Presentation on theme: "Progress report on estimation of the GTS costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment."— Presentation transcript:
Progress report on estimation of the GTS costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment before printing
1. Approach to estimation Analysis of difficulties in estimation (1) Great number of GTS components (2) Different types of GTS centers (3) Sensitive cost information (4) Ambiguous definition of the range of GTS costs (5) Regional/national differentials in network costs Assemble of methods (1) Sampling research (2) Modeling of classified centers (3) Collecting actual cost information on the condition of hiding center names (4) Simplifying cost items (5) Investigation of telecom market in typical regions Work and Outcome (1) Estimation of total GTS costs (2) Trend and prospect (3) Reference to improvement
2. Analysis of difficulties in estimation (1) The GTS consists of 222 nodes (centers), over 280 links (circuits) and supplementary systems.
(2) GTS centers are different in role, capability and scale.
(3)In most centers, budget and cost issues are sensitive or confidential. However half of them are positive to cooperate in the estimation on the condition that the name of centers never appear in the report. (4) It is difficult to define the range of GTS costs. According to the preliminary survey, the following cost items are possibly dilute the value of expected information: National data collection Indirect costs such as human resource and environment costs (machine room, electricity, air-conditioning …) (5) There are regional/national differentials in tariffs of telecom carriers and ISPs. Especially developing countries on telecom monopoly situation should be checked.
3. Assemble of methods in estimation (1) Modeling of classified GTS centers and sampling research Models Items Type 1: Lage scale (core RTHs on MTN) Type 2: Medium scale (RTHs on MTN and/or non-MTN) Type 3: Small scale (NMCs) Type 4: Minimum scale (Landline leaf-node NMCs) Message Switching System (MSS) Redundant configuration (e.g. hot stand-by) * Performance to switch 500 messages/sec and deal with incoming traffic of 4G bytes/day * Reliability over 99.95% with self -monitoring hardware and software problem * Replacement cycle is less than 8 years * Redundant configuration (e.g. hot stand-by) * Performance to switch 100 messages/sec and deal with incoming traffic of 1G bytes/day * Reliability over 99.9% * Redundant configuration (e.g. hot stand-by or backup machine) * Performance to deal with incoming traffic of about 200M bytes/day * Redundant configuration (e.g. backup machine) * Performance to deal with incoming traffic of about a few M bytes/day Network * Redundant configuration of network facilities * over 8 GTS connections * Redundant/backup management of network facilities * over 4 GTS connections * a few GTS connections * a GTS connection thru a landline or VSAT Supplementary System * Internet server for GTS data, Satellite broadcast and/or HF broadcast Number of centers 102353136 Appropriate sampling 3 - 53 - 54 - 64 - 65 - 85 - 85 - 85 - 8
(2) Simplifying cost items and collecting information Centers Expenditure items Example #1 : Type 1 (Large scale)Example #2 : Type 2 (Medium scale) Annual Cost in US $ Remarks Annual Cost in US $ Remarks System Costs Message Switching System (MSS) 2,257,000 * 6 year rental contract * 593,000 (H/W inclding maintenance) + 1,664,000 (S/W) 34,200 * Purchase & installation costs/ 8 years (life period) * 9,200 (H/W) + 18,800 (S/W) + 6,200 (installation) Network Equipment106,000* 6 year rental contract3,300 * Purchase/ 8 years (life period) * Routers, Switches and DSUs Satellite Communication System 0 13,000 * Purchase & installation costs/ 8 years * 1Way-VSAT for backup of data reception Other Supplementary System (e.g. Internet server for GTS data) 500,000 * purchase and maintenance costs / 5 years (life period) 0 Network Running Costs MPLS109,500 * Access ports: 2Mbps for provider A, and 3MbpsX2 for provider B 0 Leased Circuit148,50064kbpsX2 and 128kbps78,00064kbpsX1 and AnalogueX2 Internet for GTS Connections 200,000 100Mbps(SLA), including firewall and hosting services 3,70010Mbps (Best effort) Satellite Communication Service 0 0 Others12,300IP-VPN service350* VSAT license fee Sustainable Opeartation Costs Hardware Maintenance (preventive/recovery) 0* included in hardware rental fee5,700 * On-call recovery service & spare-parts (3 times/year average) Software Maintenance (Revision/Modification) 600,000* including SE support (day-time)14,600* Remote maintenance contract Training13,000 2,100 * 20-30 days by vendor during the first 4 years Total Cost3,946,300 154,950
(3) Investigation of telecom market MENA: Middle East & North Africa Regional distribution of investment in telecom market in 2009 10-15 major players Competitive situation Suitable positioning situation Revenue of major providers in Asia (2 nd half of 2010) 5 - 10 years
20112012 2Q3Q4Q1Q Deliverable Bringing draft outcome with RFC 4. Roadmap Collecting & analyzing Actual cost information Assemble of methods Preliminary survey Analysis of difficulties Investigation on telecom market Progress report to CBS-MG Final report to CBS-MG Finalizing outcome