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© Crown copyright Met Office MOGREPS-W First-guess Severe Weather Warnings for NSWWS Estimating Impact – a Risk tool
© Crown copyright Met Office The New National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS) Alerts/warnings based on likelihood and impact Alerts - issued more than 24 hours ahead Warnings - issued up to 24 hours ahead Regionally varying impact thresholds Alerts/warnings presented by shape areas on a map rather that just by county area
© Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 Regional Impact Thresholds Wind Gust RegionsRainfall Regions
© Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 Introduction to MOGREPS-W MOGREPS-R Grid-Point Probs ( 70mph) Severe Gales: 3 rd February 2011 DT: 06Z WED 02/02/2011 VT: 18Z THU 03/02/2011 MOGREPS-W Probability Severe Wind Gusts ( 70mph) Forecaster Issued Warnings of Severe Wind Gusts ( 70mph)
© Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 Calibration of MOGREPS-W Verification of 40mph forecasts Reliability Diagram (T+33h to T+42h forecasts) Under-forecasting ~36mph forecasts might be best at forecasting 40mph events Forecast Thresholds All forecast thresholds are verified as if they are forecasting 40mph events September 2010 to February 2011 (6 month period)
© Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 Impact-based MOGREPS-W Weather Impact Matrix High Medium Low Very Low LowMediumHigh 70mph80mph90mph Example of MOGREPS-W Wind Gust thresholds for the Highlands and Islands 1% 20% 40% 60% Example of MOGREPS-W probability thresholds Impact Likelihood
© Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 MOGREPS-W Example Ex-hurricane Katia, 12 th Sep 2011 MOGREPS-W first guess wind gust warning. Note small area of Red (but not enough to justify widespread) Good agreement with warning issued by forecaster on Sunday morning (right)
© Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 MOGREPS-W Example Heavy Rain on 24 th October 2011 Good agreement with warning issued by forecaster (below) 3h Rainfall 24h Rainfall MOGREPS-R p(24h-ppn>50mm) T+42 MOGREPS-G p(24h-ppn>50mm) T+48
Ensemble Forecasting of High-Impact Weather Richard Swinbank with thanks to various, mainly Met Office, colleagues High-Impact Weather THORPEX follow-on.
Page 1 © Crown copyright 2005 ECMWF User Meeting, June 2006 Developments in the Use of Short and Medium-Range Ensembles at the Met Office Ken Mylne.
Page 1© Crown copyright Some Strengths and Weaknesses of ECMWF Forecasts for the UK Tim Hewson 15 th June 2006 Contributors include: Eleanor Crompton,
Page 1© Crown copyright Operational Use of ECMWF products at the Met Office: Current practice, Verification and Ideas for the future Tim Hewson 17 th June.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 Presentation to ECMWF Forecast Product User Meeting 16th June 2005.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2005 Use of EPS at the Met Office Ken Mylne and Tim Legg.
ECMWF Forecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts Severe Weather Forecasts Ervin Zsoter.
SWFDP – Eastern Africa (pilot phase) Milestones (Planning and Management): Technical-Planning Workshop (Nairobi, Oct 2010) –Agreement that the SWFDP-EA.
The THORPEX Interactive Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Multi-model ensembles and Tropical cyclone forecasting Richard Swinbank, with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE.
© Crown copyright Met Office Public Education on warning services Sarah Davies UK Met Office Tuesday 27 th November 2012.
1 The role of ECMWF products in the optimisation of operational processes at KNMI Janneke Ottens Head Forecasting Division Thanks to: Robert Mureau, Kees.
ECMWF Slide 1Met Op training course – Reading, March 2004 Forecast verification: probabilistic aspects Anna Ghelli, ECMWF.
© Copyright IBM Corporation Precision Weather Modelling, Analytics and Visualization for Emergency Management Anthony P. Praino, Lloyd A. Treinish,
Danish Meteorological Institute EPS Forecast of Weather Scenarios and Probability Presented at by Michael Steffensen Acknowledgments:
Regional Models Lake Victoria Model Prepared by C. Tubbs, P. Davies, Met Office UK Revised, delivered by P. Chen, WMO Secretariat SWFDP-Eastern Africa.
Recent Experiences with the INM Multi-model EPS scheme García-Moya, J.A., Callado, A., Santos, C., Santos, D., Simarro, J., B Orfila. Modelling Area –
Application to Heavy Rainfall KYOUDA Masayuki Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency 9 th THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Working Group meeting.
© Crown copyright Met Office Service Evaluation. © Crown copyright Met Office Surveys Carried out after warnings issued via telephone Around 12 per year.
ANNUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, DISASTER PREPAREDNESS & CLIMATE WORKSHOP GUAM Chip Guard Warning Coordination Meteorologist Weather Forecast Office Guam.
Slide 1 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Summary Forecast Products User Meeting: June 2006 Summary.
17/02/03Designed by Barry Forbes Graphic Communication Scale Drawings.
AS-201 Weather Forecasting. This section discusses: 1.Various weather forecasting methods, their tools, and forecasting accuracy and skill 2.Images for.
ECMWF User Meeting / 1 Pertti Nurmi Juha Kilpinen Annakaisa Sarkanen ( Finnish Meteorological Institute ) Probabilistic Forecasts.
Ensemble Prediction Systems and Probabilistic Forecasting Richard (Rick) Jones SWFDP Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting Bujumbura, Burundi,
Slide 1 Predictability training course 2013, EPS applications: Droughts © ECMWF Applications of the EPS: Droughts Emanuel Dutra
Cliquez pour modifier le style du titre Cliquez pour modifier le style des sous-titres du masque 1 Nowcasting strategies : Rapid analysis refresh and high.
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Alan Seed Centre for Australian Weather.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 ECMWF Forecast Products Users Meeting 15th June 2006.
Lessons from the Southern African Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Eugene Poolman South African Weather Service Pretoria, South.
Use of Medium and Extended Range Forecasts in Slovenia Jure Cedilnik ARSO [EARS – Environmental Agency of Slovenia, Met. service]
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