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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010 ACCESS.

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Presentation on theme: "The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010 ACCESS."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS Rainfall Verification Beth Ebert previously provided detailed stats Subsequently elevated to greatness. Following are NMOC stats provided by Jim Fraser.

2 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS Rainfall Verification Stats: Warm Season: Nov to Mar Cool Season: Apr to Aug General comments: ACCESS systems generally outperform their LAPS/GASP counterparts, but tend to under-forecast average rain intensity

3 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-G (Warm) ObservedGASPACCESS-G hr24-48 hr48-72 hr00-24 hr24-48 hr48-72 hr Rain Area (km 2 *10 3 ) Avg Intensity (mm/d) Rain Volume (km 3 ) Max Intensity (mm/d) Mean Abs Error (mm/d) RMS Error (mm/d) Correlation Coefficient Bias Score Probability of Detection False Alarm Ratio Critical Success Index Hanssen & Kuipers Score Equitable Threat Score

4 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-R (Warm) ObservedLAPS_PT375ACCESS-R hr24-48 hr48-72 hr00-24 hr24-48 hr48-72 hr Rain Area (km 2 *10 3 ) Avg Intensity (mm/d) Rain Volume (km 3 ) Max Intensity (mm/d) Mean Abs Error (mm/d) RMS Error (mm/d) Correlation Coefficient Bias Score Probability of Detection False Alarm Ratio Critical Success Index Hanssen & Kuipers Score Equitable Threat Score

5 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-A Average intensity still under-forecast Maximum intensity over-done, particularly in warm season

6 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-A (warm) Observed MESO_LAPS_PT125MALAPS_PT100ACCESS-A 00-24hr12-36hr24-48hr00-24hr12-36hr24-48hr00-24hr12-36hr24-48hr Rain Area (km 2 *10 3 ) Avg Intensity (mm/d) Rain Volume (km 3 ) Max Intensity (mm/d) Mean Abs Error (mm/d) RMS Error (mm/d) Correlation Coefficient Bias Score Probability of Detection False Alarm Ratio Critical Success Index Hanssen & Kuipers Score Equitable Threat Score

7 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-A (cold) Observed MESO_LAPS_PT125MALAPS_PT100ACCESS-A 00-24hr12-36hr24-48hr00-24hr12-36hr24-48hr00-24hr12-36hr24-48hr Rain Area (km 2 *10 3 ) Avg Intensity (mm/d) Rain Volume (km 3 ) Max Intensity (mm/d) Mean Abs Error (mm/d) RMS Error (mm/d) Correlation Coefficient Bias Score Probability of Detection False Alarm Ratio Critical Success Index Hanssen & Kuipers Score Equitable Threat Score

8 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS


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