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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 Wind Forecasting at Hong Kong International Airport S.Y. Lau Hong Kong Observatory

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 2 types of user requirements Air traffic controllers –Runway change – headwind/tailwind Dry – 10 kt, Wet – 5 kt Nowcasting – extension of monitoring network through the installation of weather buoys and LIDAR Airlines/pilots –Crosswind limit Wide body plane - 20 kt Usually of the order of 18 to 24 hours – statistical and probabilistic forecast

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 Strong crosswind due to Kompasu

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 Probability of 20 kt crosswind if the forecast track is perfect Probability isopleths 4 17

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 Track perturbation Statistical –Based on past (1999-2002) forecast position errors Dynamical –Based on NWP model spread from model ensemble –ECMWF, JMA, NCEP, UKMO, JMA Typhoon model, HKO ORSM

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 25 perturbed tracks within 85% the bivariate Gaussian distribution for position uncertainties 11 2 2 33 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 910 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 Track of Kompasu July 2004

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 statistical dynamical

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 User Interface

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 Limitations Probability isopleths not separated according to TC intensity Size of TC not taken into account Asymmetric structure of TC not taken into account Arrival/presence of northeast monsoon could result in earlier onset of high crosswind

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 Thank you

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 Tornado on 6 Sep 2004

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 extension of monitoring network Nowcasting

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 AWARE AWARE (Anemometer-based Windshear Alerting Rules – Enhanced) launched in mid-2004 Based on wind readings at 6 runway anemometers & TMT & 5 weather buoys Alerts out of ground truths TMT Weather buoys Runway anemometers Weather buoy

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 AWARE alert

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 Merits of AWARE… Enhanced detection of WS associated with:Enhanced detection of WS associated with: –Sea breeze –Gust front –Shear line

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 Nowcasting extension of monitoring network

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WMO Symposium Toulouse 2005 Kompasu Hong Kong

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