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Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - 16. September 2010 Speaker: Dr. Hubert Röder Wood availability in.

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Presentation on theme: "Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - 16. September 2010 Speaker: Dr. Hubert Röder Wood availability in."— Presentation transcript:

1 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - 16. September 2010 Speaker: Dr. Hubert Röder Wood availability in Germany and Europe Status and Trends

2 2 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Content Pöyry in brief Current availability of wood Conclusions Measures to increase wood availability Recommendations

3 1. Pöyry in brief

4 4 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Global experts in consulting and engineering Pöyry is a global consulting and engineering company dedicated to balanced sustainability 7000 experts in about 50 countries Project experience in more than 100 countries 17 000 projects annually Net sales in 2009 EUR 674 million Listed on the NASDAQ OMX Helsinki since 1997

5 5 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 The global thought leader in engineering balanced sustainability for a complex world Our vision

6 6 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Wide range of deep expertise Urban planning Real estate development Transport planning Rail infrastructure Road infrastructure Construction management Building design Forest Industry Pulp and paper Chemicals Biofuels Biorefining Water supply and sanitation Water resources management Geosciences Environmental services Environmental consulting Renewable energy Hydropower Thermal power Oil and gas Nuclear energy Transmission & distribution

7 2. Wood availability

8 8 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Global availability of wood Wood availability is more or less stable in Central Europe. Regions with increasing availability of wood (e.g. for Exports to Europe) are Russia, US South, South America and Africa. Short term availability is also high in Canada due to bark beetle desease. Increasing wood availability Stable/decreasing wood availability Wood deficit areas Quelle: Pöyry

9 9 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Current European Wood Flows Already today a significant part of the wood resource is used in energy production. EU-27 Wood Resource ~485 million m 3 Fuel Wood Sawn WoodWood panels Fibre / Pulp Power Heat By-Products and Residues Paper, Board 27%73% 41% I N P U T O U T P U T Recovered Imports 59%

10 10 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Biomass targets in Europe 2010 - 2020 All European member states are planning increased utilisation of biomass* for renewable energy. * Source: National Renewable Energy Action Plans, 2010, ECN summary

11 11 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Biomass targets in Europe 2010 - 2020 UK, Italy and Ireland are the countries with the most ambitious plans for the utilization of biomass for energy. * Source: National Renewable Energy Action Plans, 2010

12 12 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Case Example UK: Bioenergy Players 2006200720082009201020112012 2015201320142016 Prenergy (Port Talbot) 350MW MGT Power (Teesside) 300MW E.ON (Lockerbie) 44MW MGT Power (Tyneside) 300MW E.ON (Bristol) 150MW Sembcorp (Wilton) 30MW Drax (Selby Co-firing) 500MW Drax (Selby) 300MW Drax (Immingham) 300MW Drax (Hull) 300MW Helius (Bristol) 100MW Anglesey Aluminium (Holyhead) 300MW RWE (Stallingborough) 65MW Express Power (Tilbury) 60MW UPM (Shotton) 20MW UPM (Caledonian) 26MW Planned facilitiesOperational facilities If most of the large-scale projects planned in the UK are successfully completed, an additional 3GW of biomass-based energy capacity will be created by 2016. This is likely to create a demand for in excess of 25 million gmt of biomass. Planned facilities (S36/local consent granted) Forth Energy (Dundee) 100MW Forth Energy (Rosyth) 100MW Forth Energy (Grangemouth) 100MW Forth Energy (Leith) 100MW Ayrshire Power (Hunterston) 240MW Welsh Power (Newport) 49MW

13 13 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Case Example UK: Supply Surplus Development Waste wood and harvesting residues are the only biomass assortments in the UK, which still offer a good supply surplus. Bioenergy players will mainly target these assortments (aditional to oversea imports) and most of the current surplus will be consumed by 2022. Source: Pöyry

14 14 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Biomass balance in Europe 2020 The estimated woody biomass supply gap in Europe will be > 200 Mio. m³/a in 2020*. Still important NREAPs are missing for final calculation (e.g. PL, CZ, …) * Source: EU Renewable Energy Roadmap, Pöyry & McKinsey analysis, CEPI SupplyPotential increase (incl. imports) Total assumed supply GapEstimated Demand EnergyIndustry Traditional Demand Pulp, Panels, Solid Wood.. Additional Supply Potential Estimated Demand 2020 370-400 150-160520-560 Millionm 3 Energy Demand Current Forest Biomass Supply Estimated Supply 2020 Gap 340-420 ~400 740-820 > 200 ???

15 15 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Case Example Germany: Renewable Energy investments Focus of renewable Energy investments until 2010 have been in onshore wind power. Planned investments until 2020 concentrate on offshore wind power. Pending projects have a focus in Biomass (mainly wood). 1)BAU (Business as Usual) 2010: Renewables-Kapazität bis 2010, abgedeckt über bestehende/weiterentwickelte Fördermechanismen 2)BAU (Business as Usual) 2020: Zusätzliche Renewables-Kapazität bis 2020, abgedeckt über bestehende/weiterentwickelte Fördermechanismen 3)Delta zur Zielerreichung 2020: Renewables-Kapazität bis 2020 unter der Annahme eines Handelsmarktes in der EU 27 BAU 2010 1) BAU 2010-2020 2) Delta zur Zielerreichung 3) Others Small Hydro Large Hydro Biogas Biowaste Biomass Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Renewables Kapazitäten (GW) Quelle: Pöyry Delta to acheive targets

16 16 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Wood availability in Germany Verbleibendes Potenzial (m³/ha)* CH A CZ PL DK NL B F *Potenzial in m³/ha Gesamtfläche Wald + Nichtwald Rohstoffbedarfe Nd-IL [Tsd. m³] Grau: Nachbarländer Mio. m³ WEHAM BasisszenarioSzenario F Potenzial Nadelindustrieholz5,96,7./. Hausbrand1,0./. Biomasseheizkraftwerke0,2./. Papier- und Zellstoffwerke5,3./. Holzwerkstoffindustrie3,6 Defizit Potenzial-4,2-3,4 Softwood Potentials 2008-2012 All Softwood potentials are currently utilized. Additional increase of Softwood availabilty are limited using current management regimes. Quelle: Pöyry

17 17 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Wood availability in Germany Hardwood Potentials 2008-2012 There are regional potentials to increase the availability of Hardwood../. Holzwerkstoffindustrie 3,2 Mio. m³ Rest Potenzial 6,0 Mio. m³ Potenzial Laubindustrieholz13,3 Mio. m³./. Hausbrand 2,3 Mio. m³ 0,4 Mio. m³./. Biomasseheizkraftwerke./. Papier-/Zellstoffindustrie 1,4 Mio. m³ CH A CZ PL DK NL B F Rohstoffbedarfe an Lb-IL [Tsd. m³] Grau: Standorte in Nachbarländern Verbleibendes Potenzial (m³/ha)* *Potenzial in m³/ha Gesamtfläche Wald + Nichtwald Quelle: Pöyry

18 18 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Verbleibendes Waldrestholz-Potenzial (m³/ha)** CH A CZ PL DK NL B F Anlagen auf Basis von Gebrauchtholz Biomasseheiz(kraft)werke > 50 Tsd. t Jahresbedarf Waldrestholzbedarfe in Tsd. m³ Rest Potenzial 25,7 Mio. m³/a Potenzial Waldrestholz 30,4 Mio. m³/a./. Hausbrand 1,7 Mio. m³/a 0,6 Mio. m³/a./. BMHKW < 50 Tsd. t/a* 2,4 Mio. m³/a./. BMHKW > 50 Tsd. t/a 50 - 99 Tsd. t 100 Tsd. t *jährlicher Brennstoffbedarf **Potenzial in m³/ha Gesamtfläche Wald + Nichtwald Wood availability in Germany Forest residues Potentials 2008-2012 Forest residues have the highest potential for increased utilization. Establishment of tailored supply chains has already started with different intensity depending on regions and ownership structures. Quelle: Pöyry

19 19 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Wood availability in Germany Quelle: Verändert nach Thrän, D., et al. Deutsches Biomasse ForschungsZentrum, S.252 (2009) Biomassekonkurrenzen www.dbfz.de Estimations result in a wood deficit of approx. 32 Mio. m³ in 2020. Without taking 2nd generation biofuels into account, the deficit would be approx. 20 Mio. m³.

20 20 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Wood availability in Germany Key driver for the allocation of woody biomass will be the paying capabilities of the industries (pulp/paper/panels vs. energy). Increasing costs for energy will strengthen the paying capability for energetic use and parallel decrease the paying capability for industrial use. Pöyry Modell der Zahlungsfähigkeit für Industrie-/Energieholz [Illustratives Modell]

21 21 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Wood price development Szenario 1: Development of wood supply and price 2010 - 2020: Increased demand of woody biomass for energy and industry results in a higher supply. Investments are realized and price increases. Price Cumulative Volume 2010 2020

22 22 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Wood price development Szenario 2: Development of wood supply and price 2010 - 2020: Increased demand of woody biomass for energy and industry does not result in substantial higher supply. Investments are not realized and price stagnates. 2010/ 2020 Price Cumulative Volume

23 23 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Summary of wood availability Global economic crisis has reduced the demand of industrial wood only for a short term. Energy wood demand has increased steadily. Increased demand for industrial and energy wood will lead to a supply gap in Germany and Europe Possibilities for the increase of wood availability: Increased utilization of forest residues (added value for forest owners and forest service companies) Improved harvesting regimes to tackle climate change Establishment of energy crops in agriculture Avoid further restrictions in forest utilization Summary

24 Examples for increased wood availability

25 25 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Examples to increase wood availability Quelle: Mantau: Holz als Energieträger, DFWR-Workshop Bioenergie – Holz als Energieträger, 2006; Annahmen: Pöyry Mobilisation of harvesting reserves would result in substantial increase of wood availability. Potentials [Mio. m³] Mobilisation rate (Estimation) Utilization of increment Roundwood > 7 cm 66% 7,8 100% 11,8 Forest residues < 7 cm 50% 9,8 100% 19,6 Needles and leaves 10% 0,6 100% 6,0 Sum 18,2 Mio. m³37,4 Mio. m³ Harvesting potentials in Germany

26 26 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Examples to increase wood availability Felling Forwarding Storage Chipping & Loading Transport Storage Integration of forest residue harvesting in the industrial wood supply chain. Quelle: VTT

27 27 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Examples to increase wood availability Quelle: Prof. Jürgen Bauhus, Universität Freiburg, Vortrag Winterkolloquium Freiburg 2010 Mapping of sensible forest stand should avoid negative impacts on nutrients availability in the forest stands.

28 28 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Examples to increase wood availability Intensivied thinnings result in higher potentials Quelle: Prof. Jürgen Bauhus, Universität Freiburg, Vortrag Winterkolloquium Freiburg 2010

29 29 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Examples to increase wood availability Typical harvesting regimes concentrate on traditional concepts Quelle: Prof. Jürgen Bauhus, Universität Freiburg, Vortrag Winterkolloquium Freiburg 2010

30 30 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Examples to increase wood availability Additional harvesting of indifferent trees. Quelle: Prof. Jürgen Bauhus, Universität Freiburg, Vortrag Winterkolloquium Freiburg 2010

31 31 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Examples to increase wood availability Result of intensivied thinnings (~+30 % volume). Quelle: Verändert nach Prof. Jürgen Bauhus, Universität Freiburg, Vortrag Winterkolloquium Freiburg 2010 Ergebnis der Maßnahme

32 32 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Examples to increase wood availability Spruce stands can be a attractive capital allocation. Additionally risks of climatic change are tackeled and mixed standes can be funded. Indicative calculation of IRR of forest investments (example spruce stands) Quelle: Beinhofer u. Knoke. AFZ/Der Wald 2/2007. Avg. Age Capital employed (/ha) 1%2%3%4%5% 505.35328923618212875 8011.01726615646- 64-174 10013.33222794- 40- 173- 306 14015.825119- 39- 197- 356- 514 Internal rate of return (/ha*a) after interests

33 33 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Conclusion Tackling climate change and added value from forests by utililzation of an extended resource base in Europe!

34 34 Scientific Seminar Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use - TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Dr. Hubert Röder Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting Tel: +49 8161 4806 85 Email: hubert.roeder@poyry.com


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