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Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November 2012 1 1 | Industry Analyst Network | June 2009 Public Private Partnership: aspects of national model implementation.

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Presentation on theme: "Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November 2012 1 1 | Industry Analyst Network | June 2009 Public Private Partnership: aspects of national model implementation."— Presentation transcript:

1 Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November | Industry Analyst Network | June 2009 Public Private Partnership: aspects of national model implementation Natasa Gospic 1, Milan Jankovic 2, Dragan Bogojević 3 1 Univesity of Belgrade, Traffic and Transport Engineering Faculty, Belgrade, 2 Univesity of Belgrade, School of Electrical Engineering, Belgrade, 3 ICT-INFO, Belgrade, Serbia

2 Agenda Introduction: Public Private Partnership (PPP): Academia approach Gap model and role of the PPP (Authors WB & ITU) Proposal for National model of the NGN and BB deployment and its decomposition Aspects of national model implementations National Broadband Network: Multi-layer open access model Serbian PPP Delphi Survey Proposals and Conclusions 2

3 REGULATORS METODOLOGY -PROPOSAL FOR US POLICY- CREATION OF US PROJECT – Preparation of detailed overview of the situation of telecom infrastructure and telecom service provisioning within the whole territory of the country – Proposal for scope and content of US – Financial options – Recommendations for US implementation Public discussion US implementation Project development is done by University Belgrade, TTEF

4 PROJECT Data base – Development of Main Data Base (all settlements in country – in Serbia) – Locations (Settlements) without fixed telecom services (0% penetration) – Locations with low penetration (less then 4% and less then 10%) – Identification of areas lacking mobile signal – DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIST OF CRITICAL SETTLEMENTS – Elements for techno-economic analysis Criteria for definition of critical settlements for US – Basic : + 20 households and/or + 50 inhabitants – Additional: no mobile signal – critical inhabitants index (2002/1991) school, post office, ambulance, on the border to EU.... Structuring the settlements in the list of critical settlements for US – Number of inhabitants – Potential tourist locations – Natural resources – Requirements for NB and BB access Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November

5 Academia Proposal for NB US and BB US per region Scenario A NB US 1.Pčinjski 2.Jablanički 3.Raški 4.Pirotski 5.Zlatiborski 6.Nišavski 7.Toplički 8.Rasinski Scenario B BB US 1.Zapadno-bački 2.Sremski 3.Podunavski 4.Braničevski 5.Srednje-banatski 6.Severno-banatski 7.Moravički 8.Severno-bački 9.Južno-banatski 10.Južno-bački 11.Kolubarski 12.Borski 13.Grad Beograd 14.Pomoravski 15.Zaječarski 16.Mačvanski i 17.Šumadijski 5 Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November 2012 Serbian regional organization 2008: 24 regions and city of Belgrade This proposal is not endorsed!

6 Word Bank: Gap model, theoretical framework for UAS* Over last few years operators have bridged the market efficiency gap for voice The smart subsidy zone has narrowed The true access gap is typically last 5% of total population, but 20% in rural areas 6 Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November 2012 *Source: Telecom Regulation Handbook, Universal Service: Distinctions Within the Access Gap, WB 2011

7 Authors proposal for a national model of the NGN and BB deployment* *Sources: Gospic & Bogojevic, NGN Deployment in Developing Countries, ITU-D Forum for Arab Region, Dec Bogojevic & Gospic, Modeling of NGN deployment, African Journal of Business Management, July, Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November 2012 PwSNPwSN PWSN- People with special needs

8 Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November ANALYTICAL AND STRUCTURAL FRAMEWORK To transform the proposed framework into a model for the particular devC, it is necessary: – To determine the existing level of access, – To determine frontiers of market efficiency, – To determine affordability frontiers in relation with household income – To determine sustainability frontiers in relation to the potential investment cost Also in order to define structural components of the model it is necessary to determine the following: – Detailed input data related to market-specific features; – Costs for implementation of possible technologies – Algorithms that represent the process of building the infrastructure, based on geography, population, and penetration; – Revenue (per customer and total) and – Calculation of the net profit and ROI

9 Model decomposition* *Source: N. Gospic & D. Bogojevic, ITU Cross Regional Seminar, Chisinau Moldova, Sep Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November 2012

10 Application of the proposed Analytical Framework for Serbia The frontier for the existing level of acceptance is set to 600 and the affordability frontier at 300. (The average monthly income of households in Serbia in September 2012 is amounted to around 500 ; for illustration, the average net salary amounted to 352). Research into the Serbian territory covered by ADSL and 3G services indicated that market oriented methods lead to good coverage in urban areas and poor coverage in rural areas.

11 Frontiers for the Serbian national model (the end of 2010) Source: Bogojevic & Gospic, Modeling of NGN deployment, African Journal of Business Management, July, Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November 2012 RECOMMENDATION: Develop the project to define frontiers and data Pilot project to test this framework

12 GOVERNMENTS ROLE The government responsibilities frontiers are indicated (100% of population) The Government financial resources have to be directed towards the development of services provided to citizens (e-Government, e-Health, e-Education, e-Procurement) in partnership with private sector. Development of National Broadband Network –NBN (Strategy for e-communication development in RS ) National Commission for Broadband (high level officials) Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November

13 First layer: open access passive network Second layer: open access passive network Interconnection points Level playing field First layer: open access passive network Second layer: open access passive network Interconnection points Level playing field Coverage Bitrate Social and economic advantages Coverage Bitrate Social and economic advantages Establish a new company to build NBN? Reasonable profit and return on investment (ROI) Affordable prices Efficient investments Reasonable profit and return on investment (ROI) Affordable prices Efficient investments How to build the NATIONAL BROADBAND NETWORK (NBN)? Transparent work Fair competition Guaranteed coverage Transparent work Fair competition Guaranteed coverage Government budget Bank loans Supplier credit Public/private partnership Government budget Bank loans Supplier credit Public/private partnership FTTx, Wireless/satellite technology selection based on technical and economic analysis Technology NBN project Regulation Financing Operation model Open access Business plan Goals 13 Source: M. Jankovic ITU Regional Forum for Europe on Broadband, September 2012, Tirana, Republic of Albania

14 Innovations in NBN design Multi-layer open access model Local governments offering a network will sell bandwidth to communication operators wholesale and service providers retail, instead of doing business with private persons. o Infrastructure operators offering passive network (dark fiber) o Operators offering active network (wholesale access) o Service operators offering innovative services such as IPTV, with end-users Service Bitrate Access right Underground infrastructure Underground infrastructure Optical fiber Infrastructure operator (mainly local governments) Infrastructure operator (mainly local governments) RSP Vertical service operator RSP The main role of the state: By applying this model, the NBN developers can further be divided as follows: Create – Universal coverage – Open access – Fair competition Stimulate cooperation through partnerships (private/public sector...) 14 Source: M. Jankovic ITU Regional Forum for Europe on Broadband, September 2012, Tirana, Republic of Albania

15 Serbia BB4All situation Serbia adopted basic package of documents: Strategy of IS Development until 2020, Strategy of e-communication in Serbia from 2010 to 2020, Law on Electronic Communications and Strategy of broadband development up to Strategy of IS Development has set objective to provide all citizens of the Serbia with high speed Internet up to 100 Mbps. Strategy of e- communications, among others, has promoted model of national network based on passive optical infrastructure The appropriate action plans, resources and government activities in order to achieve objectives are still not officially prepared. Documents do not recognize PPP models and state subsidies. Examples and the proposed model indicate that development of PPP policy is important. Regulatory activities in this sense are very crucial. Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November

16 APPLICATION OF THE PPP – WHAT ARE EXPERTS OPINIONS? Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November

17 PPP Delphi Survey for application of the PPP and Analytical Framework Questionnaire on the position of public-private partnerships in the development of broadband Internet access and role of PPP in Serbia is in progress (I phase of Delphi method) Questionnaire sent to 30 Serbian experts (Academia, Regulator, Government, Private sector) first week of November 2012 For the moment answers received from 18 experts. Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November

18 ANSWERS ON QUESTIONNAIRE Consensus on questions – Who is the key player in the implementation of BB to all citizens of Serbia?. Both the government and the market should be included – Private operators will not invest in between sustainability and government frontiers All experts are agreed (Average 9.13, Median 10) – Political support is enough for implementation of Digital Agenda for Serbia Majority did not agreed (Average 3.00, Median 2) – Is financing using PPP for BB applicable? All experts agreed (87%) – Is it necessary to define methods of Government intervention? All experts agreed (87%). However, some comments refer that Government has no capacity for that, what could delay implementation Different experts opinions on questions – Implementation of National Strategy for Information Society – Realization of National Broadband Network – Government investment for BB Additional comments – Lack of e-services in local language will slow down BB – Low level of ICT skills will slow down BB – Domestic industry does not exist any more

19 Top ten proposals 1.Definition and Scope of UAS have to be changed within time according to the countrys situation (Scope: US + UA => BB_UAS). 2.Broadband UAS policies should to migrate to Broadband policies (rural) to ensure Broadband for all. 3.Highlight of needs for innovation and creativity in identification of new services within UAS, like digital Broadcasting (BB_UAS + Digital Broadcasting => BB_UASB). 4.Commence with promotion of new services from e-Government package and their impact (eGov + eEDU + eHelth => BB_UASBG). 5.Identification of the broadband infrastructure serving for all purposes, including Critical Telecommunications Infrastructure (CTI). Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November

20 Top ten proposals 6.Definition and implementation of National model for BB deployment, with identification of non-sustainable areas, which should be served with broadband Universal Service/Access, and be the scope of government support and/or PPP. 7.Recognition that multi stakeholder approach is only financial solution, with clear role of governments state intervention. 8.Monitoring mechanism and benchmarking are critical factor. 9.Starting as soon as possible with pilot projects based on the proposed analytical model for investigating the limits of market efficiency, availability and sustainability. 10.Starting with activities on public-private partnerships (PPP) on local government level. Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November

21 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Gospiic, Jankovic & Bogojevic, November


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