Presentation on theme: "Global trends in telecom development Dr Tim Kelly (ITU) Future development of Telecoms and Strategic Initiatives of the ITU HKUST, 7 th December 2000 The."— Presentation transcript:
Global trends in telecom development Dr Tim Kelly (ITU) Future development of Telecoms and Strategic Initiatives of the ITU HKUST, 7 th December 2000 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its membership. Tim Kelly can be contacted by at:
Global trends in telecom development The state of the industry Fixed-lines Mobile The Internet Rising competition ITU research on selected key policy issues IP-based networks Interconnection Broadband networks Third Generation Mobile Networks
Projection of growth trends, fixed and cellular subscribers and intl traffic, Source: ITU '000 1'200 1'400 1'600 1'800 2' Fixed lines and mobile subscribers worldwide (millions) Billions of minutes of international telephone traffic Fixed lines Mobile subscribers International traffic ActualProjected
Service revenue (US$ bn) ActualProjected Domestic Telephone/fax Int'l Mobile Other: Data, Internet, Leased lines, telex, etc Projection of revenue growth (US$bn) Source: ITU.
Internet hosts worldwide (million) 1993-July 1999 Compound Annual Growth Rate = 75.8% Source: ITU Internet Reports 2001: IP Telephony, July 00
Increasing competition: By no. of countries, by service, Source: ITU Telecommunication Regulatory Database local int. long distance
Increasingly competitive markets: International traffic, in billions of minutes New carrier in competitive market Incumbent carrier in competitive market Monopoly Source: ITU/TeleGeography Inc. Direction of Traffic Database.
ITU research on key policy issues (1): IP-based networks IP Telephony Workshop, June (www.itu.int/iptel)www.itu.int/iptel World Telecom Policy Forum, March (www.itu.int/wtpf)www.itu.int/wtpf Topic of ITU Internet Report, published December 2000 International Internet Rec. D.50 approved in Montreal Numbering and domains ENUM workshop, Geneva, 17 January 2001
ITU research on key policy issues (2): Interconnection Interconnection Development Symposium, Geneva, September (www.itu.int/treg)www.itu.int/treg Trends in Telecom Reform 2000/01: Interconnection Fixed-Mobile Interconnection Workshop held in Geneva, September (www.itu.int/interconnect)www.itu.int/interconnect Case studies conducted for China/HK, Finland, India and Mexico
ITU research on key policy issues (3): 2001 Work Programme Internet diffusion Case studies carried out for Bolivia, Egypt, Hungary, Nepal, Singapore and Uganda; More planned for 2001 (www.itu.int/ti/casestudies)www.itu.int/ti/casestudies Regulatory implications of broadband Workshop in Geneva, 2-4 May 2001 Case studies of Australia, Italy, Malaysia, Rep. of Korea, South Africa 3G mobile Workshop on licensing of 3G mobile to be held in Geneva, September 2001 MoU on free circulation of 3G terminals? Creation of Special Study Group on IMT-2000