1. Global trends in telecom development Dr Tim Kelly (ITU) Future development of Telecoms and Strategic Initiatives of the ITU HKUST, 7 th December 2000 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its membership. Tim Kelly can be contacted by e-mail at: Tim.Kelly@itu.int.

2. Global trends in telecom development The state of the industry Fixed-lines Mobile The Internet Rising competition ITU research on selected key policy issues IP-based networks Interconnection Broadband networks Third Generation Mobile Networks

3. Projection of growth trends, fixed and cellular subscribers and intl traffic, 1995-2005 Source: ITU. 0 200 400 600 800 1'000 1'200 1'400 1'600 1'800 2'000 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005 Fixed lines and mobile subscribers worldwide (millions) 0 50 100 150 200 250 Billions of minutes of international telephone traffic Fixed lines Mobile subscribers International traffic ActualProjected

4. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 90919293949596979899000102 Service revenue (US$ bn) ActualProjected Domestic Telephone/fax Int'l Mobile Other: Data, Internet, Leased lines, telex, etc Projection of revenue growth (US$bn) Source: ITU.

5. Internet hosts worldwide (million) 1993-July 1999 Compound Annual Growth Rate = 75.8% Source: ITU Internet Reports 2001: IP Telephony, www.isc.org, www.ripe.net.www.isc.org 2.3 4.7 9.5 16.2 29.9 43.7 71.8 90.8 1993199419951996199719981999July 00

6. Increasing competition: By no. of countries, by service, 1995-2000 Source: ITU Telecommunication Regulatory Database. 49 68 36 53 57 18 16 13 39 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 199519972000 local int. long distance

7. Increasingly competitive markets: International traffic, in billions of minutes 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1990199119921993199419951996199719981999 New carrier in competitive market Incumbent carrier in competitive market Monopoly Source: ITU/TeleGeography Inc. Direction of Traffic Database.

8. ITU research on key policy issues (1): IP-based networks IP Telephony Workshop, June 14-16 2000 (www.itu.int/iptel)www.itu.int/iptel World Telecom Policy Forum, March 7-9 2001 (www.itu.int/wtpf)www.itu.int/wtpf Topic of ITU Internet Report, published December 2000 International Internet Rec. D.50 approved in Montreal Numbering and domains ENUM workshop, Geneva, 17 January 2001

9. ITU research on key policy issues (2): Interconnection Interconnection Development Symposium, Geneva, 20-22 September (www.itu.int/treg)www.itu.int/treg Trends in Telecom Reform 2000/01: Interconnection Fixed-Mobile Interconnection Workshop held in Geneva, 20- 22 September (www.itu.int/interconnect)www.itu.int/interconnect Case studies conducted for China/HK, Finland, India and Mexico

10. ITU research on key policy issues (3): 2001 Work Programme Internet diffusion Case studies carried out for Bolivia, Egypt, Hungary, Nepal, Singapore and Uganda; More planned for 2001 (www.itu.int/ti/casestudies)www.itu.int/ti/casestudies Regulatory implications of broadband Workshop in Geneva, 2-4 May 2001 Case studies of Australia, Italy, Malaysia, Rep. of Korea, South Africa 3G mobile Workshop on licensing of 3G mobile to be held in Geneva, September 2001 MoU on free circulation of 3G terminals? Creation of Special Study Group on IMT-2000