Presentation on theme: "1 World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water THORPEX ICSC -10 Agenda Item 2.7 Fred Branski, President of CBS Input."— Presentation transcript:
1 World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water THORPEX ICSC -10 Agenda Item 2.7 Fred Branski, President of CBS Input from Ken Mylne, Peter Chen and Lars-Peter Riishogaard 03 October 2012 WMO
2 THORPEX – CBS Perspective CBS is committed to improving observation and predictive services outcomes and doing so in collaboration with stakeholders. Our joint results are not just leveraged by working together, in todays inter-connected, inter-dependent world, we will not meet societys needs if we dont work as a community.
Items from CBS-15 Presidents Report (e)Cg-XVI said priority should be given to forecasting severe and high-impact weather and related-phenomena over a wide-range of forecast scales, including through the implementation of the SWFDP in all WMO Regions. Significant benefits have resulted from the SWFDP in five areas (Southern Africa, South Pacific, Eastern Africa, Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal) but some countries have experienced difficulties to effectively participate in the SWFDP. The Commission needs to consider how to address country-specific implementation plans within the SWFDP;
Items from CBS-15 Presidents Report (f)There was significant progress on the revision of the Manual on the GDPFS. The GFCS, the increased scope of the Emergency Response Activities Programme, and the Global Integrated Polar Prediction System all have implications for the GDPFS. The Commission is working towards approval of the revised Manual in 2015 and will likely need a transition plan for its implementation; (g)Considerable work was done in the area of forecast verification. We thank the ECMWF as the Lead Centre for Deterministic NWP Verification (http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/) and JMA as the Lead Centre for EPS Verification (http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv/). To support GIPPS, the Commission should recommend inclusion of two new geographical areas (polewards of 60º) in the CBS standard verification procedures;
Items from CBS-15 Presidents Report (h)Significant progress was made in the integration of EPS into core operational forecasting at GDPFS centres. There is now a set of Guidelines on EPS and Forecasting to aid forecasters; (i)Integration of satellite-based products, high-resolution LAM and post-processing systems can be powerful tools for very short to short- range forecasting especially where national radar coverage is sparse. CBS and CAS will need to collaborate on the uptake of these products. We can develop regional/national guidelines on their use using the SWFDP–Eastern Africa as a pilot;
Items from CBS-15 Presidents Report (j)GPC Exeter (UK) reported promising first results regarding the informal exchange of multi annual to decadal predictions. We should encourage this activity by GPC Exeter (UK) and other interested GPCs and need to consider how such multi-annual/decadal predictions might be incorporated into the CSIS of GFCS; (k)Several major ERA events have occurred since CBS-Ext.(10), including volcanic eruptions in Chile, Iceland and Indonesia, and the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident in Japan. We thank the RSMCs involved for their excellent work and response, especially RSMC Tokyo and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) who responded diligently throughout the Fukushima Daiichi NPP event in the face of tragedy and adversity;
Items from CBS-15 Presidents Report (l)We thank ZAMG (Austria) and MeteoSwiss (Switzerland) for providing expert assistance to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the WHO, respectively for the Fukushima Daiichi NPP event; (m)The Commission needs continued close collaboration with the IAEA to further improve meteorological support. There is an initiative to develop meteorological analyses suitable for atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition modeling for the post-accident study undertaken by the UN Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiations (UNSCEAR) on the levels and effects of radiation released from the accident;
Items from CBS-15 Presidents Report (n)RSMCs are looking at improving ERA products including for forecast time-range up to 10 days and geo-referenced information. Some RSMCs provided such products to the IAEA on an experimental basis during the Fukushima event. We need further work in this area including procedures regarding Plume Time of Arrival products; (o)WMO Technical Note 170, Meteorological and Hydrological Aspects of Siting and Operations of Nuclear Power Plants, was thoroughly reviewed. Several WMO Programmes and other Commissions will need to be involved in updating it; (p)Recognizing the expanding role of the ERA Programme, a revision of its description was developed;
9 A CBS Perspective Said to GCOS, true for THORPEX As we move toward operationalizing climate services and towards seamless predictive and decision support capabilities, interdependencies between traditionally separate communities are increasing. Operating with separate, disjointed, non-interoperable, non-integrated and non-shared data and systems will ensure each community will reach a lower potential. And, it will ensure that Members ROI will be lower than it should be.
10 A CBS Perspective Said to GCOS, true for THORPEX Yes, there are differences in the detailed requirements. Yes, there are differences in end products needed. Yes, there are differences in the services we are being asked to provide. However, in each of these areas there is also significant overlap. Today we are being asked to provide a continuum of capabilities and predictive services where the borders are fuzzy and the outputs are becoming increasingly seamless.
11 A CBS Perspective Said to GCOS, true for THORPEX So, its important that we continue to work more and more collectively, leveraging each others capabilities, talents and resources. New initiatives seem to be coming out of the woodwork. There are more and more partners coming forward wanting to work together (in most cases). At the minimum they are interested in our data and products. GCOS THORPEX is a good example of partners working together and this collective approach needs to be strengthened both within the climate enterprise and in collaboration with the weather, water and related earth system enterprises. -----------
12 A CBS Perspective Said to GCOS, true for THORPEX Perhaps one day we wont think of these as separate enterprises. As we discuss know that CBS is committed to a collaborative approach to the way forward As we think about THORPEX in the near term and its follow on, lets think about it as it fits into a continuum of needs and delivered predictive capabilities. Traditional and new, from but not limited to the GFCS, S-to-S Future Earth, PROVIA, GIPPS, SWFDP and the follow on to legacy THORPEX activities.
13 THORPEX – CBS Perspective OPAG - DPFS Significant collaboration between CBS OPAG-DPFS and WWRP THORPEX, should be strengthened This includes: –Development and operational use of EPS, coordination with WG GIFS-TIGGE (agenda item 2.4.4) –SWFDP is a possible vehicle for trialing and implementing promising outputs from GIFS-TIGGE such as tropical cyclone track products and for severe weather parameters –Joint sessions should continue between the CBS Steering Group on SWFDP with WG GIFS-TIGGE (more on SEFDP under item 2.8)
14 THORPEX – CBS Perspective OPAG - DPFS R&D is needed for understanding, and development of forecasting tools for deep convection in the Tropics (e.g. Lake Victoria, Eastern Africa) DPFS will also have a role in developments in the areas of Polar Prediction and Sub-seasonal Prediction Ken Mylne of the UK Met Office is new Chair of OPAG- DPFS. Yuki Honda of Japan continues as Co-chair. The strong link with the GIFS-TIGGE WG is important and is helped by one of the co-Chairs, Richard Swinbank, being a close colleague of Kens at the Met Office.
15 THORPEX – CBS Perspective OPAG - DPFS Two key strands of TIGGE research are multi-model ensemble products and using the TIGGE archive to calibrate ensemble probabilities for high-impact events. The Met Office is engaged in Developing real-time multi- model ensemble products to be used and trialed in SWFDP. This should reduce the number of different products forecasters need to look at to get the best quality information. Initially working on TC tracks probabilities for strong winds and heavy rain should follow. Some of this work is funded by EU project GEO-WOW.
16 THORPEX – CBS Perspective OPAG - DPFS A group at JMA have developed some calibrated probability products from TIGGE data. These have been demonstrated to SWFDP centres and we have received some useful feedback, But they are currently only available 48hours late due to the TIGGE research data restrictions. We are currently working with JMA and others to try and find a way to make similar products available in real-time for SWFDP centres.
17 THORPEX – CBS Perspective OPAG - DPFS An important area for further research which will really benefit SWFDP and severe weather forecasting for all WMO Members is how to get the best representations of severe weather out of global models and ensembles. Tracking features such as TCs is well-developed, but we still have big issues over TC intensity. There is ongoing work on new diagnostics for severe convection. There is some indication they can work well for major convective outbreaks over North America, but as yet we have no idea how effective they might be for tropical convection, or whether alternative methods can be developed.
18 THORPEX – CBS Perspective OPAG - DPFS A mild concern is while we engage SWFDP centres in research activities, we dont overload them and distract from the operational priorities. Key to SWFDP success is the cascade of sophisticated information in simple formats through low-bandwidth communications to make it accessible to all users. THORPEX activities could follow this model, offer a select product set aimed at severe weather prediction to avoid overload of technology systems or forecasters.
19 THORPEX – CBS Perspective OPAG - DPFS Were working to strategically strengthen the SWFDP by improving support through a project office, and providing sustainable funded resource for annual training activities. This will help engage better with THORPEX research. But there are tight resource constraints on time and effort, operational work must take priority.
20 THORPEX – CBS Perspective OPAG - DPFS A key strategy going forward is how to fully integrate deterministic and ensemble NWP at different resolutions to build a complete picture of the forecast distribution, rather than having an "Operational Deterministic Forecast" and supplementary uncertainty information from the ensembles. Where available this should include very high-resolution models in the short range.
21 THORPEX – CBS Perspective OPAG - DPFS An important future direction for research, in THORPEX or its follow-on, should be in how to combine different data sources at different resolutions and skills, to produce this complete picture. The challenge for CBS then, including PWS as well as DPFS, is how forecasters can make best use of this complete picture in providing services. An integral part of this is the communication of probabilistic information and its use for effective decision-making.
22 THORPEX – CBS Perspective OPAG - DPFS Something perhaps even more challenging going forward is how to similarly integrate multi-model and uncertainty information in impact prediction. An obvious example in which we are involved in is the ERA activities. The Met Office and other centers are already experimenting with ensemble dispersion prediction. This is an area for research, and might fit well in a THORPEX follow-on context. An important area for collaboration between THORPEX research and operations is verification. I think we do have very strong links, with several common members between research working groups and CBS Expert Teams.
23 THORPEX – CBS Perspective OPAG – IOS & WIGOS Another important linkage is between the CBS OPAG- IOS (ET-EGOS, WIGOS, RRR) and DAOS This is especially so for the WMO Workshops on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP And also for the ongoing WIGOS implementation not only for optimizing the observations network but also with regard to the role of data assimilation in the provision of integrated observing products.
WMO Workshops on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP Five Workshops held so far: 1 st - Geneva, 1997 2 nd – Toulouse, 2000 3 rd – Alpbach, 2004 4 th – Geneva, 2008 - Workshop Report available on http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/OSY/Reports/NWP-Geneva2008_index.html 5 th – Sedona (AZ, USA), May 22-25 2012 Workshops aim to bring together major NWP centers and representatives from the research community to discuss the contribution to forecast skill of various elements of the global observing system; guidance to participants provided well in advance of Workshop itself. September 12, 2012 24 TECO Focus Session IOS, CBS-XV, Jakarta
Fifth WMO NWP Impact Workshop, Sedona, May 22-25 At CBS Ext (10) in Namibia: US extended an invitation to host the 5th WMO Impact Workshop in 2012 –Erik Andersson (ECMWF), R-SEIS, SOC –Lars Peter Riishojgaard (JCSDA), CBS OPAG-IOS Chair, LOC
Fifth WMO NWP Impact Workshop, Sedona Scientific Organizing Committee Erik Andersson, ECMWF, (Chair), (R-SEIS) Carla Cardinali, ECMWF (THORPEX) John Eyre, Met Office UK (CBS/ET-EGOS) Ron Gelaro, NASA/GSFC (THORPEX) Miroslav Ondras, WMO Secretariat Florence Rabier, Meteo-France (THORPEX) Lars Peter Riishojgaard, JCSDA (CBS/OPAG-IOS) Yoshiaki Sato, JMA (R-SEIS) Workshop funding provided by WMO (OBS and THORPEX), NASA and NOAA (GOES-R Program Office)
Fifth WMO NWP Impact Workshop, Sedona in brief The largest impact Workshop so far: –3½ days –59 participants from 13 countries –40 presentations distributed in three sessions Ample discussion time during and after the sessions Very broad attendance from NWP community Space agencies and other NWP and observing system managers also represented –They are keenly aware of the power of NWP diagnostics as aids for decision making September 12, 2012TECO Focus Session IOS, CBS- XV, Jakarta 27
Some Preliminary Conclusions from the Fifth WMO Impact Workshop Modern, 4-dimensional data assimilation methods (4D-VAR, ENKF) have led to greatly improved use of data, especially of –Asynoptic data (e.g. aircraft, satellite observations) –Observations with complex relationships between measured and model variables (satellite radiances, GPSRO, radar,…) Broad consensus about highest-ranking contributors to forecast skill, but not necessarily about their ranking order: –AMSU-A (microwave temperature sounder) –AIRS/IASI (hyper-spectral infrared sounders) –Radiosondes –Aircraft observations –Atmospheric motion vectors (feature tracking satellite winds) September 12, 2012TECO Focus Session IOS, CBS-XV, Jakarta 28
Some Preliminary Conclusions from the Fifth WMO Impact Workshop Radio occultation data (GPSRO) also have substantial impact but data volumes are currently declining as COSMIC is approaching the end of its lifetime There is now no single, dominating satellite sensor; several sensors contribute to forecast skill in roughly equal measure The relative impacts of specific observation types depends on which other observations are used and how –If certain data are withheld, other datatypes can in some contexts compensate for the lost skill However, the continued value of in situ data, and in particular of wind measurements, was clearly demonstrated Regional data assimilation systems making progress in the use of radar and satellite observations –Radiance assimilation still problematic September 12, 2012TECO Focus Session IOS, CBS-XV, Jakarta 29
Fifth WMO NWP Impact Workshop Fifth WMO Impact Workshop generated interest in (and drew representation from) all major NWP centers around the world, and from managers of observing systems The Workshop reaffirmed the critical role played by impact studies in the RRR –Immensely powerful tools for impact studies and network design! –Equally valuable for observing system developers, WMO members, and the NWP community itself –CBS Recommended to arrange a Sixth Workshop in 2016 September 12, 2012TECO Focus Session IOS, CBS-XV, Jakarta 30
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