1. Doing Business After a Major Bay Area Earthquake JEANNE PERKINS ABAG Earthquake Program Manager

2. What Are Natural HAZARDS?

3. Earthquake-Related Hazards l Ground Shaking l Fault Rupture l Liquefaction l Landslides l Tsunamis

4. Weather-Related Hazards l Flooding l Landslides l Wildfires l Drought

5. What Are the HAZARDS in MY Area?

13. Transportation Impacts

14. 2 PAST EARTHQUAKES l 142 road closures in Loma Prieta l 140 road closures in Northridge 18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES l 17 Bigger than these earthquakes l 0 Bigger than New Orleans

15. What Happens - M 7.9 on San Andreas Fault -- l 1,330 total closures l Problems along I-280 and Hwy. 101 in San Mateo Co. l San Francisco a mess l San Mateo and Marin county coasts isolated l Problems near Bay at OAK, SFO and SJC

16. What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault -- l 1,650 total closures l Most toll bridges not usable l Some problems in the Hwy. 101 and 37 corridors in Marin, SF and San Mateo counties l Entire East Bay isolated

17. Recovery Timeline

18. What Does This Mean? l There were only 142 road closures in Loma Prieta. l There were only 140 road closures in Northridge. l Our model for predicting the potential impacts of these closures should be Kobe, not either of these California earthquakes.

19. Utility System Impacts

20. Liquefaction - Results Selected Damage to Foundations Roads & Sidewalks Sand boils Pipeline Breaks

22. What Happened in the “Very High” Liquefaction Areas - Loma Prieta Quake l Water - 4-5 times more breaks l Natural Gas - 3 - 11 times more breaks l Roads - 1.3 times more surface, but 25 times more costly

23. Liquefaction Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire Hayward

24. Airport System Impacts

25. What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San Andreas Fault l SFO probably CLOSED l OAK probably CLOSED l SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit completed in 2003.

26. What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault l SFO probably disruption l OAK probably CLOSED l SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit completed in 2003.

27. HousingImpacts Housing Impacts

28. 2 PAST EARTHQUAKES l 16,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Loma Prieta Earthquake l 48,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Northridge Earthquake 18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES l 13 Bigger than Loma Prieta l 8 Bigger than Northridge l 0 Bigger than New Orleans

29. What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San Andreas Fault l 159,900 uninhabitable housing units l (300,000 – Katrina) l 359,000 people displaced l 105,700 peak shelter population

30. What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault l 155,700 uninhabitable housing units l 300,000 - Katrina l 356,600 people displaced l 110,300 peak shelter population

31. Single Family Homes 9% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

32. Mobile Homes 7% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

33. Multifamily Wood-Frame 66% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

34. Unreinforced Masonry 8% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

35. Other Non-Wood Multi-Family 10% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

36. Multifamily vs. Single-Family 84% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

37. The Nightmare Goes On and On...

39. Who Has the Nightmare?

40. What is the role of business after a disaster?

41. Where is ABAG’s Local Hazard Mitigation Plan information on the internet? http://quake.abag.ca.gov As well as “special” info at http://quake.abag.ca.gov/business

42. Save the Date – Thursday, April 20 – (Day 3 of the Mega- Conference)