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National Statistics Quality Review on International Migration Estimates Update on taking forward the recommendations of the review Emma Wright & Giles.

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Presentation on theme: "National Statistics Quality Review on International Migration Estimates Update on taking forward the recommendations of the review Emma Wright & Giles."— Presentation transcript:

1 National Statistics Quality Review on International Migration Estimates Update on taking forward the recommendations of the review Emma Wright & Giles Horsfield Population and Demography Division Office for National Statistics

2 Overview ●Estimates of Total International Migration –Data Sources & Methodology –Trends ●National Statistics Quality Review –Recommendations ●Work and results to date ●Future plans & further information

3 Estimates of Total International Migration ●ONS produces estimates of Total International Migration (TIM) between the UK and the rest of the world: ●An international migrant is defined as a person who changes his or her country of usual residence for a period of at least a year ●Estimates of both inflows (immigration) and outflows (emigration)

4 Data Sources & Methodology ● International Passenger Survey (IPS) –Continuous voluntary sample survey covering principle air, sea & Channel Tunnel routes –based on intentions –does not cover all migration ● Estimates from IPS are adjusted for: –Switchers (those whose intentions change) –Flows between the UK & Irish Republic (Irish CSO) –Asylum seekers & their dependants (Home Office) ● TIM estimates have been produced since 1991 - earlier estimates were derived from the IPS only.

5 Trends in Total International Migration Thousands of migrants Net gain Net loss Net gain

6 National Statistics Quality Review ●National Statistics Quality Review on international migration, commissioned before 2001 Census results were released ●Joint ONS and HO review ●Review Board –representatives from ONS, HO, OGDs, academia ●Aim of the review “ to make recommendations for continuation of, and changes to, the current data, methods and outputs of UK international migration statistics ”

7 Review Recommendations ●Final Report published September 2003 ●Main recommendations –Development of better estimates of total migration flows –Use of existing survey and admin data sources for UK geographical distribution of migration –Development of survey and admin sources on persons subject to immigration control –Build need for data on international migration into new admin data sources ●Implementation Plan published January 2004

8 Work & results to date (1) International Passenger Survey: ●New questions introduced in Jan 2004 on: –intended versus actual length of stay –short-term versus long-term migrants ●Further questions piloted for 2005 –level of uncertainty on destination in the UK

9 Work & results to date (2) ●Comparison of IPS/TIM estimates with Census and Labour Force Survey (immigrants): –Census/LFS question on place of usual residence 1 year ago –National totals –Age/sex comparisons –Regional comparisons

10 International migration to the UK

11 Age distribution of in-migrants to England and Wales in the IPS and the 2001 Census: persons Year to April 2001

12 Proportion of UK migrant inflows by region Year to April/Spring 2001

13 London: proportion of total UK in-migration, 1994-2002 LFS year to Spring; IPS and TIM previous calendar years

14 Scotland: proportion of total UK in-migration, 1994-2002 LFS year to Spring; IPS and TIM previous calendar years

15 Work & results to date (3) ●Comparison of IPS/TIM estimates with NHS register sources (immigrants and emigrants): –persons registering (de-registering) with the NHS whose previous (next) place of usual residence is overseas –regional comparisons –potential for local authority breakdowns

16 International migration to/from England and Wales, 2002

17 Proportional England and Wales migrant inflows: TIM and IPS compared to NHSCR, 2002

18 Proportional England and Wales migrant outflows: TIM and IPS compared to NHSCR, 2002

19 Work & results to date (4) ●Comparison of IPS/TIM emigrant estimates with receiving country immigrant statistics: –Difficulty in making such comparisons is well documented –Comparisons will focus first on EU 15, Australia, New Zealand, USA, Canada, South Africa –So far, 13 of these 20 countries, have agreed to take part in the study

20 Work & results to date (5) ●Development of new data sources - requirements for migration statistics fed into: –2011 Census –Continuous Population Survey –Citizen’s Information Project

21 Home Office research ●Improved combining of IPS and HO data - investigation underway of coverage of groups subject to immigration control in IPS - asylum seekers, visitor switchers ●Comparison of statistics on persons subject to immigration control and landing card data with IPS data on non-EU immigrants ●Research into estimating unauthorised migrant stocks and flows ●Development of longitudinal survey of immigrants ●Feeding migration statistics requirements into development of enhanced arrival and departure recording systems and ID cards

22 Future Plans ●Research work on IPS - non-response, emigration filter shifts, new questions, etc ●Further work on use of LFS and NHSCR data to aid distribution of immigrants geographically ●Further comparisons of emigrant estimates with overseas immigrant estimates ●Investigation of administrative sources (e.g. DWP, DVLA) ●Research into methods for combining data sources (ONS Methods Group)

23 Further information ●Quality review report and Implementation Plan available on National Statistics website: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/methods_quality/ quality_review/population.asp ●Annual Reference Volume http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/ theme_population/MN_no_29_v3.pdf ●Any further queries: emma.wright@ons.gov.uk giles.horsfield@ons.gov.uk


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