3hr) Updated every 6 hrs (global UM) Spatial Discretization Finite Difference Radiation Process Cloud Radiation RRTM Surface Process 5-layer Soil Model Noah LSM PBL Process MRF PBL YSU PBL Convection Process New Kain-Fritsch None Microphysics Mixed phase WSM6 - 10 -

11 Data Assimilation System – for Global UM
Observation Data and Global D.A. Observation DB : ODB CY32R3 Observations Used Surface (SYNOP/Ship/Buoy), Sonde (TEMP, Pilot, Wind Profiler), Aircraft, Satwind, AIRS (AQUA), Scatwind, IASI (MetOp), GPSRO (COSMIC), SSMIS ~80,000 observations per cycle (80~85% compared to UK Met Office) Analysis Scheme : 4-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Analysis Time : 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC Cut-off Time : 2 hours 25 minutes for Early Analysis 6 hours 25 minutes for Update Analysis Spatial Resolution (Inner Model) : N108(1.67x1.11deg) L50 Assimilation Window : -3 hours to +3 hours of Analysis Time - 11 -

12 NWP Performance - Global
Forecast error comparison (GDAPS vs. UM) - 12 -

13 NWP Performance - Global
RMS error for 500 hPa Geopotential Height / N. Hemisphere Old (GDAPS) New (UM) +5days +3days - 13 -

14 NWP Performance - Global
Verification against Analysis Verification Period April ~ September 2010 ~15% enhancement compared to GDAPS for 500 hPa Geopotential Height (+120 hours)

15 NWP Performance - Regional (Precipitation)
Precipitation Verification (against 76 ASOS obs.) – UM versus KWRF KWRF(10km) UM12 The Regional UM outperforms KWRF Light Precipitation is significantly over-estimated in the UM UM(12km) – KWRF(10km) - 15 -

16 New Supercomputer and Upcoming NWP Changes

17 KMA’s Supercomputer ×90 ×37 Current Status (’10.10)
NEC SX-5/28M2 ~ 1st Supercomputer Theoretical performance 0.2 TFlops 2nd Supercomputer Theoretical performance 18.5 TFlops CRAY X1E 1024/MSP ~ ×90 3rd Supercomputer Theoretical performance 682.9 TFlops CRAY XE6 90,240 cores 2010 ~ ×37 Current Status (’10.10) - 1st phase of 3rd Supercomputer - Cray XT5 - 2,560 cores / TFlops - 17 -

18 Main Computational System
KMA’s 3rd Supercomputer – Initial Phase Cray XT5 MPP System with Lustre Global Parallel File System Processor : AMD 2.7GHz (4 core) Initial Phase Technology Peak Perform. TFlop/s Storage Backup Interim Cray XT5 14 12 TB 4.5 PB Main Computational System 28 0.7 PB (Tier0) 1.4 PB (Tier1) System 1 Main Computational System System 2 Interim System - 18 - Cray Inc. ConfidentialCray Proprietary 18

19 Main Computational System Main Computational System
KMA’s 3rd Supercomputer – Final Phase Cray Next Generation XE6 (Baker) MPP System Processor : AMD 2.1GHz (12 core) Initial Phase Technology Peak Perform. TFlop/s Storage Backup Interim Cray Baker 16 12 TB 4.5 PB Main Computational System 683 0.7 PB (Tier0) 1.4 PB (Tier1) Cray XE6 Cray XE6 System 1 - Operational Main Computational System System 2 – Research/Backup Main Computational System System 3 Interim System - 19 - Cray Inc. ConfidentialCray Proprietary 19

20 KMA’s Supercomputer Center
Construction : June ~ Jan 2010 Official Opening Ceremony: Feb 2010 Total Cost: billion won(about 23M USD) Total Construction Area : 23,092㎡ / KMA HQ: ~16,500㎡ Building area: 7,052㎡, 3rd floors Electricity: 250 % greater than HQ UPS: 475 % greater than HQ Cooling : 360 % greater than HQ 20

21 Upcoming NWP Changes Global NWP System
Improving the TC Bogussing Scheme for Global NWP Current Bogussing Method : Wind Bogussing (Obs. Bogussing) New Development : Wind + Sea Level Pressure Bogussing Effect : Improvement in intensity (and track) of simulated TCs Operational Application : Q4 2010 Intensity error reduced Track error reduced - 21 -

22 Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer
New Global Ensemble Prediction System GDAPS T213L40 (GBEPS) Model : GDAPS T213 (0.5625x0.5625) Bred Vector + Factor Rotation No Model Error Simulation 16+1 members (x2, 00/12UTC) 10 day Forecast 6-hourly 3DVAR Cycle , 12UTC Forecast UM N320L50 (MOGREPS-G) Model : The Unified Model N320 (0.5625x0.375) ETKF Stochastic Physics included 23+1 members 15 day Forecast Control I.C. from Deterministic Model 00, 12UTC Forecast RMSE SPREAD Solid : OPER Dashed : N320L50 Results for Summer 2010 CPRSS_New CPRSS_Old Currently on its Pre-operational Real-time Test Operational Run : Q1 2011 Platform : Cray XE6 (final phase of KMA’s 3rd supercomputer) - 22 -

23 Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer
Resolution Change of Global NWP Model UM N320L50 N320 (640x481 / ~40km) 50 Vertical Levels (~63km) UM Version : vn6.6 4DVAR Inner Loop : N108 UM N512L70 N512 (1024x769 / ~25km) 70 Vertical Levels (~80km) UM Version : vn7.5 or later 4DVAR Inner Loop : N144 N320 N512 Max. Height in South Korea domain N320 orog. : 523m N512 orog. : 692m Operational Run : Q on Cray XE6 - 23 -

24 Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer
Regional 4DVAR UM System UM 12kmL38 12km (0.11x0.11 deg) 38 Vertical Levels (~39km) UM Version : vn6.6 Initialized from Global Model (Cold-Start) 00, 12UTC Forecast (+72 hours) UM-4DVAR 12kmL38 70 Vertical Levels (~80km) UM Version : vn7.5 or later 6-hourly Atmos. 4DVAR + Global Surface Analysis Downscaled Operational Run : Q on Cray XE6 - 24 -

25 Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer
Local High-Impact Weather Forecasting System UM 1.5kmL70 New NWP System Horizontal Resolution : 1.5km Variable Grid Vertical Levels : 70 Levels (~39km) UM Version : vn7.5 or later Data Assimilation : 3-hourly 3DVAR Cycle Radar Data 12km Domain Pre-Operational Parallel Run : Q3 2011 Operational Run : Q2 2012 1.5km Domain - 25 -

26 Two Tracks on the Future NWP at KMA
Successful UM operation on new supercomputer Modification and Improvement Development of our own NWP System Own Techniques  PBL scheme, Microphysics scheme, Gravity wave, own dynamics (DFS) - 26 -

27 Development of an Original NWP System
Long-Term Development Plan (’11~’19) 1st Phase : Initial Development Stage Development of Core Modules : Dynamics Core, Physical Parameterization Schemes, etc. 2nd Phase : Growing Stage Production of a Prototype Numerical Model : Combining Developed Modules and Preliminary Test 3rd Phase : Mature (Pre-Operational) Stage Stabilization, Performance Enhancement : Preparation for the Operational Implementation # New organization out of KMA! # Invitation for the position of the head of new organization soon! - 27 -

28 Climate Prediction Division
LRF Climate Outlook CPD International Cooperation Climate Monitoring Technical Development

29 LRF and Climate Outlook
1-month Forecast - 3rd, 13th and 23rd of the month 3-month Forecast - 23rd of the month Seasonal Climate Outlook - Feb. for Summer, May for Autumn, Aug. for Winter, Nov. for Spring

30 Procedure Global SST Prediction Model Global Dynamic Model
Statistical Analysis Model APCC MME(15 model, 8 contries) WMO LC-LRFMME(12 GPCs) Discussion (CPD) LRF ET Meeting (season) Int’l Joint Meeting (summer, winter) Discussion Briefing Press Release Disaster Prevention System KMA Homepage Mass Media, …

31 WMO LC-LRFMME No. of Members : 106 members from 45 countries
No. of Members : 106 members from 45 countries 「World Best 365」 하늘을 친구처럼, 국민을 하늘처럼

32 Future Plan UM based Atmospheric Model
- Operational Forecast System is going to be replaced with the UM based atmospheric model(N144L38) by 2011 GloSea4 - According to the agreement between UKMO and KMA on the joint seasonal forecast system(’ ), KMA is currently working to move its seasonal forecast system to the GloSea4(HadGEM3N96L85/ORCA1L75) < Major Plan > - Jan 2011: Migration of KMA-GloSea4 from Cray-XT5 to Cray-XE6 - 2011: Testing of KMA-GloSea4 with real-time ICs from UKMO - 2012: Semi-operational run of KMA-Glosea4 with real-time ICs from UKMO - 2013: Operational run of KMA-GloSea4 「World Best 365」 하늘을 친구처럼, 국민을 하늘처럼

33 Thank You for Your Attention
See you again in Korea or other countries!!


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