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Activities of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) relevant for the assessment of spatial development in Europe Contact : Carlo Lavalle Joint Research Centre.

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Presentation on theme: "Activities of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) relevant for the assessment of spatial development in Europe Contact : Carlo Lavalle Joint Research Centre."— Presentation transcript:

1 Activities of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) relevant for the assessment of spatial development in Europe Contact : Carlo Lavalle Joint Research Centre of the EC Institute for Environment and Sustainability Land Management Unit Ph: **39 0332 785231; Fax: **39 0332 789085 E-mail :

2 Institutional Framework Court of Auditors Economic and Social Committee Committee of the Regions Council of Ministers European Parliament European Commission Court of Justice IND. TRADEINFOR.RESEAR CH JRC ENVI.AGRIEUROSTATREGIO Institute for Environment and Sustainability Institute for Environment and Sustainability Commissioner of Research EI IPSC IRMM ITU IAM IPTS IHCP

3 Summary of Activities MOLAND : Monitoring land cover/use dynamics for sustainable urban and regional development NATURAL HAZARD : Protection of the environment and the citizens against floods (LISFLOOD) and forest fires ESDI : European Spatial Data Infrastructure Agri-environmental Indicators – Landscape characterisation

4 MOLAND (Monitoring Land use/cover Dynamics) Towards Sustainable Urban and Regional Development Contact : Carlo Lavalle Joint Research Centre of the EC Institute for Environment and Sustainability Land Management Unit Ph: **39 0332 785231; Fax: **39 0332 789085 E-mail : Web :

5 Aim: Provide a methodology to assess, monitor and forecast the (sustainable) development of urban and regional environments at EU level Specific applications: Assessment of sustainable urban and regional development: Definition and computation of territorially-based indicators to allow integrated approaches Development of scenarios for long-term strategies of sustainable development Evaluate and compare alternative scenarios of spatial planning (land-use) and policy Determine the critical factors in the input spatial plans and policies Assessment and evaluation of policies with territorial impact: Application of the methodology for impact assessment of Regional Development interventions (SF, Cohesion Funds, CI) Introduction of Strategic Environmental Assessment concepts and tools in urban / regional planning Complementing the ESPON Research Programme Networking with local/regional/national authorities MOLAND: Towards sustainable urban and regional development

6 MOLAND : Study Areas in Europe

7 MOLAND : The Methodology Three inter-linked components: 1.Database preparation (CHANGE): - Measure past and present land use evolution in selected areas (urban, region, corridor,…) The reference (current) land use database is derived typically for 1998-2000. The historical database is computed with data from time windows in mid 50, end of 60, and 80 (only 2 dates for larger areas). Statistics and socio-economic datasets are merged into the GIS 2.Development of indicators (UNDERSTAND): Identification and computation of territorial and sustainable development indicators to provide a synthetic assessment of urban and regional landscapes. Static and dynamic environmental indicators comparable across Europe 3.Development of scenarios (FORECAST): related to urban evolution and assess sustainability of regions for forecasting future land use development and its impact on environment, under alternative spatial planning and policy scenarios develop scenarios of growth to formulate and evaluate long term strategy for sustainable development.

8 Integrated territorial indicators Statistics and trends Scenarios of future evolutions 2010 MOLAND : The methodology UNDERSTANDFORECAST Statistical data (demography, transport, socio-economic, etc.) 1948 1997 1981 1960 Land use evolution CHANGE

9 MOLAND – UNDERSTAND: Indicators for urban and regional development Land use indicators Urban sprawl Soil Sealing Fragmentation indices Urban/Regional development integrated indicators European Common Indicators Strategic Environmental Assessment of TEN/T

10 Moland – Examples of indicators Potential noise pollution (Munich) Green edge (Dublin) Access to green areas (Copenhagen) Habitat suitability (Dublin) (Trans-border Alpine site) Impact of transport corridor Urban sprawlLand use transformationCommuters vs land use (Dresden) Road network density Comparative analysis 19481948 19971997 19811981 19601960 (Grenoble) Urban Growth Population Growth and location Industr./Comm growth

11 Towards an urban atlas Assessment of spatial data on 25 European cities and urban areas. Environmental Issue Report No. 30 Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg. ISBN 92-9167-470-2. 131 pp. Joint publication of European Environment Agency and European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre. Available on-line at: or: Publication of first results

12 MOLAND – FORECAST - Method Land use (2025) Economic Activities Employment Housing demand Inter-regional migration Transport flows Land use demand Spatial planning and policy recommendations and guidelines

13 MOLAND – Next Steps Support to the definition of the Urban Thematic Strategy Chair of the Working Group on Sustainable Urban Management Creation of a network of cities/regions Development of scenarios of urban growth at EU dimension To validate EU policies ( territorial diversity) Formalise the methodology in the regional policy frame Impact evaluation of Structural Programmes (ERDF, Cohesion, CI,…) Pilot project in Northern Ireland/Ireland ESPON -> Moland in the Work Programme SEA concepts in regional planning Integrated modeling for concepts such as Peripherality/accessibility/… An EU artificial layer from CORINE 2000 ( at scale 1:25 000) (proposal) Concept of dynamic indicators City region (carrying capacity and functional area)

14 NATURAL HAZARD Contacts: (natural hazards project leader) (flood & water activities) (forest fires)

15 Natural Hazards Forest Fires: Processing chain to develop forest fire risk indices Structural Risk index Dynamic index: vegetation status, meteorological observations Advanced fire risk index based on the integration of all indices Processing chain for burnt area mapping and fire damage assessment Floods: Flood simulation modelling system for impact assessment Processing chain for flood extend mapping and damage assessment Flood risk maps Pre-operational system for Flood-watch European Flood Forecasting System

16 FLOOD - Main Activities Development of LISFLOOD modelling system ðlarge catchments: Oder, Meuse (1km grid) ðsmall catchments: Oder-subc, Meuse-subc, Toce (100m grid) ðEurope(5km grid) Simulation of land-use scenario on flood and water balance ðFlood prevention scenario case-studies Oder (IKSO / Oder-LISFLOOD; OderRegio / INTERREG) Meuse (Meuse Water Authority) Elbe & Danube (foreseen for 2003/2004) Other European Transnational basins (foreseen for 2005-2006) European Flood Forecasting System ðFlood pre-warning and flood risk ðFlood extent and damage forecasting ðRealtime tests already done: Oder (2001), Elbe & Danube (2002) Contribution to Catchment Information System

17 The LISFLOOD modelling system LISFLOOD-WBWater balance model LISFLOOD-FSFlood simulation model LISFLOOD-FFFlood forecasting model LISFLOOD-FPFlood Inundation model Catchment-scale Floodplain-scale

18 LISFLOOD outputs Water Source Areas Evapotranspiration Soil moisture storage Capacity Discharge Evapotranspiration – time series

19 EUROPEAN FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM (EFFS) 10 day weather forecasts: rainfalltemperature + LISFLOOD MODEL Flood forecasts for all major rivers: Example of a warning report 10-day forecast Meuse: 20-30 January 1995 with uncertainty range discharge forecast

20 European Forest Fire Risk Forecasting System (EFFRFS)

21 Structural Risk Vegetation Stress Risk Meteorological Risk Fire Potential Index FIRE POTENTIAL INDEX


23 European Forest Fire Information System EFFIS Cartography Tables Statistics Fire Risk Burnt Areas Regeneration Risk zoning Biomass Fire Risk CO2 emiss. Member States EC EP Modules Products: Customer and user:

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