Presentation on theme: "Rami Zaatari ICT Applications Section ICT Division www.escwa.un.org 8-9 June 2012 Regional Workshop on ICT Indicators: from Policy & Strategy to Impact."— Presentation transcript:
Rami Zaatari ICT Applications Section ICT Division 8-9 June 2012 Regional Workshop on ICT Indicators: from Policy & Strategy to Impact Impact of ICT and Selected e-Services on Socio-Economic Development
Outline Impact of ICTs Complexity of Assessment: Impact/Region Specific International/Regional Stakeholders The Role of ESCWA Methodologies of Impact Assessment Impact of ICT and selected e-Services on socio- economic development ICT Impact Analysis – In Practice Conclusion
Impact of ICTs ICTs have changed the way we live work and communicate WSIS - ICTs can have a tremendous positive impact as an instrument of sustainable development WSIS called on all stakeholders to benefit from the opportunities offered by ICTs Important impact areas to consider based on the 10 WSIS targets (UNCTAD) –Impacts of ICT access, especially on poor and rural communities; –Impacts of ICT use on educational outcomes and the importance of school curricula in preparing students for the information society; –Impacts of ICT networks on health institutions and health outcomes; –Impacts arising from the availability of e-government services; –Impacts of improving access to information and knowledge by suitable access to electronic content.
Measuring impact in any field is difficult; Added difficulty for ICTs: complex, multi-faceted landscape of ICT, rapidly changing nature; Diverse nature of impact: macro, micro, direct, indirect, short-term, long term, qualitative, quantitative, social, economic, environmental,… Impact is not always positive, could be negative; Various frameworks and models; Lack of data and data collection; No internationally comparable indicators are available yet; Complexity of Assessment: Impact Specific
ICT Impact Analysis – In Practice The S-curve model is the one most adopted for ICT impact measurement; Misunderstanding that impact analysis is sequential; i.e. readiness must be achieved, then intensity and only then can ICT have an impact; This is not the message – impact analysis can be performed at various stages of maturity and in various ways.
Different levels of country development: Developed, Developing and leased developed Lack of awareness and capacity building in ICT and IS measurement; Limited statistical capabilities; Policies and Statistics: the missing link; Canopy if ICT is spread among different ministries, agencies, entities (MoICT, MoE, MoC, TRA, NSO, etc..). Complexity of Assessment: Region Specific
Striking differences in the Arab Region Area of InterestGCCNon-GCC Developed Countries GDP Per Capita HighLow to ModerateHigh Family Size Large Small Expatriates LargeSmall Digital Divide Low to ModerateModerate to HighLow Adult illiteracy rate Low to ModerateLow to HighLow to Zero Comparison of Arab versus developed countries in selected areas
OECD, ITU UNCTAD, WB, UN Regional Commissions, IDRC, Donors are all active; Their contributions vary from the 3-stage impact analysis model, to various socio-economic impact models: - Strong evidence of positive impact on GDP growth, employment creation, and increased labor productivity; Partnership on Measuring ICT for Development (2004) plays a role in IS measurement including measuring the Impact of ICT Research is ongoing; Task Group on Impact (2007), led by OECD with ESCWA as a member. International/Regional Stakeholders
Plays an active role on all matters related to IS and ICT measurement including capacity building (national, regional, and international levels) Contributes to the work of the Partnership and collaborates with ITU, UNCTAD, AITRS, MCIT on research and projects; Dedicates a track in its work plan on Measurement and Impact of ICT (Studies, EGM, Workshop) from 2009 until The Role of ESCWA
Impact of ICT on Community Development in ESCWA Member Countries (Pub. 2009); Building a Common Benchmarking Model for the ESCWA Region (Pub. 2010); EGM on Standardizing Information Society Measurements in the ESCWA Region (2011); Awareness workshop on Standardizing Information Society Measurement Models (2011); Impact of ICT and selected e-Services on socio- economic Development (Pub. end of 2012); EGM on the role of ICT in socio-economic development (2013); Impact of ICT on Arab youth (2013). Our Latest and Future Work
Source: UNCTAD, Measuring the Impacts of Information and Communication Technology for Development, 2011 Methodologies of Impact Assessment Methodologies Strengths (+)Weaknesses (-)Notes Analytical techniques Objectivity Use of a existing data Model assumptions Reliability and availability of input data Can be performed at the macro, sectoral, and micro- economic levels Statistical Surveys Reliability of output Perception questions provide data on causal links Expensive, require time Perception questions lack objectivity Can be a direct source of data on ICT impacts Case Studies Offers a wide range of approaches and data sources Flexibility of scope but findings not generalisable. source of much of the data on ICT impacts Panel StudiesCan provide good baseline data and account for time lags Expensive and may suffer from unit attrition over time. longitudinal data, may be survey- based
Timeline: most economic changes take significant amounts of time. Statistical studies correlating access to ICTs with GDP growth have only been possible through the use of longitudinal studies; Subjective Indicators: it has been argued that without subjective indicators, impact measurement are bound to be inadequate; Baseline: (something to measure against) baselining will greatly empower analysts to understand the impact; ICT impact assessment is better understood if it considers the perspectives of target groups. Considerations Related to Methodology
Impact of ICT and selected e-Services on socio-economic development (end 2012) Upcoming Research/Study
Allows countries in the region to assess and measure and the impact of selected e-services on social and economic development in terms of: improved efficiency and productivity; effectiveness of government processes, reducing costs and optimizing resources; Policy makers: e-Services that should be prioritized for maximum impact on socio-economic development. Objective of the Study
WSIS Geneva PoA, action line C7, stresses that ICT applications (e-Services) can support sustainable development; Benefits of Streaming ICTs in traditional services: Improves efficiency; Saves time and effort; Speeds up processing; Promotes better participation; Enhances transparency; Facilitates access to governmental services and public information. Why E-Services?
Measuring impact of e-services is contextual and not easily quantifiable; Most e-services projects in the region has focused on ICT implementation side, vs. understanding the impact on citizens/targeted communities; Existing data indicates intriguing research questions on ICT impact. Impact of E-Services
Combination of 3 methodologies: Analytical techniques, Statistical Surveys, Case Studies; 1.Analysis and synthesis; 2.Case study research: Drawing upon research from the International Communities and the ESCWA member countries, illustrative case studies will be examined for lessons learned; 3.Statistical surveys: Utilizing online data collection mechanisms, representative sampling and extrapolative modeling will be undertaken. Proposed Study Methodology
Practical Examples Analyze changes in relation to one another to find relationships/associations; Identify changes in pattern, and shifts in trend; Explain trends in relation to policy/environment changes for country/region;
HDI as a Socio-Economic Indicator HDI Index – ESCWA member countries Will analyse countries in top, lower and mid-tier to give a generic overviewWill analyse countries in top, lower and mid-tier to give a generic overview
HDI– ESCWA member countries Covering GCC, Levant and LDCs Mid-tier - Oman part of GCC hence we will look at Jordan for this example Lower tier – Sudan lack of data hence we will look at Yemen (United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Yemen) Covering GCC, Levant and LDCs Mid-tier - Oman part of GCC hence we will look at Jordan for this example Lower tier – Sudan lack of data hence we will look at Yemen (United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Yemen)
HDI vs. Broadband HDI Index vs broadband subscriptions (per 100) Source: HDI – UNDP HDR report country profiles Broadband subscriptions (per 100) - The World Bank
HDI vs. Broadband HDIIndex vs. broadband subscriptions (per 100) HDI Index vs. broadband subscriptions (per 100)Impact/trend** related shift in trend Source: HDI – UNDP HDR report country profiles Broadband subscriptions (per 100) - The World Bank Further investigation required
HDI vs. Internet HDI Index vs. Internet users (per 100) Source: HDI – UNDP HDR report country profiles Internet users (per 100) - The World Bank
HDI vs. Internet HDI Index vs Internet users (per 100) ** Impact/trend** To investigate further Source: HDI – UNDP HDR report country profiles Internet users (per 100) - The World Bank Further investigation required
HDI vs Mobile HDI Index vs mobile subscriptions (per 100) Source: HDI – UNDP HDR report country profiles Mobile subscriptions (per 100) - The World Bank
HDI vs. Mobile HDI Index vs. mobile subscriptions (per 100) ** Impact/trend** Largely linear correlation and sudden change, perhaps policy related? Source: HDI – UNDP HDR report country profiles Mobile subscriptions (per 100) - The World Bank 26 Further investigation required
Relationships and Associations HDI is a composite indicator. Correlation in HDI implies correlation in a sub index which makes up HDI i.e. Health Education Living standards Other composite indicators can be examined in order to determine further research and the direction of our study. Further investigation required
Taking the example of UAE mobile subscriptions (per 100)… And expanding to include other years. We can: Try to explain the anomaly between for mobile subscriptions through wider policy/environmental changes; Or try to predict projections - i.e. estimated mobile rate for 2011 based on an established trend or previously established relationship with baseline indicator (if any). e.g. Trend analysis and projections
Other Examples – Civil Society Tip of the iceberg… Indicators in comparison to registered Civil Society Organizations (CSO) Using Jordan (considered average in terms of maturity) Compared against the regional average for registered CSO Source: UNDESA – csonet.org Initial trends can be seen Further investigation required
Other Examples… e-Services;e-Services; Labor Market;Labor Market; Education;Education; Skills/Graduates;Skills/Graduates; Migration;Migration; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI);Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Technology Transfer;Technology Transfer; Research & Development;Research & Development; Patent Registration;Patent Registration; Other social indicators;Other social indicators; Other economic indicators;Other economic indicators;
Conclusions Findings present some interesting results, however: Further investigation is required to find deeper correlations;Further investigation is required to find deeper correlations; Sample data used as an example;Sample data used as an example; Comparison between more indicators needed;Comparison between more indicators needed; Timeframe of indicators should be expanded to look at longer periods;Timeframe of indicators should be expanded to look at longer periods; Trends, shifts and changes must be mapped against wider changes i.e. policy, regional etc;Trends, shifts and changes must be mapped against wider changes i.e. policy, regional etc; Lack of sufficient data for the region should be remedied.Lack of sufficient data for the region should be remedied.