1. A generic risk assessment approach for multiple stressors & exposures Geoff Frampton, Guy Poppy, Jamie Sutherland Funded by Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Group School of Biological Sciences University of Southampton, UK

2. Background (1) Limitations of the Farm-Scale Evaluations (FSE) of genetically-modified herbicide-tolerant crops: Intensive monitoring, hence expensive (£5.5 million) Monitoring unfocused, hence inefficient use of resources Can we optimize targeting of the monitoring resources to where they are needed ?

3. Background (2) Currently, agricultural risks are assessed routinely only for GM crops and pesticides Other more environmentally damaging agricultural practices do not require risk assessments Proposal: all new (or changed) agricultural practices should be assessed for environmental risk (UK Advisory Committee on Releases to the Environment (ACRE), 2006) Discrepancy in current agricultural risk assessment:

4. How to assess risks of new or changed agricultural practices ?

5. ReceptorResponse Pathway effect(exposure) Source Source – pathway – receptor principle

6. ReceptorResponse Pathway effect Source – pathway – receptor principle (exposure) Source REGIONAL risk assessment – e.g. invasive species in marine coastal area (Landis 2003) Risk Analysis 24 (4) 2003 invasion Imported invasive species effects 9 predicted impacts 7 receiving habitats 7 mechanistic models 23 mechanistic models effectinvasion

7. ReceptorResponse Pathway effect Source – pathway – receptor principle (exposure) Source Co-occurrence SPATIALLY EXPLICIT risk assessment – e.g. military landscape (Andersen et al. 2004) Risk Analysis 24 (5) 2004 Spatially explicit hazards Indicator species effects Responses

8. ReceptorResponse Pathway effect Source – pathway – receptor principle (exposure) Source Co-occurrence Effects depend upon resilience Responses TRAIT BASED risk assessment – e.g. arable farmland (Butler et al. 2007) Science 315 (5810) 2007 Required ecological resources Affected ecological resources

9. Epigeic inverts Soil inverts Seeds Plant material Vertebrates Soil inverts Seeds Plant material Vertebrates Hedgerow Crop Margin Hedgerow Crop Margin Hedgerow Crop NEST SITES DIET Summer Winter HABITAT Summer Winter Ecological resources of farmland bird species (=receptor) Margin Epigeic inverts Ecological resources affected by agricultural activity (=source) NEST SITES Summer Winter DIET Summer Winter HABITAT Trait-based risk assessment (hypothetical example)

10. Epigeic inverts Soil inverts Seeds Plant material Vertebrates Soil inverts Seeds Plant material Vertebrates Hedgerow Crop Margin Hedgerow Crop Margin Hedgerow Crop NEST SITES DIET Summer Winter HABITAT Summer Winter Margin Epigeic inverts NEST SITES Summer Winter DIET Summer Winter HABITAT 1 / 52 / 5 Trait-based risk assessment (hypothetical example) Score = 1.6 1 / 32 / 3 Ecological resources of farmland bird species (=receptor) Ecological resources affected by agricultural activity (=source)

11. Mammals (44 spp)Bumblebees (14 spp) Declining Possibly declining Stable / increasing Risk score Declining Possibly declining Stable / increasing Validation of risk scores for past agricultural changes (1970-2000) (spring to autumn sowing, increased agrochemicals, loss of non-cropped habitat, land drainage, switch from hay to silage, grassland intensification) Population growth = 7.212 – 3.525 × risk score (p = 0.001) Population growth = 0.009 – 0.0064 × risk score (p < 0.001) Population growth = 0.008 – 0.004 × risk score (p = 0.001) Butterflies (24 spp): Birds (62 spp): Broadleaf plants (190 spp):

12. Trait-based risk assessment for introduction of Miscanthus bioenergy crops

13. Interpreting output from trait-based risk assessment Predict population trend Predict conservation status Individual species

14. Interpreting output from trait-based risk assessment Example: change from spring to autumn cereals Proportion of species Communities Predict population trend Predict conservation status Individual species

15. Summary Trait-based risk assessment is a potentially powerful approach for assessing agricultural risks (compatible with tiered approach) How to proceed in the absence of existing population data? Can trait-based RA be applied to ecological functions? How can risk assessment be integrated into assessment of agricultural sustainability? Risk assessors should define what they require the risk assessment to deliver (need for clear assessment endpoints and conceptual models) Questions arising…