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MOGREPS-W First-guess Severe Weather Warnings for NSWWSEstimating Impact – a Risk tool © Crown copyright Met Office
The New National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS)Alerts/warnings based on likelihood and impact Alerts - issued more than 24 hours ahead Warnings - issued up to 24 hours ahead Regionally varying impact thresholds Alerts/warnings presented by shape areas on a map rather that just by county area As part of the Public Weather Service (PWS), the Met Office is responsible for the National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS), which aims to give advance warning of extreme weather to: the public, businesses, emergency services and Government. © Crown copyright Met Office 2
Regional Impact ThresholdsRainfall Regions Wind Gust Regions Highlands and Islands Highlands and Islands Rest of Scotland Northern Island Rest of UK England and Wales London and SE © Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011 3
Introduction to MOGREPS-WSevere Gales: 3rd February 2011 DT: 06Z WED 02/02/ VT: 18Z THU 03/02/2011 Post-processing setup Uses MOGREPS-R 24members, 18km, 70L, T+54h The first version of the system created area probability forecasts for both severe and extreme rainfall, snowfall, and wind gusts, using criteria from the National Severe Weather Warning Service. Aims of the system Provide guidance of upcoming severe weather, hopefully increasing the lead time of any forecaster issued warnings Provide a more objective basis for assessing risk and making probability statements. Case Study: This 36hr forecast from MOGREPS-R shows the grid point probabilities (left) and the MOGREPS-W area probabilities (right) The grid point probabilities show greater than 99% probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 70mph (which was the old severe warning threshold) in the Western Isles, Western Highlands and up towards Orkney and Shetland. The wind speeds drop off over land – which is probably a slight under-estimation. Peaks in the Cairngorms National Park recorded gusts in excess of 100mph. Using the grid point information for each member, MOGREPS-W went for a “Be Prepared” in Western Scotland and the lowlands of the Scottish Borders, with a “Be Aware” in Aberdeenshire and some southern counties. A few of the Scottish counties are still Green. MOGREPS-W has a tendency to under forecast some severe weather events and this is demonstrated in the verification… MOGREPS-W Probability Severe Wind Gusts (≥ 70mph) Forecaster Issued Warnings of Severe Wind Gusts (≥ 70mph) MOGREPS-R Grid-Point Probs (≥ 70mph) © Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011
Calibration of MOGREPS-W Verification of 40mph forecastsReliability Diagram (T+33h to T+42h forecasts) Forecast Thresholds All forecast thresholds are verified as if they are forecasting 40mph events September 2010 to February 2011 (6 month period) Under-forecasting ~36mph forecasts might be best at forecasting 40mph events © Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011
Impact-based MOGREPS-W Weather Impact MatrixHigh Medium Low Very Low ≥60% ≥40% Likelihood ≥20% ≥1% Example of MOGREPS-W Wind Gust thresholds for the “Highlands and Islands” Same probability thresholds for each county Different impact thresholds for each county/region Impact Example of MOGREPS-W probability thresholds ≥70mph ≥80mph ≥90mph © Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011
MOGREPS-W Example Ex-hurricane Katia, 12th Sep 2011MOGREPS-W first guess wind gust warning. Note small area of Red (but not enough to justify widespread) Good agreement with warning issued by forecaster on Sunday morning (right) © Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011
MOGREPS-W Example Heavy Rain on 24th October 2011Good agreement with warning issued by forecaster (below) MOGREPS-R p(24h-ppn>50mm) T+42 3h Rainfall MOGREPS-G p(24h-ppn>50mm) T+48 24h Rainfall © Crown copyright Met Office ECMWF Operations Workshop, Nov 2011
Ensemble Forecasting of High-Impact Weather Richard Swinbank with thanks to various, mainly Met Office, colleagues High-Impact Weather THORPEX follow-on.
Warning Britain: The National Severe Weather Warning Service in action during three recent strong wind events A Fox, F Ralston & R Sherwin © Crown copyright.
Page 1 © Crown copyright 2005 ECMWF User Meeting, June 2006 Developments in the Use of Short and Medium-Range Ensembles at the Met Office Ken Mylne.
SWFDP – Eastern Africa (pilot phase) Milestones (Planning and Management): Technical-Planning Workshop (Nairobi, Oct 2010) –Agreement that the SWFDP-EA.
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no TEPS/LAMEPS at met.no Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner, Hilde Haakenstad and Ole Vignes.
© Crown copyright Met Office Becky Hemingway J. Robbins, J. Mooney and K. Mylne 13 th EMS / 11 th ECAM Meeting 9 th -13 th September 2013 ECAM5 Session:
Severe Weather Forecasts
Page 1© Crown copyright 2006ESWWIII, Royal Library of Belgium, Brussels, Nov 15 th 2006 Forecasting uncertainty: the ensemble solution Mike Keil, Ken Mylne,
EMS ECAM 13 september 2011 GlamEps: Current and future use in operational forecasting at KNMI Adrie Huiskamp.
© Crown copyright Met Office Developing and Communicating Warnings Sarah Davies UK Met Office Wednesday 17 th April 2013.
Recent & planned developments to the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) Richard Swinbank, Warren Tennant, Sarah Beare,
Page 1© Crown copyright Some Strengths and Weaknesses of ECMWF Forecasts for the UK Tim Hewson 15 th June 2006 Contributors include: Eleanor Crompton,
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LAMEPS – Limited area ensemble forecasting in Norway, using targeted EPS Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner,
© Crown copyright Met Office Probabilistic turbulence forecasts from ensemble models and verification Philip Gill and Piers Buchanan NCAR Aviation Turbulence.
Probabilistic Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation Events for the U.S. Hazards Assessment Kenneth Pelman 32 nd Climate Diagnostics Workshop Tallahassee,
Deutscher Wetterdienst Zentrale Vorhersage DWD Workshop "Use and Verification of LEPS products", Geneve, May, Verification of LEPS products.
ECMWF Slide 1Met Op training course – Reading, March 2004 Forecast verification: probabilistic aspects Anna Ghelli, ECMWF.
Performance of the MOGREPS Regional Ensemble
November Floods After a week of continuous heavy rains over most parts of the country, most rivers became flooded as a result. The rains were most heavy.
How can LAMEPS * help you to make a better forecast for extreme weather Henrik Feddersen, DMI * LAMEPS =Limited-Area Model Ensemble Prediction.
AS. 02/03 Finding fractions of a quantity AS. 02/03.
Welcome to the Cloud Nasara!
UNCLASSIFIED KLC Weather Forecast 28 September 2011 Wednesday Issued: 28/1600Z (0800L)
Danish Meteorological Institute EPS Forecast of Weather Scenarios and Probability Presented at by Michael Steffensen Acknowledgments:
Multiplication X 1 1 x 1 = 1 2 x 1 = 2 3 x 1 = 3 4 x 1 = 4 5 x 1 = 5 6 x 1 = 6 7 x 1 = 7 8 x 1 = 8 9 x 1 = 9 10 x 1 = x 1 = x 1 = 12 X 2 1.
© Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)
Least Common Multiples and Greatest Common Factors
Division ÷ 1 1 ÷ 1 = 1 2 ÷ 1 = 2 3 ÷ 1 = 3 4 ÷ 1 = 4 5 ÷ 1 = 5 6 ÷ 1 = 6 7 ÷ 1 = 7 8 ÷ 1 = 8 9 ÷ 1 = 9 10 ÷ 1 = ÷ 1 = ÷ 1 = 12 ÷ 2 2 ÷ 2 =
© Crown copyright Met Office DIAMET forecast products.
Operational Use of ECMWF products at the Met Office: Current practice, Verification and Ideas for the future Tim Hewson 17th June 2005 © Crown copyright.
Deutscher Wetterdienst Central Forecasting DWD ECMWF Forecast Product Users Meeting June Predicting severe weather by EPS tools - current.
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© Crown copyright Met Office Enhanced rainfall services Paul Davies.
Use of Medium and Extended Range Forecasts in Slovenia Jure Cedilnik ARSO [EARS – Environmental Agency of Slovenia, Met. service]
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Translating Scientific Advancement into Sustained Improvement of Tropical Cyclone Warnings – the Hong Kong Experience C.Y. Lam Hong Kong Observatory Hong.
2011年上半年 我院团学工作活动图片展播 2011年8月28日.
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SIPR Dundee. © Crown copyright Scottish Flood Forecasting Service Pete Buchanan – Met Office Richard Maxey – SEPA SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011.
Translating verification experience from meteorology to space weather Suzy Bingham ESWW splinter session, Thurs. 20 th Nov.
Development of renewable energy sources in Germany in 2011
Adding Up In Chunks.
Steve Taylor Flood Forecasting Team Leader Anglian Region
Historic Winter Storm/Blizzard February 8-9, 2013 Historic Winter Storm/Blizzard February 8-9, 2013 Updated Headlines: 4 PM Thursday, February 7 th, 2013.
Georgetown KY Terra Dague. Temperature Temperature for today is 58.
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© Crown copyright Met Office Public Education on warning services Sarah Davies UK Met Office Tuesday 27 th November 2012.
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Least Common Multiple LCM 2 Methods
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