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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Futures.

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Presentation on theme: "Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Futures."— Presentation transcript:

1 Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Futures for Universities Attila Havas Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences

2 Futures for Universities Outline 1) Introduction 2) The role of universities in the knowledge production and research system 3) Recent key trends 4) Driving forces for change and future trends 5) Visions (future states) for universities 5.1) Visions for the EU and ERIA 5.2) Visions for universities 6) Policy conclusions

3 Futures for Universities 1) Introduction No thorough, exhaustive academic treatment of the current situation of universities...... a prospective analysis (not foresight) Diversity of universities cannot be covered teaching, research, and other activities research agenda: regl, natl, EU or global issues teaching: for what labour markets governance structures, organisation, mgmt practices performance (economic efficiency, teaching and research excellence – whatever metrics are used) EU vs. Triad intra-EU (across member states) intra-country

4 Futures for Universities 1) Introduction A strategy process should be participatory Vision-building: bring together stakeholders with diverse background accumulated knowledge and experience distinct viewpoints and approaches to enrich the discussion and analysis Shared visions consensus joint actions & reduced uncertainty Ambition: spark lively dialogues with the Futures developed in this paper Universities in broader socio-economic systems Top-down approach: EU, ERIA, NIS, universities Time horizon: 2020 (not carved in stone!)

5 Futures for Universities 2) The role of universities... The importance of other players in the RTDI systems firms, public labs, users, patient groups, other NGOs The changing roles of universities elite vs. mass education teaching & research vs. teaching only (mainly) and research universities [more at the staff level: teaching only vs. research only positions] The Humboldtian model is becoming an exception (at the post-graduate level) The third role of universities (is it new at all?)

6 Futures for Universities 2) The role of universities... A new rationale for funding basic science by public money? a)the very notion of basic science is questionable b)higher education and basic science are not that closely interconnected nowadays as they used to be given the changing nature of higher education, and the crucial role played by other research actors

7 Futures for Universities 3) Recent key trends... Changing roles/ responsibilities of universities: new roles emerge, and the balance of various roles is changing teaching; academic research; consultancy for, and problem-solving for firms and other players (NGOs, policy-makers); other joint RTDI projects with businesses An increasing share of the age group of 18-29 years old is registered for university courses financial, infrastructural requirements; number and/or workload of teachers; quality of education/ degrees (prestige); job-seekers aspirations, ambitions The Bologna Process

8 Futures for Universities 4) Driving forces for change and future trends Quest for excellence in research improving academic recognition and raising funds Technological changes more sophisticated more expensive equipment Demographic changes Tensions in government budgets Quest for cost-efficiency of research New societal demands, changing values New methods, approaches, norms to organise, manage, validate, legitimate and evaluate HE/R Ten trends are derived from these driving forces

9 Futures for Universities 5) Visions for universities Visions vs. fully-fledged or path scenarios No consideration of the degree of probability of specific visions Underlying assumptions A) Policies can modify the existing driving forces for change, and can trigger changes themselves B) Universities cannot operate fully isolated from their socio-economic environment ( EU polices: Lisbon Process, ERIA) C) Interrelations between competitiveness and cohesion: (i) as a zero-sum game (ii) as mutually reinforcing processes the latter view is taken here

10 Futures for Universities 5) Visions for universities Underlying assumptions (contd) D) Cohesion is an issue for (a) large, advance member states, (b) for the classic cohesion countries, and (c) for the 10 new member states. Thus, it is a major political and policy issue. The forthcoming enlargement(s) would add more countries and regions to this list. E) Promoting RTDI efforts in cohesion regions via joint research projects (funded e.g. by RTD FP) does not mean that scientific excellence is compromised. (Sharp [1998]) F) A pronounced policy emphasis on cohesion does – and should – not preclude competition among universities

11 Futures for Universities 5.1.1) Visions for the EU Internal strategy EU vs. Triad Cohesion (societal issues) Competitiveness (multi-speed EU) Successful EU A) Double success B) Successful multi-speed EU Laggard EU C1) Shaky cohesion C2) Double failure D) Failed multi- speed EU

12 Futures for Universities 5.1.2) Visions for the ERIA (two EU visions) ERIAEU A) EU B) Rationale for EU RTDI policies Co-ordination of policies Location of major HE/R centres Research agenda Mobility of researchers, U staff and students Integration of RTDI activities Research infrastructure Innovation systems, co-op among key players RTDI services (inf, consultancy, incubation...) Financial infrastructure Policy-preparation methods, practices

13 Futures for Universities 5.2) Visions for universities Trends, driving forces Un- changed U Radically refd U New players The role/ mission of U Mobility of U staff, students Integration of RTDI activities Courses/ degrees The Bologna process Competition for talents Multi-disciplinary training Multi-disciplinary research Separate tables for A) Double success, and B) Successful multi-speed EU

14 Futures for Universities 5.2) Visions for universities Generic trends [regardless of EU A); B)] Un- changed U Radically refd U New players Demographic trends Legitimisation, validation of knowledge Methods, approaches, norms to organise and manage U Ever more expensive physical infrastructure (edu, research) The impacts of new technologies on HE

15 Futures for Universities 6) Policy conclusions* 1.Support Foresight (prospective) activities of universities (methods, funds, dialogues, etc.) 2.Abolish national borders for researchers and for students 3.Strengthen the autonomy of universities 4.Promote further research regarding the functional division of labour amongst different research actors * No 2-4) are produced collectively by the HLEG members


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