1. ASSTAR User Forum #1 Rome 4th April 2006 ASAS-TN2 Second Workshop ASSTAR Safety Approach and Preliminary Issues Dr Giuseppe GRANIERO, SICTA ggraniero@sicta.it

2. page 2 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006 Contents  Objectives of the Safety analysis in ASSTAR  Scope  The followed approach  Major activities  Planned deliverables  Current status  Preliminary safety issues per Radar applications  Planned activities per Oceanic applications

3. page 3 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006 Safety assessment - Objectives  Assess Safety impact of the ASSTAR applications  Provide early feedback to concept & procedure under development –Qualitative Assessment –Quantitative Assessment  Definition of Targets for safety quantification –According to the ESARR4 Guidelines and ICAO Regulations  Evaluate the impact of ASSTAR results on existing regulations

4. page 4 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006 Scope ApplicationScenarioEnvironmentPO-ASAS Category Lateral Crossing & Passing Co-altitude, Climbing Descending ASEP LC&P Radar En-RouteAirborne Separation Vertical CrossingIn Trail Procedure ATSA/ASEP-ITP Oceanic OTS / UPRTraffic Situation Awareness / Airborne Separation Longitudinal SpacingIn Trail Follow ASEP-ITF Oceanic OTS / UPRAirborne Separation Self SeparationFree Flight on an Oceanic Track SSEP-FFT Oceanic OTSAirborne Self Separation  Given the following application:  What is feasible within the ASSTAR timeframe… –Avoiding redo previous work?

5. page 5 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006 The Approach  Step 1 – Identification of Safety metrics –Likelihood and Severity of hazards –Risk Classification Scheme  Combination of likelihood and severity to classify the risk [ref. SAM 2.0 Guidance Material E]  Step 2 - Operational Description –From previous WPs –From other projects  Step 3 – Hazards Identifications –Adaptation of existing OHA wherever applicable –Description of the threat, causes and consequences (RTS)  Step 4 – Safety Objectives  Step 5 – Safety Scenarios

6. page 6 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006 Layered Safety Approach More Autonomous Aircraft in Future ATM System Implications on ACAS Performances Performances due to ASAS implementation Requirements Focus Focus Group works Outstanding Issues Initial Hazards identification Preliminary Results Areas of Interest OperationalDescription Mediterranean Free Flight RADAREnvironment OCEANICEnvironment

7. page 7 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006 Major Activities Safety Scenarios Safety Targets Target Level of Safety Recommendations D6.3RegulatoryProcedures SAFETYSAFETYSAFETYSAFETY ASSESSMENTASSESSMENTASSESSMENTASSESSMENT Quantitative Qualitative D6.1 OHA for the Selected ApplicationsD6.2 Operational Safety Performances of the Selected Applications

8. page 8 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006  Expected results will be collected into the following deliverables: –Safety Policy and Plan was circulated in December 2005 Planned Deliverables Id.TitlePlanned Date D1.6Preliminary Risk Assessment12/05/2006 D6-1 Operational Hazard Assessments for the selected applications 25/10/2006 D6-2 Operational Safety Performance of the selected applications. 20/04/2007 D6-3 Recommendations and draft regulatory procedures 17/08/2007

9. page 9 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006 Current Status Safety Policy… Safety Policy…  high level objectives of the safety assessment …& Plan …& Plan  methodology, activities and deliverables compliant with the policy Preliminary Risk Assessment Assessment  Consolidation of the Safety Policy & Plan  Identification of open safety issues  Safety Targets and Target Level of Safety determination D1.5 Updated Safety Policy & Plan D1.6 Preliminary Risk Assessment

10. page 10 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006 Preliminary Safety Issues - Radar  ASSTAR Lateral Crossing & Passing –Misidentification of the target by the delegated aircraft –Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty –Pilot & Controller acceptance of the ASAS Separation operations –Phraseology –Influence of the ASAS separation minimum

11. page 11 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006 Planned Activities – Oceanic (1/3)  Airborne Traffic Situation Awareness – In Trail Procedure Considering that the RFG Operational Safety Assessment is in progress the following activities could be considered: –Review of existing Operational Safety Assessment –Quantitative evaluation of the safety performances as appropriate  Airborne Separation – In Trail Procedure Considering its similarity to ATSA – ITP the following activities could be considered: –To analyse the additional crew task to monitor and maintain spacing to specific aircraft during the execution of the manoeuvre –To analyse the safety aspects of a sequence of aircraft with different performance characteristics

12. page 12 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006 Planned Activities – Oceanic (2/3)  Airborne Separation – In Trail Follow –To build an OHA, adapting the existing material to the oceanic environment –To quantitatively assess the amount of freedom pilots have in changing speed during an ASEP-ITF manoeuvre, in terms of incident and accident frequencies, focussing on the predictability of the last aircraft in an ITF queue –To support the definition of the numerical values of the airborne separation minima and spacing tolerance, by estimating the collision risk as function of those variables

13. page 13 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006 Planned Activities – Oceanic (3/3)  Free Flight on an organised track system is significantly different from true Free Flight, and some existing results can not be copied without considerations about these differences. The ASSTAR project could therefore consider the following activities: –To identify hazards that do not apply for comparable Free Flight concepts. –To consider earlier safety recommendations in detail and to validate their applicability. –To extend the modelling capabilities and to execute Fast Time simulations of the application in order to estimate the collision risk.  In addition to that, special attention will be paid to the evaluation of the conflict resolution algorithms.

14. page 14 ASSTAR User Forum – Rome, 4th April 2006 Thank you