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© Crown copyright Met Office MOGREPS-W First-guess Severe Weather Warnings for NSWWS Estimating Impact – a Risk tool
© Crown copyright Met Office The New National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS) Alerts/warnings based on likelihood and impact Alerts - issued more than 24 hours ahead Warnings - issued up to 24 hours ahead Regionally varying impact thresholds Alerts/warnings presented by shape areas on a map rather that just by county area
© Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 Regional Impact Thresholds Wind Gust RegionsRainfall Regions
© Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 Introduction to MOGREPS-W MOGREPS-R Grid-Point Probs ( 70mph) Severe Gales: 3 rd February 2011 DT: 06Z WED 02/02/2011 VT: 18Z THU 03/02/2011 MOGREPS-W Probability Severe Wind Gusts ( 70mph) Forecaster Issued Warnings of Severe Wind Gusts ( 70mph)
© Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 Calibration of MOGREPS-W Verification of 40mph forecasts Reliability Diagram (T+33h to T+42h forecasts) Under-forecasting ~36mph forecasts might be best at forecasting 40mph events Forecast Thresholds All forecast thresholds are verified as if they are forecasting 40mph events September 2010 to February 2011 (6 month period)
© Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 Impact-based MOGREPS-W Weather Impact Matrix High Medium Low Very Low LowMediumHigh 70mph80mph90mph Example of MOGREPS-W Wind Gust thresholds for the Highlands and Islands 1% 20% 40% 60% Example of MOGREPS-W probability thresholds Impact Likelihood
© Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 MOGREPS-W Example Ex-hurricane Katia, 12 th Sep 2011 MOGREPS-W first guess wind gust warning. Note small area of Red (but not enough to justify widespread) Good agreement with warning issued by forecaster on Sunday morning (right)
© Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 MOGREPS-W Example Heavy Rain on 24 th October 2011 Good agreement with warning issued by forecaster (below) 3h Rainfall 24h Rainfall MOGREPS-R p(24h-ppn>50mm) T+42 MOGREPS-G p(24h-ppn>50mm) T+48
Ensemble Forecasting of High-Impact Weather Richard Swinbank with thanks to various, mainly Met Office, colleagues High-Impact Weather THORPEX follow-on.
Warning Britain: The National Severe Weather Warning Service in action during three recent strong wind events A Fox, F Ralston & R Sherwin © Crown copyright.
Page 1 © Crown copyright 2005 ECMWF User Meeting, June 2006 Developments in the Use of Short and Medium-Range Ensembles at the Met Office Ken Mylne.
SWFDP – Eastern Africa (pilot phase) Milestones (Planning and Management): Technical-Planning Workshop (Nairobi, Oct 2010) –Agreement that the SWFDP-EA.
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no TEPS/LAMEPS at met.no Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner, Hilde Haakenstad and Ole Vignes.
© Crown copyright Met Office Becky Hemingway J. Robbins, J. Mooney and K. Mylne 13 th EMS / 11 th ECAM Meeting 9 th -13 th September 2013 ECAM5 Session:
ECMWF Forecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts Severe Weather Forecasts Ervin Zsoter.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2006ESWWIII, Royal Library of Belgium, Brussels, Nov 15 th 2006 Forecasting uncertainty: the ensemble solution Mike Keil, Ken Mylne,
EMS ECAM 13 september 2011 GlamEps: Current and future use in operational forecasting at KNMI Adrie Huiskamp.
© Crown copyright Met Office Developing and Communicating Warnings Sarah Davies UK Met Office Wednesday 17 th April 2013.
© Crown copyright Met Office Recent & planned developments to the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) Richard Swinbank,
Page 1© Crown copyright Some Strengths and Weaknesses of ECMWF Forecasts for the UK Tim Hewson 15 th June 2006 Contributors include: Eleanor Crompton,
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LAMEPS – Limited area ensemble forecasting in Norway, using targeted EPS Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner,
© Crown copyright Met Office Probabilistic turbulence forecasts from ensemble models and verification Philip Gill and Piers Buchanan NCAR Aviation Turbulence.
Probabilistic Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation Events for the U.S. Hazards Assessment Kenneth Pelman 32 nd Climate Diagnostics Workshop Tallahassee,
Deutscher Wetterdienst Zentrale Vorhersage DWD Workshop "Use and Verification of LEPS products", Geneve, May, Verification of LEPS products.
ECMWF Slide 1Met Op training course – Reading, March 2004 Forecast verification: probabilistic aspects Anna Ghelli, ECMWF.
Page 1© Crown copyright Sarah Beare (nee John) Neill Bowler, Marie Dando, Anette Van der Wal, Rob Darvell Performance of the MOGREPS Regional Ensemble.
November Floods After a week of continuous heavy rains over most parts of the country, most rivers became flooded as a result. The rains were most heavy.
How can LAMEPS * help you to make a better forecast for extreme weather Henrik Feddersen, DMI * LAMEPS =Limited-Area Model Ensemble Prediction.
AS. 02/03 Finding fractions of a quantity AS. 02/03.
o Weather and climate o Climate variability and climate change o Different time scales and forecasts o Early warning, early action o Vanuatus changing.
UNCLASSIFIED KLC Weather Forecast 28 September 2011 Wednesday Issued: 28/1600Z (0800L)
Danish Meteorological Institute EPS Forecast of Weather Scenarios and Probability Presented at by Michael Steffensen Acknowledgments:
Multiplication X 1 1 x 1 = 1 2 x 1 = 2 3 x 1 = 3 4 x 1 = 4 5 x 1 = 5 6 x 1 = 6 7 x 1 = 7 8 x 1 = 8 9 x 1 = 9 10 x 1 = x 1 = x 1 = 12 X 2 1.
© Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)
Least Common Multiples and Greatest Common Factors Lesson 4.3.
Division ÷ 1 1 ÷ 1 = 1 2 ÷ 1 = 2 3 ÷ 1 = 3 4 ÷ 1 = 4 5 ÷ 1 = 5 6 ÷ 1 = 6 7 ÷ 1 = 7 8 ÷ 1 = 8 9 ÷ 1 = 9 10 ÷ 1 = ÷ 1 = ÷ 1 = 12 ÷ 2 2 ÷ 2 =
© Crown copyright Met Office DIAMET forecast products.
Page 1© Crown copyright Operational Use of ECMWF products at the Met Office: Current practice, Verification and Ideas for the future Tim Hewson 17 th June.
Deutscher Wetterdienst Central Forecasting DWD ECMWF Forecast Product Users Meeting June Predicting severe weather by EPS tools - current.
Break Time Remaining 10:00. Break Time Remaining 9:59.
DLMSO Classroom Timer Select a time to count down from the clock above 60 min 45 min 30 min 20 min 15 min 10 min 5 min or less.
© Crown copyright Met Office Enhanced rainfall services Paul Davies.
Use of Medium and Extended Range Forecasts in Slovenia Jure Cedilnik ARSO [EARS – Environmental Agency of Slovenia, Met. service]
1 1 = = = 18 9 = 30 5 = = 36 9 =
Translating Scientific Advancement into Sustained Improvement of Tropical Cyclone Warnings – the Hong Kong Experience C.Y. Lam Hong Kong Observatory Hong.
13:00 Clock will move after 1 minute PPT – VCIC Timer 15.ppt.
SIPR Dundee. © Crown copyright Scottish Flood Forecasting Service Pete Buchanan – Met Office Richard Maxey – SEPA SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011.
Translating verification experience from meteorology to space weather Suzy Bingham ESWW splinter session, Thurs. 20 th Nov.
BMU - E I 1 Development of renewable energy sources in Germany in
Adding Up In Chunks. Category 1 Adding multiples of ten to any number.
Steve Taylor Flood Forecasting Team Leader Anglian Region Environment Agency.
Historic Winter Storm/Blizzard February 8-9, 2013 Historic Winter Storm/Blizzard February 8-9, 2013 Updated Headlines: 4 PM Thursday, February 7 th, 2013.
Georgetown KY Terra Dague. Temperature Temperature for today is 58.
1 1 = = = = = 6.
© Crown copyright Met Office Public Education on warning services Sarah Davies UK Met Office Tuesday 27 th November 2012.
0 x x2 0 0 x1 0 0 x3 0 1 x7 7 2 x0 0 9 x0 0.
Copyright©amberpasillas2010 Least Common Multiple LCM 2 Methods.
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