Presentation on theme: "THE STRENGHT OF 70% REVISING A GIVEN THRESHOLD OF RABIES CONTROL Tollwut Suveillance Data UFZ - Project group Ecological Epidemiology EcoEpi Leipzig Modell."— Presentation transcript:
THE STRENGHT OF 70% REVISING A GIVEN THRESHOLD OF RABIES CONTROL Tollwut Suveillance Data UFZ - Project group Ecological Epidemiology EcoEpi Leipzig Modell
Quantifying possible benefit… Todays target 75% 10% less Apply relation to field strategy… 20 14 20 instead of 14 baits/km 2 cost additionally 120.000 p.a. per 10.000 km² vaccination area Construct relation between bait density and immunization level… Simulation: Target immunity down by 10 percentage points necessary baits decrease by one third.
SummarySummary Appropriate modelling and field observations coincidentally suggest 60% herd immunity and as useful target in rabies control thus Relative to today's baiting strategy one third of applied resources could be saved by applying 14 baits per sq km ?
Thank you for your attention D. Eisinger L. Tischendorf M. Müller V. Grimm F. Jeltsch C. Wissel T. Müller C. Staubach T. Selhorst H. Schlüter
EcoEpi – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Simulation Model Target down by 10 percentage points = Baits decrease by 30% General relation:
EcoEpi – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Population model (Anderson et al. 1981) Individual-based model (Eisinger et al. 2005) Two models of fox rabies Start of vaccination campaign Both models reflect dynamics of field data correctly!
EcoEpi – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Vaccination Biannual bait distribution along flight lines Individual bait consumption Transmission Within group contacts Neighbourhood contacts Mating activity Dispersal Foxes in families Mortality/Reproduction Dispersal Simulation Model
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