1. Taming Uncertainties in Multi-Scale Pest and Disease Model and Decision Support Tools for Plant Biosecurity Award number: 2006-55605-16662 Period of Funding: Jan. 2006 – Dec. 2008 Primary Institution: Oregon State University Project Director: Leonard B. Coop Other Principle Investigators: Chris Daly Oregon State University daly@coas.oregonstate.edu Alan Fox Fox Weather alan@foxweather.com Dave Gent USDA-ARS gentd@onid.orst.edu Gary Grove Washington State University grove@wsu.edu Doug Gubler University California, Davis wdgubler@ucdavis.edu Paul Jepson Oregon State University jepsonp@science.oregonstate.edu Walter Mahaffee USDA-ARS mahaffew@science.oregonstate.edu William Pfender USDA-ARS pfenderw@onid.orst.edu George Taylor Oregon State University taylor@oce.orst.edu

2. Taming Uncertainties in Multi-Scale Pest and Disease Model and Decision Support Tools for Plant Biosecurity Goal: To document the uncertainties and errors associated with all aspects of disease modeling, while building a system that can serve both plant biosecurity and integrated pest management (IPM) needs in the Western US. - We are presently 18 months into this 3-year program, and have made significant progress in the areas of 1) Spatialized weather forecasting systems relevant to plant disease modeling needs 2) Infrastructure for pest and plant disease modeling 3) Targeted climatologies 4) Field validations and uncertainty analyses.

3. 1) Spatialized weather forecasting systems relevant to plant disease modeling needs Forecast #1 – IPPC server S. WA + OR Forecast #2 – Fox weather server – N. Calif. Current Forecast Extent

4. . 10,000+ public weather station data QA NOAA GFS/NAM model forecasts Fox Weather/IPPC models + PRISM Climate models WRF mesoscale model Kim et al. leaf wetness model Database of modular pest models Site-specific pest and disease model-relevant weather forecasts Web GIS User Interface 1. Plant Biosecurity 2. IPM Process Inputs Outputs 1. Plant Disease Forecast System Overview Uncertainties reports Uncertainties analysis 100 km 6hr -> 7 days 800m 1hr 36 km

5. Disease model and forecast infrastructure – building upon IPPC/NPDN website tools

6. Disease weather system prototype (NPDN)

7. Fox Weather /IPPC plant disease weather forecast verification system - day0 to day6 forecasts - near real time entire forecast region (ex. OR + S. WA)

8. Online Plant Disease Model Forecast + Evaluation Tool – e. g. comparison of 3 days Fox Weather forecast with actual data for: -apple scab -powdery mildew - temperature -leaf wetness I grant permission to USDA/CSREES to use this information for communicating about this project.

9. NRI PRISM-Aided Downscaling Methods and Activities PRISM Group Oregon State University An analysis and prediction system is being developed that taps the ability of long-term climatological patterns to inform estimates of current and forecast weather patterns

10. 1971-2000, all-day monthly PRISM Climatologies

11. E flow example: cyclonic curvature June 5, 1993 1200 UTC NE flow example: cyclonic curvature February 5, 1989 0000 UTC

12. Relative importance of 700-mb flow direction in NWOR Frequency Precipitation

13. NW Flow 1971-2000 all-day mean annual precipitation expressed as a percentage of the domain-wide mean precipitation itation

14. Percent of the normalized all-day mean annual precipitation Climo PRISM S (Southerly) 700-mb flow 1971-2000 mean annual precipitation Percent of the domain-wide precipitation

15. NW flow 1971-2000 mean annual precipitation climatology (Expressed as percent of the domain-wide precipitation) 700-mb NW flow Example Targeted Climatology - January 31, 1990 0000 UTC I grant permission to USDA/CSREES to use this information for communicating about this project.

16. Field Validation Work (1 of 6 validation partners funded; others seeking additional support) CropCoordinating Plant Pathologist Hops Dave Gent USDA-ARS CherriesGary Grove Washington State University WinegrapesDoug Gubler University California, Davis StrawberriesWalter Mahaffee USDA-ARS Grass SeedWilliam Pfender USDA-ARS -weather data are collected in canopy and at standard heights and positions out of canopy -for error and uncertainties analysis and development of correction curves for each weather parameter

18. Taming Uncertainties in Multi-Scale Pest and Disease Model and Decision Support Tools for Plant Biosecurity 1) Spatialized weather forecasting systems relevant to plant disease modeling needs 2) Infrastructure for pest and plant disease modeling 3) Targeted climatologies 4) Field validations and uncertainty analyses. Additional and Future efforts: - Planning operational tests of forecasts/models for 2008 in selected tree fruit and grass seed regions - Test of first targeted climatologies system for 2008 in Oregon grass seed - Submitted Areawide IPM proposal to greatly expand operational capability of the system in numerous commodities and regions - Check out APS posters for Western Weather Systems Workgroup, Grass Seed Stem Rust model and uncertainties analysis