Presentation on theme: "Ecological Indicators: Software Development Sergei Rodionov Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle,"— Presentation transcript:
Ecological Indicators: Software Development Sergei Rodionov Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
Outline Part I. Red noise problem. Upgrade to the regime shift detection method (STARS). Part II. Knowledge management system for the Bering Sea.
True and spurious regime shifts
Entry Form for STARS
Estimates of AR1 for PDO
PDO Index Before and After Prewhitening
Part II. Dealing with Information Overload Dimensionality reduction (e.g., principal component analysis, singular value decomposition, multidimensional scaling) Knowledge management system
Components of the KMS Data Explorer Rule Explorer Inference Engine Graphical Interface Search Facility Reporting Facility
List of rules (partial) with the IF variables that affect walleye pollock recruitment
Part of the influence diagram for walleye pollock recruitment
Rule Edit Form
Example of a rule IF ENSO event = El Niño, AND Aleutian low circulation type = W1, THEN SAT at St. Paul = above normal; CF = 10.
Running the project to find the value of the target variable
Questions about the variable in the terminal nodes
Confidence Factors CF = (P(C | e) P(¬C | e)) * 100%, CF = Degree of Belief – Degree of Disbelief CF comb = CF old + CF new (CF old * CF new )/100.
Custom Property Window
Report documenting the inference process
A spoon is valuable at the lunch time. Russian proverb