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© European Communities, 2011 The last 2 to 3 years the EC has funded a serie of blue sky projects on foresight. A part of these projects were devoted to the improvement of our methodological knowledge around scanning. These projects delivered not only evaluations of new methods to obtain and process scan data but also new conceptual thinking that may bridge the gap between scanning activities and policymaking. In this session we will give an overview of the conceptual thinking that leads to some recommendations concerning horizon scanning practice. An important aspects is the way in which results of scanning can compete with the stream of information and ideas that arrive in the decision makers brains and debates Main recommendations In scanning activities there are in principle two ways to obtain issue description and related signals. You can collect existing ideas/descriptions of issues and wild cards by scanning of sources, like internet and libraries and you can evoke people to create them. In the first approach the sources and the selected signals are chosen by the scanners. To limit the effect of biases by the scanners it is necessary to develop criteria on forehand and to work with a multidisciplinary scanning team and to validate results in broad assembled workshops. In the second way the select or a-select chosen respondents choose the sources and transfers their signals which may be partly based on the same sources as where the scanner search. NOTES 1.Poster Title Replace the mock-up text of the poster title (Joint Research Centre) with the text of your own title. Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Keep the flush-right justification. Set it in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, in Arial, Helvetica or Verdana – plain or bold. Keep the original font body size (102 pt or, preferably,120 pt) and the title on a single line whenever possible. Reduce the body size and/or set the title on more than one line only if unavoidable. 2.Poster Subtitle Replace the mock-up text of the poster subtitle (Place Your Poster Subtitle Here) with the text of your own subtitle. Keep the original font colour (black). Keep the flush-right justification. Set it in MetaPlusBook-Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, in Arial, Helvetica or Verdana. Keep the original font body size (72 pt) and the subtitle on a single line whenever possible. Reduce the body size and/or set the subtitle on more than one line only if unavoidable. If your poster does not have a main subtitle, delete the subtitle mock-up text or its text-box altogether. 3.Poster Main Text and Illustrations Replace the mock-up text of the poster with your own text. Keep it within the boundaries of the two main-text boxes provided. Keep the original font colour (black). Should you need a second colour within your text, use the same one of the poster title (100c 80m 0y 0k). Keep the flush-left justification. Set the main text in MetaPlusBook-Roman and the section headings in MetaPlusBold-Roman, if you own the typefaces. Otherwise, the main text in Arial, Helvetica or Verdana, and the section headings in their respective bold weights. Adjust the font body size and leading to the needs of your own text, depending on its overall length, for optimal display and legibility. Should you need a second level of text, set it in a smaller body size than that of your main text (and, in the case of photo captions, in italics, too). Place your illustrations (pictures, graphs, etc.) within the boundaries of the two main-text boxes. Adjust your text-flow as needed. 4.Contact Box Replace the mock-up contents of the contact box with your own data. Keep the contact box in place if possible. Place it elsewhere only if unavoidable for layout reasons, but in that case try, at least, to align it with some main element of the poster. 5.Additional Logos Should you need to display additional logos (e.g., of partner organizations or universities), reduce or enlarge them to a height within those of the JRC logo and the Directorate or Institute logo. Place any additional logos on the bottom of the poster, evenly spaced between the JRC and (if there is one) the Directorate or Institute logo, and vertically centred with them INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE To limit the effect of biases or advocacy in the second approach, it is important to develop criteria on forehand for the selection of respondents and of the signals. To validate results it is best to use both approaches independently and to compare results In the first approach the search usually delivers more full descriptions of emerging issues and potential wild cards which makes the approach suitable for issue centered scanning. In this approach it is important to identify the exact sources of the identified issues and wild cards and to analyze the interests as well as emotional aspects that are implied. The second approach usually delivers less full descriptions. Which makes the approach more suitable for exploratory scanning. This approach requires additional attention for clustering and deeper analysis of data In scanning it is important to distinguish between natural and human caused issues and wild cards, since they require not only different methodological approaches but also other policy answers. Overstressing the hard evidence may distort the scan view on those issues or wild cards that are deliberately human caused. Because of the effect that interests, path dependencies, emotions and connections to the present situation may be more important indicators for the emerging or occurrence of human caused issues and wild cards than the factual information on its contents To improve the scanning of emerging issues and potential wild cards for governance, more research is needed to answer the question : -What constitutes the strength of the deliberately human caused issues and wild cards ? For this we need more historical analysis of proven strong issues and past wild cards. Discourse analytic work, on implicit and explicit future reference used in political debate and decision making and its potential relation to foresight/horizon scanning Sociological and mass psychological knowledge on the main question, how future narratives influence public opinion and decision makers? (crowd influencing knowledge) Wild cards as future shakers and shapers Contact Victor van Rij Ministry of education, culture and Science, Netherlands Tel
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