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Tsvyatko Velikov DG REGIO Bulgaria N+3 as a Tool for Strategic Fund Management LOTHAR - the way it works.

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Presentation on theme: "Tsvyatko Velikov DG REGIO Bulgaria N+3 as a Tool for Strategic Fund Management LOTHAR - the way it works."— Presentation transcript:

1 Tsvyatko Velikov DG REGIO Bulgaria N+3 as a Tool for Strategic Fund Management LOTHAR - the way it works

2 Key principles to set up the system A uniform approach across OPs A uniform approach across OPs Using same method for all (with a view to aggregate data) Using same method for all (with a view to aggregate data) Forecast at the lowest meaningful level (considering time and efficiency) Forecast at the lowest meaningful level (considering time and efficiency) Forecast as much as possible Forecast as much as possible Forecast as far as possible and using your best guess Forecast as far as possible and using your best guess Freeze the forecast and establish baseline monitoring Freeze the forecast and establish baseline monitoring

3 The key principles in a diagram OP level Priority axis 1 Operation 1 Call 1/ Major project 1 Funds Contracted Funds paid to beneficiaries Funds certified to the Commission Call 2/Major project 2... Call 3/Major project 3... Operation 2.. Operation N Priority axis 2..Priority axis N

4 The elements of LOTHAR Flash sheets for the state of play Flash sheets for the state of play N+3 sheets for the forecast N+3 sheets for the forecast

5 Flash sheets 3 core indicators: contracting, payment, certification 3 core indicators: contracting, payment, certification Sub-indicators for each of the core indicators Sub-indicators for each of the core indicators Sub-indicators are different for calls and for major projects Sub-indicators are different for calls and for major projects 30 columns and 70 rows – printable in A3 30 columns and 70 rows – printable in A3

6 An overview of the Flash sheet OP structu re Calls specificati on budget, EU funds, interventio n rate Project selection projects received /selected/to tal budget Contracts performan ce projects contracted, total budget, forecast Payments performan ce Total paid, EU share, forecast Certificati on performan ce Total certified, EU share, forecast Operation 1 -n Call 1-n Major project 1- n Works Contract 1-n

7 N+3 Sheets The Commitment profile and the N+3 profile are based on the total OP allocations. These targets are imposed. The Commitment profile and the N+3 profile are based on the total OP allocations. These targets are imposed. The contracting, payment and certification forecast are established by e.g. the MA The contracting, payment and certification forecast are established by e.g. the MA Indicators measure the real contracting, payment and certification performance Indicators measure the real contracting, payment and certification performance Charts and 120 excel sheets for each OP and priority axes Charts and 120 excel sheets for each OP and priority axes

8 An overview of an OP N+3 sheet Commitmentprofile N+3/2 profile Contracts forecast and performance Payments Certification forecast and performance forecast and performance QI 2007 QII 2007 …. IV/2015

9 Analysis of the flash sheet a case study a case study

10 The analysis of the Flash Sheet - contracting The grid of the Flash Sheet follows the project cycle, both for calls and projects. The analysis allows to establish: The pipeline for calls (could also be projects): The pipeline for calls (could also be projects): When are the next calls; what are the deadlines for submission of projects? When are the next calls; what are the deadlines for submission of projects? The pipeline for project contracting The pipeline for project contracting When does project selection start?+ How many proposals? How complex is evaluation? How complex is the negotiation of contracts? How long does it take to transform some project proposals into contracts? (i.e. award of financing) When does project selection start?+ How many proposals? How complex is evaluation? How complex is the negotiation of contracts? How long does it take to transform some project proposals into contracts? (i.e. award of financing)

11 The analysis of the Flash Sheet – payment and certification The pipeline for payments The pipeline for payments What are the provisions for advance payments, re-imbursements and final payments What are the provisions for advance payments, re-imbursements and final payments The pipeline for certification The pipeline for certification How long does it take to process a bill, from submission by Beneficiary to submission of certifications of expenditure to the European Commission How long does it take to process a bill, from submission by Beneficiary to submission of certifications of expenditure to the European Commission

12 Forecasting An example: 1 January 2009 forecast 10 million call for proposals Call deadline: 31 January 2009 Call deadline: 31 January projects anticipated (jungle drums) = more than expected. Only 100 can be financed 500 projects anticipated (jungle drums) = more than expected. Only 100 can be financed Project selection in two phases: technical + quality. Result only when all projects evaluated. Originally expected 2 month, now 3 month, i.e. 30 April Project selection in two phases: technical + quality. Result only when all projects evaluated. Originally expected 2 month, now 3 month, i.e. 30 April Contract negotiation easy, while standardised contract + no major eligibility question. Contracts can be signed gradually: 25 contracts per week, 100 contracts signed 31 May Contract negotiation easy, while standardised contract + no major eligibility question. Contracts can be signed gradually: 25 contracts per week, 100 contracts signed 31 May

13 Forecasting An example: 1 January 2009 forecast 10 million call for proposals No certifiable advance payments. Project selection based on mature documents (e.g. building permits; tender documents). Tendering needed, but small scale: No certifiable advance payments. Project selection based on mature documents (e.g. building permits; tender documents). Tendering needed, but small scale: Average 3 months from award of contract to tender result Average 3 months from award of contract to tender result first bills expected from Beneficiaries 5 months after contracting first bills expected from Beneficiaries 5 months after contracting First bills available for estimated 20% of project value, for estimated 25% of all projects having reached this stage (the rest are delayed) by 31 October First bills available for estimated 20% of project value, for estimated 25% of all projects having reached this stage (the rest are delayed) by 31 October Expected expenditure 31 October = 5 million Expected expenditure 31 October = 5 million Expected certification submission 3 months later = 31 January 2010 Expected certification submission 3 months later = 31 January 2010


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