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EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Thomas Selhorst & Thomas Müller FLI Friedrich-Löffler-Institut :: Institute for Epidemiology.

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Presentation on theme: "EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Thomas Selhorst & Thomas Müller FLI Friedrich-Löffler-Institut :: Institute for Epidemiology."— Presentation transcript:

1 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Thomas Selhorst & Thomas Müller FLI Friedrich-Löffler-Institut :: Institute for Epidemiology Wusterhausen/Germany Scenario-analysis evaluating emergency strategies after rabies re-introduction Hans-Hermann Thulke & Dirk Eisinger Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ :: Dept. of Ecological Modelling Leipzig/Germany Conceptual frame – Alternative Ring – Alternative Dough – Conclusion

2 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Scope Scope: Rabies-free region + naïve population X Large scale countrywide vaccination successful in past here economically useless Strategy Strategy: Limited control area Conceptual frame – Alternative Ring – Alternative Dough – Conclusion

3 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Target Target: Eradication + Avoiding breakout from control area Conceptual frame – Alternative Ring – Alternative Dough – Conclusion X Compact circle with 20 baits per km 2 Vaccinated area Unvaccinated area Rabies detection X X X X X X X X X X X XX X Strategy Strategy: Limited control area Increase control area…

4 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Alternative: Ring (Vaccinated area constant + number of baits equal + distance differs) X X X X X XX X X X X X X X X COMBAT CONTAIN C IRCLE R ING X X X X X X X X X X X X XX X 3Conceptual frame – Alternative Ring – Alternative Dough – Conclusion

5 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology C IRCLE R ING Time [campaigns] Simulation results Simulation results: Circle vs. Ring ? Conceptual frame – Alternative Ring – Alternative Dough – Conclusion (10.000 repetitions) Risk of Breakout

6 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Strategy Risk of breakout higher Ring design Ring design: Public Health Economy More cases of rabies (inner part epidemic starts) Prolongation of measure (inner part vaccinated later) Conceptual frame – Alternative Ring – Alternative Dough – Conclusion

7 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Conceptual frame – Alternative Ring – Alternative Dough – Conclusion Eisinger et al. (2005) BMC Inf Dis 5:10 Emergency vaccination of rabies under limited resources – combating or containing? Compact control area around detection is mandatory!

8 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology COMBAT COVER D OUGH X X X X X XX X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XX X C IRCLE X X X X X X X X X X X X XX X Focused COMBAT 20 baits per km 2 10 baits per km 2 40 baits per km 2 Alternative: Alternative: Bait density (Immediate combat + Number of baits equal + vaccinated area differs) Conceptual frame – Alternative Ring – Alternative Dough – Conclusion

9 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Simulation results Simulation results: Area vs. density _ _ + ? Dough thinner … Dough thicker Conceptual frame – Alternative Ring – Alternative Dough – Conclusion (10.000 repetitions) Risk of Breakout [%]

10 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Dough design by: Dough design by: Strategy slightly thinner advantageous Public Health Economy The thicker the quicker is eradication The thicker the fewer rabies cases Conceptual frame – Alternative Ring – Alternative Dough – Conclusion

11 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Conclusion Model-based pre-testing helpful Development and evaluation of alternatives Ring not applicable Immediate combat of the outbreak is mandatory Lower bait density and larger area beneficial Trading-off between success and control costs or rabies occurrence Need for further research! Mixed application according to situation X x ? Conceptual frame – Alternative Ring – Alternative Dough – Conclusion

12 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Thank you

13 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Scenario deduction – Model description – Scenario evaluation – Conclusion & outlook Model Description Evaluation of relative performance of alternative scenarios Simulation experiment 5

14 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Scenario deduction – Model description – Scenario evaluation – Conclusion & outlook Fox families in grid cells Spatial organization Reproduction in spring Dispersal in autumn Seasonality Individual foxes (Position & age, sex & disease state) Population Model realisation Simulation model – Rule based suscept.infectedinfectiousempty i.e. Sayers et al. 1985

15 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Scenario deduction – Model description – Scenario evaluation – Conclusion & outlook Individuals: Mortality Reproduction Bait uptake Subadults: Dispersal Model rules :: Biology

16 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Scenario deduction – Model description – Scenario evaluation – Conclusion & outlook Neighborhood contacts Model rules :: Rabies transmission

17 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Scenario deduction – Model description – Scenario evaluation – Conclusion & outlook Neighborhood contacts Mating activity Model rules :: Rabies transmission Dispersal

18 EcoEpi – Dept. Ecological ModellingInstitute for Epidemiology Scenario deduction – Model description – Scenario evaluation – Conclusion & outlook Model rules :: Bait distribution 1 - 40 baits/km 2 (Spring & Atumn campaigns) Spatial assignment to fox families Bait competition Individual bait uptake


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