1. Tsvyatko Velikov DG REGIO Bulgaria Tsvyatko.Velikov@ec.europa.eu
N+3 as a Tool for Strategic Fund Management LOTHAR - the way it works
Tsvyatko Velikov
DG REGIO Bulgaria

2. Key principles to set up the system
A uniform approach across OPs
Using same method for all (with a view to aggregate data)
Forecast at the lowest meaningful level (considering time and efficiency)
Forecast as much as possible
Forecast as far as possible and using your best guess
Freeze the forecast and establish baseline monitoring

3. The key principles in a diagram

4. The elements of LOTHAR Flash sheets for the state of play
N+3 sheets for the forecast

5. Flash sheets 3 core indicators: contracting, payment, certification
Sub-indicators for each of the core indicators
Sub-indicators are different for calls and for major projects
30 columns and 70 rows – printable in A3

6. An overview of the Flash sheet
OP structure
Calls specification
budget, EU funds, intervention rate
Project selection projects received
/selected/total budget
Contracts performance projects contracted, total budget, forecast
Payments performance
Total paid, EU share,
forecast
Certification performance
Total certified, EU share,
Operation 1 -n
Call 1-n
Major project 1-n
Works Contract 1-n

7. N+3 Sheets
The Commitment profile and the N+3 profile are based on the total OP allocations. These targets are imposed.
The contracting, payment and certification forecast are established by e.g. the MA
Indicators measure the real contracting, payment and certification performance
Charts and 120 excel sheets for each OP and priority axes

8. An overview of an OP N+3 sheet
Commitment
profile
N+3/2 profile
Contracts
forecast and performance
Payments
Certification
QI 2007
QII 2007 ….
IV/2015

9. Analysis of the flash sheet
a case study

10. The analysis of the Flash Sheet - contracting
The grid of the Flash Sheet follows the project cycle, both for calls and projects. The analysis allows to establish:
The pipeline for calls (could also be projects):
When are the next calls; what are the deadlines for submission of projects?
The pipeline for project contracting
When does project selection start?+ How many proposals? How complex is evaluation? How complex is the negotiation of contracts? How long does it take to transform some project proposals into contracts? (i.e. award of financing)

11. The analysis of the Flash Sheet – payment and certification
The pipeline for payments
What are the provisions for advance payments, re-imbursements and final payments
The pipeline for certification
How long does it take to process a bill, from submission by Beneficiary to submission of certifications of expenditure to the European Commission

12. Call deadline: 31 January 2009
Forecasting An example: 1 January 2009 forecast 10 million € call for proposals
Call deadline: 31 January 2009
500 projects anticipated (jungle drums) = more than expected. Only 100 can be financed
Project selection in two phases: technical + quality. Result only when all projects evaluated. Originally expected 2 month, now 3 month, i.e. 30 April
Contract negotiation easy, while standardised contract + no major eligibility question. Contracts can be signed gradually: 25 contracts per week, 100 contracts signed 31 May

13. Forecasting An example: 1 January 2009 forecast 10 million € call for proposals
No certifiable advance payments. Project selection based on mature documents (e.g. building permits; tender documents). Tendering needed, but small scale:
Average 3 months from award of contract to tender result
first bills expected from Beneficiaries 5 months after contracting
First bills available for estimated 20% of project value, for estimated 25% of all projects having reached this stage (the rest are delayed) by 31 October
Expected expenditure 31 October = 5 million €
Expected certification submission 3 months later = 31 January 2010