Presentation on theme: "Applied Market Intelligence Electric Vehicle Software European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS EU is behind in deployment Future has risk."— Presentation transcript:
Applied Market Intelligence Electric Vehicle Software European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS EU is behind in deployment Future has risk and opportunities
iSuppli Corporation – 2 Copyright 2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending Electric Vehicle Overview Key InformationImpact/Comments Hybrid Electric Medium-term importance Experience for plug-in EV Mostly in AP and USA Toyota & Honda leads Hybrid as Generator Engine: generator to battery Long-term importance Price premium will decline Range extender to battery Much smaller engine needed Price competitive in 5+ years Plug-in electric car Long-term importance Rapid price declines likely EV limitations will decline Electric motor: Up to 80% efficient Volume production & innovation Innovations coming i.e. solar film Battery Technology Current AP battery lead USA R&D investment EU R&D investment New battery innovation likely China: BYD-battery & car maker More investment likely More investment needed 1 innovation away from disruption High Voltage Electronics Continued EU leadership Rapid cost decline likely Innovation coming ST Micro, Infineon Semiconductor learning curve Improved battery management Internal combustion engine: Up to 20% efficiency
iSuppli Corporation – 3 Copyright 2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending Electric Vehicle Software Overview Key InformationComments Battery Complexity Thousands of small batteries Best structure is unknown Fault management is key Software is a key technology Innovative architecture needed More innovation is needed Battery System Complexity Charging management Thermal heat management Energy recovery Software is a key technology Major safety issue From brakes; solar film likely Electric Motor Management Many organization options Motor control High voltage systems EU has strong expertise Software control important Semi technology is key Software Platform AUTOSAR likely Driver software Application software EU advantage EU expertise likely EU innovation is key How can EU build the EV software expertise to gain EV leadership? What is needed and who will take the leadership?
iSuppli Corporation – 4 Copyright 2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending EV Software Summary EV software is a new opportunity It has a decade of software improvements ahead No company or region has insurmountable lead It can be an EU software opportunity EV software has potential for upheaval impact Many and large uncertainties From business models to technical issues Auto physical architecture: Body Chassis: wires only New auto segment: Low-range city car Influenced by geo-political & business issues Can EU build enough EV software expertise to gain EV leadership, even if batteries are manufactured in low-cost countries? Is an AUTOSAR-style effort the answer?
Applied Market Intelligence Auto Embedded Software: EU Competitiveness European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS EU is currently in strong position Future holds increased risks
iSuppli Corporation – 6 Copyright 2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending 2010 2015 2020 Autonomous Driving SW V2V & V2I Software Powertrain: Combustion Infotainment Systems Integrated ADAS SW Chassis & Body Safety & Driver Assist EU Software Competitiveness Overview Powertrain: Combustion Infotainment Systems Chassis & Body ADAS & Driver Assist Autosar API MS Auto QNX Genivi Autosar MS & QNX Genivi? QNX & MS Genivi, Autosar, Other API Powertrain: Electric Autosar, Other API? Powertrain: Combustion Chassis & Body Powertrain: Electric Autosar Autosar, Other API Genivi, Autosar, Other API EU Strength EU Good/OK Unknown
iSuppli Corporation – 7 Copyright 2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending EU Embedded Software Competitiveness CategoryKey InformationOther Information Software Standards Activities EU AUTOSAR leadership GENIVI: USA & EU leadership EU can make GENIVI a standard GENIVI outside infotainment? AUTOSAR updates are planned Led by Intel and BMW EU luxury OEMs play key role ADAS, V2X and other apps Operating System Software EU has led OSEK software EU has led AUTOSAR specs AUTOSAR OS product: leader Infotainment OS: EU not leader OSEK importance to fade: 2015 AUTOSAR OS updates planned AUTOSAR OS commodity QNX and Microsoft are leaders Driver SW EU leads AUTOSAR driver SW Leadership not needed Driver SW commodity by 2015 Product from many suppliers Software Tools AUTOSAR tools: EU leadership Other tools: Strong EU firms Tools being integrated USA tool firms are entering Strong USA PC-related tool firms EU & USA are main competitors
iSuppli Corporation – 8 Copyright 2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending EU Application Software Competitiveness CategoryKey InformationComments Core Auto Applications Powertrain: EU leadership Chassis: EU leadership Others: Mostly EU leadership EU need to lead EV SW Standards may erode lead Commoditization is a threat Infotainment EU need to improve App stores create more risk Auto Apps Stores Wide open competition Potential software upheaval Much uncertainty EU need to invest & innovate ADAS Software EU: ADAS & sensor expertise Software & sensor systems Leverage into SW leadership AUTOSAR or GENIVI platforms? V2X Software V2X is software intensive Layered software architecture Some from PC & CE software EU/USA/Jp lead standards V2X deployment lead needed EU need to lead in V2X software CVIS is defining architecture EU need to invest more Coordination with USA & Japan Regulation would be leadership Autonomous Driving SW Mature V2X application Who will lead these apps? Emerging post-2020 EU need to invest in this field
iSuppli Corporation – 9 Copyright 2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending Software Value Application SW Driver OS 201020152020 Software Commoditization Counter: SW Renewal Application SW Driver New Driver Better OS OS Version 2 OS Version 3 Better OS More Drivers Enhanced OS Better Apps Application Better Apps New Apps More Apps New Apps
iSuppli Corporation – 10 Copyright 2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending EU Software Competitiveness Summary EU is in a strong competitive position AUTOSAR standard is providing core auto software lead AUTOSAR can be a guideline for future great achievements EU software position has increased future risk Standards create software commoditization eventually EU needs to secure EV software leadership Second to USA in infotainment software Faster auto and software development cycle Apps store software trend creates more risk for EU Software innovation is required, which depends on investment: education, R&D & business climate Can EU retain auto software leadership with paradigm shifts in technology, business models, applications and innovation? What are the keys to retain EU software leadership?