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ISSA European Regional Meeting Oslo, May 2007 Inclusion in Working Life Living longer? Working longer? Reflections on morbidity in the light of a rising.

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Presentation on theme: "ISSA European Regional Meeting Oslo, May 2007 Inclusion in Working Life Living longer? Working longer? Reflections on morbidity in the light of a rising."— Presentation transcript:

1 ISSA European Regional Meeting Oslo, May 2007 Inclusion in Working Life Living longer? Working longer? Reflections on morbidity in the light of a rising pension age Bernard H Casey Institute for Employment Research University of Warwick

2 Living longer? Working longer? There are known unknowns. That is to say, We know there are some things We do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, The ones we don't know We don't know from The Collected Poems of Donald Rumsfeld

3 Living longer? Working longer? Outline Pension age Longevity trends Morbidity trends Occupational morbidity Health in later working life Conclusions

4 Living longer? Working longer? Pension age (1) The UK example –a contributory pension since 1925 with pension age at 65 –Pension Commission (Turner) save more work longer –2006 White Paper pension age to 68 by 2044

5 Living longer? Working longer? Pension age (2) Life expectancy at 65 (men) –1925, c10-11 years –1950, c12 years –2003, c19 years –2044, c22 years Proportion of extra years spent not working – , 100% – , 2%

6 Living longer? Working longer? Longevity trends (1) Consistent underestimation Male cohort life expectancy at 65 in the UK source: Pensions Commission, using GAD data

7 Living longer? Working longer? Longevity trends (2) Longevity and pension finance –most important threat to scheme sustainability Limits to longevity? life expectancy time continuously increasing stabilising declining

8 Living longer? Working longer? Mortality trends in the USA

9 Living longer? Working longer? Morbidity trends (1) Are extra years good or healthy years? life span

10 Living longer? Working longer? Morbidity trends (2) Compression/extension of morbidity concern of health economists –demand for care Questions arising –substitution of morbidity for mortality? –adequacy of measures of morbidity? Discussion relates mainly to very old –need to consider situation of people in later stage of working life

11 Living longer? Working longer? Occupational morbidity Implications of (possible) trends in longevity for morbidity –extension of morbidity and occupational morbidity Discussion of older worker disadvantages –qualifications deficits, adaptability deficits, amortisation time, pay relative to productivity Cross-cohort differences in health on the verge of retirement –US war babies and early baby boomers relative to pre-war babies

12 Living longer? Working longer? Health in later working life (1) Obesity, cohort effects –currently children and prime aged Cirrhosis, cohort effects –currently young people Implications of above for diabetes, cancer, circulatory problems and even muscular- skeletal problems –morbidity before retirement age

13 Living longer? Working longer? Obesity trends in the USA source: Sturm, J. 2007

14 Living longer? Working longer? Diabetes trends in Canada Source: Lipscome, L. and Hux, J., 2006

15 Living longer? Working longer? Cirrhosis trends in the UK (England) Not only is cirrhosis getting commoner, it is presenting at a younger age, and patients in their 20s and 30s with end stage alcoholic liver disease are now being seen by liver specialists around the UK (Chairman of Royal College of Physicians Alcohol Committee, 2006)

16 Living longer? Working longer? Health in later working life (2) Work and stress –problems of consistent indicators work intensity, job control, job satisfaction, job security –findings from earlier research (European) stress increased in early 90s, plateaued in later 90s newer results – further increases?

17 Living longer? Working longer? Work stress trends in Europe Proportion worjing at very hight soeedProportion worjing at very hight soeed proportion working at very high speed to tight deadlines Source: EFILWC European working conditions surveys

18 Living longer? Working longer? Health in later working life (3) Sources of stress –economic insecurity –increased competition Comparisons of USA and UK source: Banks, Marmot, Oldfield and Smith, 2006

19 Living longer? Working longer? Health in later working life (4) Stress and early retirement –UK incapacity benefits for and mental and behavioural disorders 1995, c22% of stock; 2005, c40% of stock not just a UK phenomenon, ISSA 6 country study, OECD on Switzerland Impact of stress on physical health –circulatory system, diabetes, use of alcohol Impact of physical health on mental health –joint determinants on exit/benefit claims

20 Living longer? Working longer? Conclusions Is the future already here? –the USA - England comparison Will we really be up to working longer? –the question the UK Pensions Commission never really answered Was Donald Rumsfeld right? –future work for ISSA


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