1. Co-benefits of Integrated Approach to Air Quality Management and Climate Change Mitigation Role of Integrated Assessment Methods in SEA
Dr. Vladislav Bizek
Senior Consultant – Strategic Studies
Technology Center of the Czech Academy of Sciences
Rozvojová 135, Praha 6, Czech Republic

2. Background-Introduction
Climate Change – major environmental problem worldwide
GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases
Air Pollution – serious environmental problem in majority of countries:
Health impact (PM, ozone = VOC + NOX)
Ecosystem impact (ozone)
Acidification (SO2, NOX, NH3)
Eutrophication (NOX , NH3)
Separate Treatment in Environmental Policies

3. Czech Republic – Air Pollution – example
PM exceedance 2007

4. Czech Republic – GHGs - example
Per capita 2006 emissions of CO2

5. Background – Physico-chemical Interactions
Ozone – greenhouse gas (warming), direct effect on human health and ecosystems, indirect effect on the uptake of CO2 by vegetation,
Methane – greenhouse gas and precursor of ozone,
Black Carbon – human health effects and positive radiative forcing (warming),
Sulphur dioxide – acidification, precursor of secondary PM, negative radiative forcing (cooling),
Total aerosols – negative radiative forcing (coolling) and health effects, ….
Very complex processes – many uncertainties

6. GHGs and Air Pollutants - Radiative forcing
Comparison

7. Background – driving forces
Emissions of GHGs: energy (combustion of fossil fuels), transport (combustion of fossil fuels), agriculture
Emissions of air pollutants : energy (combustion of any fuel), transport (combustion of any fuel), agriculture, industry (solvent use)
High overlap of driving forces…
Integrated approach is reasonable

8. Background – Policy response
win-win solutions: synergies (energy savings, energy efficiency, certain renewables, ….)
win-lose solutions: trade offs (lack of coordination of measures, switch from petrol vehicles to diesel, inpropper combustion of biomass, …)
Integrated assessment of policies is crucial !

9. Background - Conclusion
-strong and complex interaction among air pollutants and greenhouse gases
high overlap of diriving forces (sources of emissions)
two types of policy response (synergies versus trade-offs)
crucial role of integrated assessment

10. Integrated assessment - Introduction
Two major initiatives:
Integrated Assessment Models (IIASA under the support of the European Commission)
Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) Program (US EPA)
Co-benefit/Co-control Approach (China)

11. Integrated model: EC4MACS / GAINS
EC4MACS – European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies (
GAINS – the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (

12. EC4MACS – Structure of the Integrated Model

13. Model GAINS – Description in DPSIR Format
Driving forces (energy, transport, industry, agriculture) Pressure (emissions – PM, SO2, NOX, VOC, NH3, CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases) State (dispersion of primary pollutants, creation of secondary pollutants) Impact (health impact of PM and ozone, acidification, eutrophication) Response (cost optimization, scenario assessment)

14. Model GAINS – example 1 – loss in life expectancy due to PM (months) 2000–2020 (optimized scenario)

15. Macedonia – Emissions 2020 (scenario E+C Package, current legislation)
Model GAINS – Example 2
Macedonia – Emissions 2020
(scenario E+C Package, current legislation)
CO2
CH4
PM10
SO2
NOX Mt kt
11.47
74.96
14.80
72.07
43.48

16. Model GAINS – Example 3

17. Model GAINS – Example 4

18. Model GAINS – Example 5

19. Model GAINS - Application
Covers all Europe - Minimal scope – country level
In Southern Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia
Calculates (for pre-defined scenarios):
Emissions: PM (TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 , SO2, NOX, VOC, NH3, CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases, total GHGs
Impacts (life expectancy, damage to vegetation, eutrophication, acidification)
Costs (total for scenario, per pollutants)

20. Model GAINS – how to use it?
Website:
Free registration possible to become „viewer“, then:
Select country
Select scenario
Calculate (emissions, impacts, costs)
Downloads only available (special rights necessary for uploads)

21. Integrated Assessment Tools at Local Level
Model CAPS-Clean Air and Climate Protection Software
Enables:
- Calculation of emission inventories and emission projections of air pollutants and GHGs
Assessment of efficiency of measures
Development of strategies and action plans
Information at:

22. Thanks for your attention !