Presentation on theme: "DROUGHT MONITORING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY"— Presentation transcript:
1 DROUGHT MONITORING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY International Workshop on Climate and Land DegradationLamgando Conference Hall, Impala Hotel,ARUSHA, United Republic of Tanzania, December 2006Bradwell J. GarangangaSADC DROUGHT MONITORING CENTREe.mail:Website:Lusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003
2 SADC Drought Monitoring Centre OBJECTIVESLusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003
3 Presentation Format Introduction History of the SADC DMC Role of the SADC DMCTools / ProductsClimate monitoringClimate PredictionAttachments/ Capacity buildingClimate Outlook Fora, briefChallenges & OpportunitiesPlanned activitiesSummary
5 INTRODUCTIONThe Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) is an institution of Southern African Development Community (SADC) comprising 14 member states with well over 220 million inhabitants.The SADC countries experience recurrent climatic extremes such as droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, which often result in negative impacts such as land degradationThe region is also susceptible to epidemiological diseases such as malaria and cholera that are influenced by climatic factors.Extreme climate variation impact negatively socio-economic development of the Member States.
7 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Established in 1989/90 together with now ICPAC by African Gvts with WMO as Executing Agency. Together responsible for 22 countries of Eastern and Southern AfricaCentral objective to have regional approaches in mitigating adverse climate impacts to socioeconomic developments.Initial funding from UNDPNext funding from the Belgian Government, with a condition that SADC gradually takes over the funding of DMC Harare.Since April 2002, core activities are funded by SADC.However, programme activities are still being funded by cooperating partners:WMO, USAID, NOAA and others.
8 ROLE OF THE SADC DMC1) OBJECTIVETo contribute to mitigation of adverse impacts of extreme climate variations on sustainable socioeconomic development.This is achieved through the monitoring of near real-time climatic trends and generating medium-range (10-14 days) and long-range climate outlook products on monthly and seasonal (3-6 months) timescales.These products are disseminated in timely manner to the communities of the sub-region principally through the NMHSs, regional organizations, and also directly through services to various users who include media agencies. Our products are readily available on our website: e.mail address is:
9 The provision of early warning for the formulation of appropriate strategies to combat the adverse effects of climate extremes affords greater opportunity to decision-makers for development of prudent plans for mitigating the negative impacts on sustainable socio-economic development.Since, establishment, the center has played an important and central role in providing the sub-region with weather and climate advisories and more importantly, timely early warning on drought, floods and other extreme climate events
11 2. OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES Developing and archiving of global, regional and national quality controlled climate databanksProviding of climate monitoring, prediction and application services,Conducting training and capacity building activities in the generation and application of climate productsOrganizing the climate and malaria outlook forums for the SADC region, andEnhancing the interactions with the user through regional users workshops and application pilot projects.
12 CLIMATE INFORMATION Climate variability Climate Change The basic driving mechanism of steady-state climate: solar radiation and the rotation of the earthThe circulation patterns of the atmosphere in southern AfricaImportant for application in socio-economic sectors: extremes in climate states often lead to the dislocation of socio-economic developments. Droughts/floods have wreaked havoc in the region from time to time.Climate ChangeThe impacts of industrialization on climate systemImportant for application in socio-economic sectors
13 EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION Southern African region socioeconomic development is influenced by climate variability.The El Niño/southern Oscillation phenomenon has impacts on the regionTrends in global climate change have implications in the region
15 Impacts of ENSO phases in SADC Droughts /FloodsUnprecedented crop failuresDecimation of livestockVirtual collapse of industries since both water shortage and hydropower failures are frequently likelyIncidences of epidemiological diseasesMass destruction of infrastructures: roads; bridges; houses, etcWidespread suffering with loss of livestock and crops
16 SADC DMC TOOLSThe SADC DMC uses several tools to realize its objective and they are listed below:A
17 30 Year Mean OND and JFM rainfall Lusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003
18 Composite El Nino SST mean (top); anomalies(bottom)
19 Composite La Nina SST mean (top); anomalies(bottom)
25 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS Significant rainfall deficits across the southern half of the SADC region .Countries mostly affected BY deficits were Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, southern half of Mozambique and South Africa .
26 October 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall Trend: Most area had little rainfall.Country with the highest rainfall over this period (>150mm): DRC October circulation feature(s): ITCZ to the north, middle level high-pressure dominating southern parts.
27 November 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall Trend: First dekad was quite dry. Northern half had some decent rains. Areas with the highest rainfall over this period(>150mm): Northern Malawi Seychelles & Southern Tanzania.Most of southern half experienced little rain.November circulation feature(s): Depression over Mozambique Channel and ITCZ active over the northern parts.
28 December 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall Trend: Most areas had widespread rainfall, the s’western sector had little rainfall. Countries with the highest rainfall over this period(>90mm): DRC, Seychelles, Zambia, Zimbabwe & Malawi. December circulation feature(s): Depressions over Mozambique Channel, ITCZ over the North and central part and middle level high-pressure system over the south/southwest.
29 OND TOTALSOverall, most of the SADC region experienced largely normal rains during the OND However, parts of the southern sections, the bulk of central South Africa, had well below-normal rainfall, less than 65%.Greater than 125 % was observed over Malawi, Northern Mozambique, northeastern coast of Tanzania.
30 Cumulative rains during OND 2004 for selected stations in the SADC Rainfall was well below normal from October to December for Bulawayo in Zimbabwe, Maun in Botswana, Queensland in South Africa.
31 Parts of Malawi and north Mozambique had rains picking up sharply in Dec 2004
32 Rainfall was well below normal from October to December in DRC & Tanzania also.
33 CLIMATE PREDICTION Prediction of future state of Atmosphere Understanding the physics of the atmosphereUsing computer models (high power)Important for application in socio-economic sectorsBasic approachesAnalogue, Statistical and Dynamical
34 Prediction What do we need to know to make a good prediction? the current state (initial conditions)how the current state will evolve
35 Uncertainty in How the Current State will Evolve El Niño Normal La NiñaBoreal winterBoreal spring
36 Uncertainty in How the Current State will Evolve Sea surface temperatures in the global oceans (but primarily in the tropics) can affect the overlying atmosphere by warming or cooling the air and affecting the amount of atmospheric moisture. Since these sea temperatures change fairly slowly, and can themselves be predicted, an influence on the atmosphere can be anticipated up to a few months in advance.
37 Communicating Uncertainty Uncertainty is indicated by the probability that rainfall will be within a specified range. Uncertainty is high when the probability is high and the range is narrow.
38 HOMOGENOUS REGIONS FOR OND OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA
39 Graph of Observed and Forecasted for the region 1 DJF SEASON
42 MAP1: Probabilities of Wet DJF 2005/06 Rainfall For Malaria OutlookREGIONS I,VII & IX HAS HIGH %GE OF EXCEEDING 75%NTILEMAP1: Probabilities of Wet
43 DJF 2005/06 Rainfall Malaria Outlook MAP2: Probabilities of Dry REGIONS II-VI & VIII HAVE HIGH PROB OF DRY INCIDENCESMAP2: Probabilities of Dry
44 OND 2005 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs OUTLOOK Lusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003
45 OND 2005 VERIFICATIONLusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003
46 JFM 2006 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs OUTLOOK Lusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003
47 JFM 2006 OUTLOOK VERIFICATION Lusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003
48 ATTACHMENT PROGRAMMEThe DMC has over the years hosted many scientists from mostly the subregion. It has also facilitated secondment of scientists to other global centres. Typically the scientists are hosted for a period of six months at a time at the DMC.Training SADC National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' (NMHSs) staff on attachment at the DMC through guidance in conducting research in climate monitoring and prediction techniques.After undergoing the training, scientists in prediction and producing climate bulletins, they return to their countries to share their new skills with other colleagues.
49 3. CAPACITY BUILDINGIn addition to training SADC (NMHSs) staff on attachment DMC with assistance from other scientists, develop climate monitoring and prediction techniques for developing Southern Africa Region Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) products.Providing training to SADC NMHSs staff through capacity 1-2 week building workshops and SARCOF.Strengthening links with users from sectors such as health, food security (early warning systems), water resources management, media, tourism industry, etc.
50 The aim of the pre-SARCOF capacity building workshops is to enhance the capacity of the NMHSs in generating climate outlook products at national level.User workshops (e.g. media and water-resources) have been incorporated into the process so as to enhance the effective dissemination and application of climate monitoring and prediction information, and to create good working relations between the climate scientists and the various weather-sensitive sectors.Since August 1999, the SADC DMC has organized 9 pre-SARCOF capacity building workshops, including two media water resources and livestock workshops.In each workshop, inadequacies in the forecasting system are identified from previous experiences and attempts are made to address already recognised weaknesses.
51 4. CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMS The SADC DMC has organized nine Southern Africa Climate Outlook forums (SARCOF),To provide a consensus seasonal climate outlook form for the SADC region.Create a platform for interaction between the users and the climate scientists to enhance the application of meteorology to the reduction of climate related risks to food security, water resources and health for sustainable socio-economic development in the SADC region
52 CAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOP The SARCOF ProcessCAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOPCONSENSUS MEETINGAug - SeptSeptIn AdditionUser (e.g. Media, Health, Agric, Water and Disaster) Workshops
53 Verification of SARCOF The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook for the October to December 2005 had a hit rate of 48% and Heidke Hit Skill Score of 22% . For January to March 2006 season had a hit rate of 69% and Heidke Hit Skill Score of 54%.A good model evaluated over a period of more than ten years has a Heidke Hit Skill Score of 20.0%The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook therefore was useful as its skill scores were within the skill score ranges of a good model.Lusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003
54 This will immensely benefit users of climate services in the subregion, i.e. individuals and institutions from both public and private sectors.
55 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Inadequate infrastructure and appropriate capacity (human and equipment),Lack of coordination and communication between meteorologists and various users group,Limited communication opportunities between countries, andUnavailability of advanced technologies.
56 Challenges and Opportunities Climate Monitoring and PredictionConsultation with end usersImproved delivery systemsTraining in the use of informationIncorporating user feedback
57 Challenges and Opportunities Climate Monitoring and PredictionImproved Seasonal Climate ForecastsIncreased reliabilitySpatial scaleTemporal scale
58 PLANNED ACTIVITIESThe DMC will continue to build on the successes it made in climate analysis and prediction, and strive to improve areas of its weakness.It will empower regional experts involved in climate diagnosis and prediction through on-the-job training, workshops and secondment of these experts to advanced climate centres overseas.This will result in, among other things:research focused on long-lead seasonal climate predictability in order to systematically produce useful forecasts; andeffective use of these experimental forecasts by scientists from participating countries in order to meet their particular social and economic needs.
59 SUMMARYClimate extremes have profound impacts in SADCDMC has contributed to the understanding of these extreme variations in SADC through consistent climate monitoring.DMC generates and disseminates important prediction products.These products are important in providing early warning for mitigation of adverse impacts of extremes in weather and climate.There are still challenges: inadequate resources.DMC have contributed to building capacity in SADC for climate prediction and applications through Climate outlook Forums.