1. Alachua County Energy conservation strategies commission Presentation to the Women for Wise Growth Sean McLendon, Sustainability Program Manager, Alachua County
April 5, 2009

2. Contents Background on the ECSC Community Challenges
Rising Energy Costs, Climate Change, Peak Oil Production & Decline
Community Opportunities
Create a resource efficient and resilient community

3. Alachua County Commission
“…wants to do its part to reduce or mitigate the effects of Global Climate Change and promote the long-term economic security of its citizens through the implementation of policies that enhance energy efficiency…”
Resolution 07-18, March 27, 2007

4. Membership Twelve energy conservation experts
“Possess demonstrated expertise and/or advanced training in the areas of energy demand side management, LEED or Green Building Code standards, renewable energy technologies, or a related field.”
One representative of the University of Florida
One former elected Gainesville City Commissioner
One former elected Alachua County Commissioner
One alternate position
Dwight Adams, Ed Brown, Erich Christian, Fred Depenbrock, Christopher Fillie, Ken Fonorow, Levin Gaston, Pattie Glenn, Harry Kegelmann, Tom Lane, Ruth Steiner, Eduardo Vargas
University of Florida Representative
Vacancy
Former elected Gainesville City Commissioner
Warren Nielsen
Former elected Alachua County Commissioner
Penny Wheat
Alternate Member
Bill Shepherd

5. Energy Conservation Strategies Commission
“To draft a comprehensive report on energy use, its relationship to climate change and local socio- economic impacts, including actions that can be implemented by the Board of County Commissioners and the community at large.”
ECSC final report will include potential local socioeconomic impacts of increased costs of energy for transportation & energy for buildings.
ECSC Subcommittees
Land Use & Transportation
Locally-applicable Alternative Energy Options
Residential Buildings (inc. Low-Income Housing & Rental Properties)
Waste & Energy Implications

6. County Accomplishments
1991 County Energy Management Program
1998 Resolution Establishing Air Quality Commission
1999 BoCC joins ICLEI Cities for Climate Protection
1999, the County Commission adopted a resolution allowing Alachua County to join the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) campaign. The CCP program is a global campaign to reduce greenhouse gas. Achieved four of five stars.
2000 Hybrids purchased for County Fleet
2001 County Greenhouse Gas Inventory
2001 Sustainable Operations Team
2001 County Employee RTS Bus Passes
2002 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan
2002 Comprehensive Plan specifically the Conservation Element Policy

7. County Accomplishments
2003 Landfill Gas to Energy Project
2003 Alachua County Energy Reduction Policy
2003 New Courthouse built to LEED standards
2006 County Representative to ICLEI North American Congress; Receive ICLEI Award: Recognition of 4 of 5 Stars for CCP Campaign.
2007 Resolution Establishing Energy Conservation Strategies Commission
2008 NACO Green Infrastructure Award
2008 Alachua County becomes full ICLEI member
2008 Water Conservation Project – County Jail Retrofit
It is estimated that the ICON Water Reduction System will conserve between 16 and 17 million gallons of water per year, lowering utility bills by over $109,000 per year.
Based on historical data, the jail is using an average of approximately 36 million gallons of water per year, costing nearly $230,000 for water and over $240,000 per year for natural gas to heat it.

8. Community Challenges
Escalating energy costs for transportation & for buildings
Climate change: global and local
A geologically abrupt change to long term weather patterns caused by emissions of heat-trapping CO2 through the burning of fossil fuels.
Peak Oil production
“Peak Oil” means not 'running out of oil', but 'running out of cheap oil'. For societies leveraged on ever increasing amounts of cheap oil, the consequences may be dire.”
Energy Bulletin:

9. Escalating Energy Costs
“Electricity costs have…spiked because of rising fuel costs. Coal has doubled in price just this past year. Since 1999, the cost of natural gas has also skyrocketed, by more than 400 percent. Coal and natural gas make up approximately 60 percent of Florida's electric generation. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is predicting that summer power prices may increase even further, as high as 50 percent or more.”
Barry Moline
Executive director, Florida Municipal Electric Association
July 2008

10. Ripple effects-escalating energy costs
Cost of oil (gasoline)
Apr 2001: $22.86/barrel Feb 2001 $1.54/gallon gas
Apr 2008: $101.22/barrel Feb 2008 $3.08/gallon gas
Monthly Cost of Food for a Family of 4
Feb 2001: $599
Feb 2008: $771
Average residential retail price of electricity
2001: 8.63 cents/kWh
2007: cents/kWh
100%
29%
Data Available as of 04/22/08 These are national averages!
Cost of Oil: Apr 13, 2001 United States $/barrel of oil Apr 11, 2008 United States $/barrel of oil A barrel of oil has seen a 343% increase in cost since 2001.
Cost of Gasoline: Feb 2001 US City average for retail gasoline all types of gas…includes taxes…cost per gallon from EAI: Feb 2008 US City average for retail gasoline all types of gas…includes taxes…cost per gallon from EAI:
Monthly Food Cost for a Family of 4: See For Feb Row: Family of 4 Couple years and children 2-3 and 4-5 years; Column, Moderate cost plan For Feb Row: Family of 4 Couple years and children 2-3 and 4-5 years; Column, Moderate cost plan
Average residential retail price of electricity: from EAI: See the excel spreadsheet here and look at tab 4 01 Table 4. Average Retail Price for Bundled and Unbundled Consumers by Sector, Census Division, and State, 2001; Residential Column For 2007 see Current and Historical Monthly Retail Sales, Revenues, and Average Retail Price by State and by Sector (Form EIA-826) and look at tab Monthly Totals; Column P Avg Retail Price Residential at the bottom for 2007
23%

11. Bargain Priced Fuel?
New York Times: Savoring Bargains at the American Pump, June 29, 2009

12. Climate Change from the Past
Image from: Statement on Sea Level in the Coming Century; Science Committee Miami-Dade County Climate Change Advisory Task Force
Presented by Dr. Wanless Aprill 22, 2008

13. Climate Change without Action
Image from: Statement on Sea Level in the Coming Century; Science Committee Miami-Dade County Climate Change Advisory Task Force
Presented by Dr. Wanless Aprill 22, 2008

14. Climate Change and FL Population
Image from: Statement on Sea Level in the Coming Century; Science Committee Miami-Dade County Climate Change Advisory Task Force
Presented by Dr. Wanless Aprill 22, 2008

15. Energy & Transportation
US General Accountability Office Report
GAO : released February, 2007
Crude Oil:
Uncertainty about future oil supply makes it important to develop a strategy for addressing a peak and decline in oil production
Source:
The US GAO Report covered the following:
U.S. economy depends heavily on oil, particularly in the transportation sector. World oil production has been running at near capacity to meet demand, pushing prices upward.
How long can world oil supply expand before reaching a maximum level of production -a peak- from which it can only decline? Study examined when oil production could ‘peak’.
Assessed the potential for transportation technologies to mitigate the consequences of a peak in oil production; and
Reviewed studies, convened expert panel, and consulted agency officials. Examined federal agency efforts that could reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or mitigate the consequence.

16. United States Oil Imports
This chart depicts the sources of American oil imports. While the United States gets about 45% of its oil from the Middle East and North Africa, these regions hold over two thirds of the oil reserves worldwide.”
Driving the Future of Energy Security ov/energy/graphs/o ilimport.html
From Energy Information Administration: How dependent are we on foreign oil?
The United States imported about 60% of the oil we consumed during About half of these imports came from the Western Hemisphere. Our dependence on foreign oil is expected to decline in the next two decades.
The United States consumed 20.7 million barrels per day (MMbd) of petroleum products during 2006 making us the world’s largest oil consumer. The United States was third in crude oil production at 5.1 MMbd. In addition to crude oil, significant contributions to U.S. petroleum supplies came from natural gas plant liquids, refinery gain, and alcohol fuels. However, we still needed 13.7 MMbd of imported crude oil and petroleum products to meet U.S. demand. The United States also exported 1.3 MMbd of crude oil and petroleum products during 2006, so our net imports (imports minus exports) equaled 12.4 MMbd.

17. Vulnerability and Oil Supply

18. Vulnerability and Oil Supply

19. Energy Insecurity Domestic Insecurity International Conflict
5 Points "Gas Riot" 1979 Levittown PA Sunday, June 24, 1979, the 2nd Arab oil embargo touched off a protest by Levittowners tired of waiting in gas lines to buy gas & truckers which degenerated into a minor riot by evening.
Images from:

20. US Oil Production and Consumption Overview 1949-2006
US Consumption MB/Day
Net Imports
Million Barrels per Day
US Production
Points of interest on the chart…1970’s oil embargo and the subsequent falling demand and the early 80’s era of stagflation.
Energy Information Administration; Official Energy Statistics from the US Government

21. US General Accountability Office Report - Key Findings
Peak oil is real.
Decline in oil production will occur sometime between February 2007 and 2040.
No one is sure of the exact date, because there is a wide variance in the data and methodology used by various research entities.
Alternative energy sources, particularly for transportation, are not yet available in large quantities.
No consistent government policy that acknowledges reality of peak oil & decline. Without a plan, the United States, perhaps more than any other nation, will be the most seriously harmed economically.
This lack of a strategy makes it difficult to gauge the appropriate level of effort or resources to commit to alternatives to oil and puts the nation unnecessarily at risk. (p.39)
Departments of Energy and the Interior generally agreed with the report and recommendations.

22. US General Accountability Office Selected Findings
“Key alternative [fuels] currently supply the equivalent of only about 1 percent of U.S. consumption of petroleum products.”
“USDOE projects that even under optimistic scenarios, by 2015 these alternative fuels could displace only the equivalent of 4 percent of projected U.S. annual consumption.”
In 2004 the US consumed 140 Billion gallons of gasoline. In that same year we produced only 3.4 billion gallons of ethanol from biofuel crops. That is a drop in the nations gas tank (around 2.4%). But, hold on, ethanol doesn't have the same energy content as gasoline. We only get 70% of the bang for our buck with ethanol so, really we only produced the energy equivalent of 2.4 billion gallons of gasoline. That is a meager 1.7% of the total volume consumed.
So, to kick the petroleum habit (just for cars remember) we have to make up 98.3% of the missing total.
Let's take one of those future technologies. Here's one for cellulosic ethanol. It supposes that it can create 75 billion gallons (only 53 B gallons equivalent of gas) at some point in the future. IF it works, we still need to make up another 62% of just our 2004 consumption habit.
What about current ethanol production technology? Can't we just ramp up what we're doing right now? Ok, one acre of bioenergy crops currently makes around 335 gallons of ethanol (energy equivalent of gallons of gas). How many acres of farm land do we need to grow corn, switch grass and or other bioenergy crops to make the equivalent of 140 Billion gallons of gas?
We would need 597 Million acres. Unfortunately, we might have annex a wee bit of Mexico and Canada to make the nut as we only have 434 million acres of farms and pastures (as of 2002). With that scenario, for the amount of farm land we have (and shrinking) we're almost there, needing only to find 27% more. So, we'll have a 2/3 full gas tank and an empty belly. Remember ALL pasture and crop land would have to be turned over to making fuel for the car.

23. Community Opportunities Create a resource efficient and resilient community
Guiding Principles: (1), Practice conservation (reduce consumption); (2), make efficiencies in building envelopes and mechanical equipment; and (3), invest in renewable power generation.

24. Invest in weatherization & energy efficiency
Community Opportunities Create a resource efficient and resilient community
Invest in weatherization & energy efficiency
Create employment & new local businesses
Develop sustainable mobility infrastructure
Maximize local food production
Maximize renewable energy production
What are the major Community Opportunities? The ECSC recommends creating a resource efficient and resilient community in the following five “opportunity” areas:
Implement a county-wide weatherization & energy efficiency upgrade program.
Create community employment opportunities & grow new local businesses (“relocalization”). Develop local economy based on low-energy consumption.
Develop sustainable mobility infrastructure (focus on public transportation.)
Maximize local food production.
Maximize local, renewable (non-fossil fuel based) energy production (GO SOLAR).

25. Community Opportunities Create a resource efficient and resilient community
New Employment and Business Creation:
Turn discards into raw materials for locally manufactured products.
Economic development of the Alachua County Transfer Station.
Issue a Request for Proposals (RFP) for industries to use discards in manufacturing or related activity.
Alachua County residents pay to transport to a landfill tons of discards that could be used to manufacture locally needed products.
Economic development project: Further develop the Alachua County Transfer Station for use by waste-based industries. Make useful products from recycled materials.
Issue a Request for Proposals (RFP) for industries to use discards in manufacturing or related activity. Match waste/discard to industry in order to locally produce (from otherwise discarded materials) items, produced elsewhere, that now require transportation to Alachua County.

26. Contact the ECSC
Web Site:
Phone: Sean McLendon, Sustainability Program Manager
Address: ECSC, 12 SE 1st St. PO Box 2877, Gainesville, FL

27. Resources Energy Bulletin
Energy Information Administration; Official Energy Statistics from the US Government
CRUDE OIL: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production. United States Government Accountability Office, February 2007

28. Resources
The New York Times Magazine: August 21,2005 The Breaking Point by Peter Maass
National Geographic: The End of Cheap Oil by Tim Appenzeller