1. 1 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 The Challenges of Promoting Safety Dr. Todd Curtis The AirSafe.com Foundation NASA - Ellington Field 24 March 2004 Slides and other materials at airsafe.com/nasatalk.htm

2. 2 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 Agenda Some General Realities about Safety Marketing and Selling Safety How to Ask an Aviation Safety Question Marketing and Selling Safety The Sociology of Safety The Key Role of the Human Element Safety and Innovation: The Challenges Remain Are You Better Than Average? TM

3. 3 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 Some General Realities about Safety Safety Touches on Many Areas What is Important is Not Always Obvious Perception of Risk is Often the Key Improvement Takes More Than Technology No One Can Do It Alone The Individual is Still Important Never Underestimate the Human Element

4. 4 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 Key Concepts Safety: A Constantly Changing Concept Risk: Probability and Consequences The Power of Storytelling The Power of Public Perception The Interactions of People and Technology Safety Failures are System Failures

5. 5 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 Safety is More Than Numbers Definitions are Very Flexible The Level of Concern Can Vary Widely Hard to Agree on an Acceptable Level Common Measurements May Not Exist Issues can be Subjective or Objective How to Frame the Debate is an Issue Cost per Life and Cost per Life Saved Accomplishing the Mission and Protecting Lives

6. 6 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 The Marketing and Selling of Safety Why is it So Difficult? Safety Comes at a Continuing Cost Costs are Measurable, Benefits are Not Costs and Benefits Happen to Different Groups Desire to Maximize the “Bottom Line” Building Codes and Bird Hazard Reduction

7. 7 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 How to Ask an Aviation Safety Question Understanding the Question is the Foundation Specifying the Question is Necessary Need to Know and Understand the Audience Managing the Process is a Key to Success Presenting the Answer is Part of the Process Example: Airliner Deaths of the U.S. Congress

8. 8 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 How to Ask an Aviation Safety Question Key Phases of the Process Goals and Objectives Identifying and Evaluating Data Identifying Appropriate Analysis Methods Resource Management Task Management Presentation Design Administration

9. 9 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 Marketing and Selling Safety The Birth of BirdStrike.org Bird Strike Community Spread Around the World Communications Limited Elmendorf AWACS Accident Key Turning Point Recognized Need for Controlling the Debate Pitched the Idea to the Key Stakeholders Prototype Site within AirSafe.com

10. 10 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 Marketing Safety AirSafe.com Design and Development Criteria Markets: Journalists, Passengers, Aviation professionals Target Audience Was Worldwide Initial Focus on Passenger Deaths in Jet Transports Limit Information to Publicly Accessible Sources Overall Design Optimized for Fast Loading “Three Click Rule” for Most Information

11. 11 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 Marketing Safety Key Realities of AirSafe.com Lack of Resources Led to Better Planning Technology Takes a Back Seat to Content Balance Between Perceived and Actual Needs Internet Technology Plays a Central Role

12. 12 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 The Sociology of Safety Aviation Safety Is a Community Individuals Have Limited Power Change is Usually Evolutionary Dramatic Events Can Drive Technology Dramatic Events Can Change the Debate Safety Policy Exists in a Social Context Storytelling is a Key Agent of Change The Unwritten Code of Silence

13. 13 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 The Key Role of the Human Element Human Actions, Decisions, and Judgment in All Phases of the Safety Process Role of Interaction of People and Technology is Getting More Complex Improving the Human Element is Not Easy Examples: Cockpit Resource Management, Operational Risk Assessment

14. 14 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 The Key Role of the Human Element Example: Why are Some Accidents More Well Known? Public Policy Follows Public Interest Several Key Factors in Public Interest “Body Bags with American Flags” The New York Connection Public Interest Tied to High-Interest Events

15. 15 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 The Key Role of the Human Element Example: AirSafe.com Traffic After Key Events

16. 16 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 The Key Role of the Human Element Example: AirSafe.com Traffic After Key Events Alaska AirlinesConcorde American 5879/11

17. 17 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 The Key Role of the Human Element Example: Operational Risk Assessment Basics are Widely Taught Can be Used at all Levels Issues can be of any Scale Works Best if All Relevant Parts of the Organization are Involved Assessment and Management Methods Allow for Effective Management Used Along With Other Methods

18. 18 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 The Key Role of the Human Element Example: Cockpit Resource Management Recognition Came About Through Tragedy Necessary to Bring Change to the Entire Community Getting Consensus was a Long-Term Project Necessary to change basic traditions Widely Recognized but Not Universally Practiced

19. 19 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 Safety and Innovation The Challenges Remain Higher Levels of Automation Unmanned and Autonomous Aircraft Unpredictable Requirements Evolution Sudden Appearance of New Threats Flight in Relatively Unknown Regimes Changing of Long-Held Assumptions

20. 20 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 Safety and Innovation What September 11 Revealed A Failure of Imagination Unwillingness to Debate Technical Issues The Separation of Safety and Security Catalyst for Rapid Change Relative Silence of the Technical Experts Extreme Social and Political Pressures

21. 21 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 Accident Investigation A Once in a Lifetime Experience Most Will Never Have Direct Experience On Site Investigation Has Many Players Most Personnel are not Safety Professionals Each Investigation has Unique Challenges Civil and Military Arenas Have Key Differences Process Can be Psychologically Challenging

22. 22 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 Accident Investigation Example: AWACS at Elmendorf Most Will Never Have Direct Experience On Site Investigation Has Many Players Most Personnel are not Safety Professionals Each Investigation has Unique Challenges Civil and Military Arenas Have Key Differences Examples of Psychological Challenges

23. Are You Better Than Average? The Emotional Side of Probability A game that illustrates the relationship between logic, emotion, and probability It also illustrates the likelihood of an unwanted event over a population of rare events Field tested from kindergarteners to PhDs One way to put risk into an easy to understand example Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 23

24. Are You Better Than Average? The Rules of the Game There is one chance in three of a double or a seven On average, it takes three rolls for a double or a seven Get a double or seven on the first roll, you are better than average, if not, roll again Get a double or seven on the second roll, you are still better than average, if not you are no better than average If your emotions are bruised, keep playing the game until you “win” 24 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

25. Are You Better Than Average? Possible Outcomes Win on first roll, P(1/3) Win on second roll, P(2/9) Lose on second roll, P(4/9) No Double, no Seven Double or Seven 25 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

26. Are You Better Than Average? Expected Distribution of Results 26 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

27. Are You Better Than Average? Relevance to Flight Operational scenarios may look like an outcome to a game WWII example – surviving 25 missions A 1% likelihood of a shootdown implies about a 78% chance of making 25 missions (1 st or 3 rd outcome) A 2.4% likelihood of a shootdown implies about a 55% 25 chance of making 25 missions (1 st or 2 nd outcome) Acceptable losses for the fleet depends on the nature of the mission and the acceptance of the risk 27 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

28. B-17: Make it Home Alive The Rules of the Game Same basic rules as “Are You Better Than Average?” Two versions: 1% Risk or 2.4% Risk For 1% risk, 1 st or 3 rd outcome is a “win” For 2.4% risk, 1 st or 2 nd outcome is a “win” Unlike “Are You Better Than Average?,” each player only has one opportunity On a B-17 crew, there is no second opportunity 28 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

29. B-17: Make it Home Alive Possible Outcomes for the 1% Game Finish 25 missions, P(1/3) Do not finish 25 missions, P(2/9) Finish 25 missions, P(4/9) Double or Seven No Double, no Seven 29 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

30. B-17: Make it Home Alive Possible Outcomes for the 2.4% Game Finish 25 missions, P(1/3) Finish 25 missions, P(2/9) Do Not Finish 25 missions, P(4/9) Double or Seven No Double, no Seven 30 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004