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Progress Report of JMA Chiashi Muroi, JMA 18-22 Oct. 2010, Tokyo WGNE-26.

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Presentation on theme: "Progress Report of JMA Chiashi Muroi, JMA 18-22 Oct. 2010, Tokyo WGNE-26."— Presentation transcript:

1 Progress Report of JMA Chiashi Muroi, JMA Oct. 2010, Tokyo WGNE-26

2 Contents Outline of our NWP system Recent changes and developments Install plan of next supercomputer and model upgrade plan (since Mar. 2012) Very short range Forecasting of Precipitation ( from Dr. Kato) 2


4 Current NWP models of NPD/JMA Global Spectral Model (GSM) MesoScale Model (MSM) Local Forecast Model (LFM) One-week Ensemble (WEPS) Typhoon Ensemble (TEPS) Objectives Short- and Medium- range forecast Disaster reduction, Short-range forecast Disaster preventing Aviation forecast One-week forecastTyphoon forecast Forecast domainGlobal Japan and its surroundings (3600km x 2880km) Japan center regions (1600km x 1100km) Global Horizontal resolution T L 959( deg) 5km2km T L 319( deg) Vertical levels / Top hPa m hPa Forecast Hours (Initial time) 84 hours (00, 06, 18 UTC) 216 hours (12 UTC) 15 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) 33 hours (03, 09, 15, 21 UTC) 9 hours 216 hours (12 UTC) 51 members 132 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) 11 members Initial Condition Global Analysis (4D-Var) Mesoscale Analysis (4D-Var) Local Analysis (3D-Var) Global Analysis with ensemble perturbations Perturbations are produced by SV- method New!

5 Data assimilation systems of NPD/JMA Global Analysis (GA) Mesoscale Analysis (MA) Local Analysis (LA) Analysis scheme4DVAR3DVAR Analysis time00, 06, 12, 18 UTC 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18, 21 UTC Data cut-off time 2 hours 20 minutes [Early Analysis] 11 hours 35 minutes (00, 12 UTC) 5 hours 35 minutes (06, 18 UTC) [Cycle Analysis] 50 minutes30 minutes Horizontal resolution (inner-model resolution) T L 959 / deg (T159 / 0.75 deg) 5 km (15 km) 5km Vertical levels60 levels up to 0.1 hPa 50 levels up to 21800m 50 levels Assimilation window -3 hours to +3 hours of analysis time -3 hours to analysis time - New!

6 Centre region 1600x1100km 2 Objectives: Disaster prevention / Aviation forecast Resolution: 2km Forecast Domain: 1600kmx1100km Initial time: 3 hourly ( 8/day ) Forecast Period: 9 hour 3-ice microphysics scheme (Cumulus parameterization is not used) Local Forecast Model (LFM) - Trial Run will be started from Nov

7 Resolution 5km, 50 vertical levels Domain 2000kmx 1500km Grid size: 400 x hourly Cut off time: 30 minutes 3DVAR, Rapid Update Cycle Observation Surface, AMeDAS Aircraft Wind Profiler Doppler Velocity Ground based GPS TPW km MSM LA MSM LA 2km LFM 5km MSM MSM Local Analysis Lateral Boundary Rapid Update Cycle

8 Quantitative precipitation forecast, Typhoon Malou LFM(2km): 107mm/3hr OBS(2km): 240mm/3hr MSM(5km): 69mm/3hr GSM(20km): 35mm/3hr

9 9 Rainfall Verification of LFM Winter (DJF) Against GridMean Against GridMax False Alarm Ratio ETSBias Score


11 Development – physics and dynamics- Under development – Cumulus parameterization – Coupling of an ocean mixed-layer model – Increasing the number of vertical levels – Conservative semi-Lagrangian scheme – Non-orographic gravity wave drag – Yin-Yang Grid nonhydrostatic model



14 Blue: GSM L100v2 Red: LBL Lack of cooling?

15 Yin-Yang Grid - Williamson et al. (1992) case 5 - LAT-LON gridSpectral Conformal Cubic grid

16 Development – assimilation, data- Recent changes – Nov. 2009: Assimilation of Metop/GRAS and GRACE has been started – Nov. 2009: Assimilation of AIREP temperature data has been started – Apr. 2010: Revise of Typhoon bugussing – Mar Assimilation of Brazil RARS has been started – Oct.? 2010: Assimilation of COSMIC will be started Under development – Update of Global Analysis inner model of 4DVAR – LETKF – AIRS and IASI – Reevaluate thinning parameters and observation errors – Rapid scan winds of MTSAT

17 Development – EPS - Recent changes – Nov.? 2010: Stochastic Physics Under development – Dec.? 2010: Revise Initial perturbations – Reforecast – LETKF

18 Initial Perturbation Too large spread in NH, in Winter Revised perturbation amplitude Add perturbation in SH 18 Revised Operational Revised

19 Development – regional - Recent changes – Sep. 2010: VarQC, Revise of Typhoon Bogussing – Nov. 2010: New 2-km NWP system : Local Forecast Model – Nov. 2010: Revise of the cumulus convection Under development – Assimilation of radar reflectivity data – Development of a new dynamical core for the non- hydrostatic model – Development of a new dynamical core on CUDA/GPU – Development of a mesoscale ensemble system 19

20 Mixing ratio in Kain- Fritsch scheme 2010/04/08 Kain-Fritsch 20 Mixing ratio Upward mass flux at LCL Constant Interval of vertical levels Radius of convection at LCL Constant – 0.2 (starting plume) – 0.3 (McCarthy, 1974; Simpson 1983) – 0.75 (Malkus, 1960) – 1.0 (Barnes et al., 1996) In finner mesh simulation as 5km-mesh, the constant is not adequate for small scale convection

21 Kain-Fritsch /04/08 28 June UTC 33hour forecast by 5km-MSM Observed Rainfall [mm/3h] Operational Revised

22 Development of New Dynamical Core on GPGPU Joint research between Tokyo- tech and JMA Development of ASUCA on TSUBAME – Original : Fortran90 – Rewrite to C/C++, CUDA – All dynamics and physics are calculated on GPUs. Best Student Award in SC10 22 ASUCA Governing equationsFlux form Fully compressible equations Prognostic variablesρu, ρv, ρw, ρθ, ρ Spatial discretizationFinite volume method Time integrationRunge-Kutta 3rd Treatment of soundSplit explicit AdvectionFlux limiter function by Koren 15 TFLOPS on 520 GPUs


24 System Procurement in 2010 Next System Procurement ~ Jun 2010 – Demand 8.2x faster sustained computational speed – Become operational in Mar 2012 – Benchmark Tests Global: GSM TL959, EPS TL479 & TL319, 4DVAR Meso: JMA-NHM 5 km & 2 km, 4DVAR, 3DVAR, ASUCA – HITACHI won the procurement again!! HITACHI supplies JMA HPC systems for 50 years.

25 Next JMA Supercomputer HITACHI next SR series – Peak Performance : 829.4TFLOPS 2 Subsystems : 2x TFLOPS – Operation + Backup – Memory : 108 TB – High-speed Storage : 348 TB – Data Storage : 3.7 PB + Tape Library – Benchmark result of TL959L100 9 days run with 40 nodes (1280 cores) = 35 minutes ?

26 Mar Feb. 2012Mar – HITACHI SR11000 Successor of HITACHIs current super computer SR16000 Total Peak Performance27.584TFlops829.4TFlops Total number of nodes210 nodes 16CPU/1node 864 nodes 32CPU/1node Memory64GB/node128GB/node Memory Bandwidth GB/s/node612GB/s/node Network Bandwidth8GB/s (one-way)96GB/s (one-way) System configuration80nodes x nodes x 1 432nodes x 2 JMAs super computer system will be upgraded in 2012.

27 A tentative NWP model upgrade plan for the next computer system (2012-) Local Forecast Model (2km, hourly, 9 hour forecast, 3D-Var data assimilation) will be operational. Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (10km, 5 members: pre-operational test) (TBD) Extension of forecast period of One-week ensemble forecast to 18-days Enhancement of vertical resolution (GSM, MSM and One-week and Typhoon ensemble) Enhancement of horizontal resolution (WEPS and TEPS) Increase of ensemble members (TEPS) New!

28 Current and Planned NWP models 1/2 ModelCurrentPlanned GSM Global Spectral Model ResolutionTL959L60TL959L100 Initial time00,06,12,18UTC-> Forecast period216hour for 12utc 84hour for else -> Assimilation4DVAR WEPS One-Week Ensemble Prediction System ResolutionTL319L60TL479L100 Initial time12UTC00,12UTC Member5127 x 2 Forecast period216hour432hour(13member) 216hour(14member) TEPS Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System ResolutionTL319L60TL479L100 Initial time00,06,12,18UTC-> Member1125 Forecast period132hour-> 28

29 Current and Planned NWP models 2/2 ModelCurrentPlanned MSM Meso Scale Model Resolution5km(721x577x50)5km(817x661x75) Initial time00,03,06,09, 12,15,18,21UTC -> Forecast period15hour for 00,06,12,18UTC 33hour for 03,09,15,21UTC 36hour Analysis4DVAR LFM Local Forecast Model Resolution2km(800x550x60)2km(1581x1301x60) Initial time00,03,06,09, 12,15,18,21UTC Hourly Forecast period9hour-> Assimilation3DVAR MEPS Meso Ensemble Prediction System Resolution-10km(409x331x60) (TBD) Initial time-00,06,12,18UTC Member-5 (TBD) Forecast period-39hour 29

30 Future Plan of Medium range and one month ensemble prediction system W1W2W3W4 1-month EPS ( TL319L100 ) 1w EPS ( TL479L100 ) w EPS TL479L100 2w EPS 2014?- 1w EPS TL479L100 Ext-1w EPS 1-month EPS ( TL319L100 ) 2018?- 1-month EPS Separeted system Unified system Ext-1w EPS 2w EPS ( TL319L100 ) Hindcast Reforecast Reforecast/ Hindcast

31 Meso Scale Model (MSM) MSM has been operating since March The objectives are disaster prevention and short range forecast. We plan to expand the forecast domain to reduce the influence of lateral boundary condition on the next super computer system. Local Forecast Model (LFM) The trial run will start in December 2010 The objectives are disaster prevention and aviation forecast. We plan to expand the forecast domain to cover whole Japan. Current Plan Forecast Domain and Topography of MSM Forecast Domain and Topography of LFM Current Plan

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