1. Prospective Immigration to Israel Through 2030: Methodological Issues and Challenges Prospective Immigration to Israel Through 2030: Methodological Issues and Challenges Nitzan Peri and Sofia Phren Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, April 28-30, 2010

2. 2 Objectives  To estimate the number of immigrants expected to arrive in Israel during the next two decades. Identifying sources and motivations to immigrate to Israel. Defining difficulties in projecting immigration to Israel. Describing the implications of immigration on the Israeli population.

3. 3 The Immigration to Israel  The majority of immigrants arriving in Israel are Jewish, also arriving are their non-Jewish family relatives, who immigrate under the Law of Return (1950).  The immigration to Israel also includes: Immigrating citizens – A person, born to an Israeli citizen during his/her stay abroad, who enters Israel with an intention to settle. Family reunification – A person who receives permanent resident status in Israel under the Law of Entry (1952). In most cases these are non-Jewish spouses or first kin of citizens or permanent residents of Israel.  Not included: foreign workers, students and refugees.

4. 4 Immigrants * by Year of Immigration and Last Continent of Residence, 1948-2008

5. 5 The Share of Net Migration of the Total Population Growth 1948-2008

6. 6 Determinants of Immigration to Israel  A large share of the Jewish immigration to Israel was dominated by “push” factors, such as national and religious persecutions and economic crises.  “Pull” factors, such as religious and Zionistic ideology have also played an important role, especially among immigrants from Western Europe and North America.  In some cases, immigration is dependant on political factors, which are particularly hard to predict – For example the immigration of nearly one million people from the former Soviet Union in the 1990s.

7. 7 Actual and Projected Population of Israel, 1985-2005

8. 8 Main Sources of Immigration (2004-2008)

9. 9 Building Assumptions  The assumptions for the immigration projection were based on recent trends of immigration to Israel and estimates of the Jewish population outside Israel, which constitutes the main source of immigration to Israel.  Three different scenarios (high, medium and low) are specified for each major source of immigration.  The total prospective immigration to Israel is the sum of the high, medium and low scenarios of each source.  The projections are sub-divided into five years periods from 2006 through 2030.

10. 10 Prospective Immigration to Israel 2006-2030 Source of Immigration Projections Alternatives2006-2010 First Period 2011-20152016-20202021-20252026-2030 Last Period 2006-2030 Total Total Immigration High Medium Low 129,000 125,000 108,500 93,000 122,000 100,500 83,000 123,000 94,500 74,000 124,000 89,500 65,000 623,000 522,000 444,000 Former Soviet Union High Medium Low 33,000 30,000 26,000 21,000 27,000 20,000 15,000 24,000 15,000 10,000 21,000 10,000 5,000 135,000 104,000 84,000 United States and France High Medium Low 21,000 23,000 18,000 16,000 25,000 18,000 15,000 27,000 18,000 14,000 29,000 18,000 13,000 125,000 93,000 79,000 Ethiopia High Medium Low 15,000 5,000 3,000 - 1,000 - 1,000 - 1,000 - 23,000 19,000 15,000 Argentina High Medium Low 1,000 6,000 3,500 1,000 6,000 3,500 1,000 6,000 3,500 1,000 6,000 3,500 1,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 Other Countries High Medium Low 16,000 14,000 16,000 12,000 16,000 10,000 16,000 8,000 80,000 60,000 Immigrating Citizens High Medium Low 18,000 19,000 18,000 20,000 18,000 21,000 18,000 22,000 18,000 100,000 90,000 Family Reunification High Medium Low 25,000 26,000 24,000 23,000 27,000 24,000 22,000 28,000 24,000 21,000 29,000 24,000 20,000 135,000 121,000 111,000

11. 11 Total Immigration to Israel, 1981-2030

12. 12 Conclusions and Future Implications  The number of immigrants arriving in Israel will continue to decrease in the coming decades, both in absolute terms and in relation to the total population of Israel.  The share of net migration of total population growth will be reduced to the low levels that were recorded in the 1980s (only 6%).  Political and social factors might cause an unexpected change in the current trend, however, an event of mass immigration to Israel is not likely to repeat itself.