Presentation on theme: "Risks in future water use, energy development and environment in the western Balkan region due to climate change Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana,"— Presentation transcript:
Risks in future water use, energy development and environment in the western Balkan region due to climate change Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
Key Questions Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Climate Change 1.Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably? 2.Can we cope with the future demands on water? 3.Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty? 4.Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change? 5.Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems? Biodiversity The Perfect Storm? (Beddington, 2009)
Temperatura zraka na Kredarici statistično značilno narašča
CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O concentrations in the atmosphere are still rising…
Summer temperature in Europe Barriopedro et al., 2011
Main drought events in Europe, 2000–
Recurrence of flood events in Europe (EEA, 2011)
3 classes of water problems in Balkan too little water too much water water pollution Can (and will) be exacerbated by climate change
Business class Over the edge Creative societies Shared responsabilities Markets first Tribal society Security first Battlefield Cybertopia Clash of civilizations Barbarization Prism Just do it Ecologically driven Regional stewardship Global sustainability Local stewardship Provincial enterprise The end of history No Logo Our Common Future B2 A1 B1 A2 Hyper individualism Changing course New global age Have & have- nots The hundred flowers Sustainability first Policy first Great transitions Turbulent neighbourhoods Cultural pluralism Voluntary simplicity Market World Transformed World Fortress World New Empires Change without progress
Source: Knutti & Sedlacek (2012)
Environmental State and Pressures Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using IMAGE model suite CO 2 concentrations 3 - 6°C by ppm
Europe: Geographic Changes % -50% Minus (A1B)
Risks in key sectors Water: decresing water availability, changes in precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme weather events, increasing competition of demand Agriculture: Decreasing agricultural production, economic decline, more unempoyment, food shortages, increasing competition of demand Urbanisation: Increasing disaster risks, health risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases running costs (damages, flooding etc) or reduces energy production (hydro) Water Food Energy Infrastru cture transport Urban space Land use Governance Climate change
JRC DG Regios 2020 THE CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGE FOR EUROPEAN REGIONS
Adaptive capacity the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and changes (IPCC 2007) Awareness Technology and infrastructure Economic resources Institutions
Vulnerability to climate change is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007). Countries which expect a high increase in impact seem to be less able to adapt Climate change would trigger a deepening of the existing socio-economic imbalances between the core of Europe and its periphery. Future runs counter to territorial cohesion ?
Magnitude of dependence on hydropower Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008
Relative change of average ( ) total discharge volumes calculated with WaterGAP 2.1 for the 2020s
Relative change of average ( ) total discharge volumes calculated with WaterGAP 2.1 for the 2070s
Climate change effects on hydroelectric production potential
Framework of climate change effects on different characteristics of hydropower schemes Discharge, temporal variability, and glacial melt do not apply to pure pumped storage, which is not connected to a river network. Only evaporation is applicable to reservoir surface area to volume ratio (SA:Vol).
BALKAN areas: impacts of climate change –Decrease of runoff (reduction of hydropower production) –Increase of (catastrophic) drought periods Critical situation for run of river HPP production Importance of the storage capacity will rise (multipurpose use!) Restrictions for the operation of thermal power plants because of a lack of cooling water or the water temperature is to high High electricity demand because of air conditioning
Impacts on the hydropower generation The effects of the climate change scenarios on the water regime in Europe are: very uncertain locally different Still difficult to have clear strategies In alpine and mountain areas (most scenarios show) decrease of summer runoff, increase of winter runoff decrease of the snowpack, glaciers increase of extreme events (floods and droughts) Importance of the storage capacity will rise Flood protection by storage HPP on a local scale Positive influence on the run-off during drought periods New rules regarding dam safety (new hydrological methods) Sediment problems will increase (permafrost level in alpine areas)
Conclusions Climate change is a serious issue for the whole electricity industry Hydropower is still the most important renewable energy source in Europe and the role of renewable energy sources will further increase Hydropower operators must have a strong focus on climate change and have to learn to deal with uncertainty At this point in time, the impacts are not sufficiently quantified in Balkan region and adaptation and mitigation strategies not in place
CO2 avoidance by Hydropower 1 GWh from Hydropower corresponds to approximately 220 tonns oil 1 GWh from Hydropower corresponds to approximately 330 tonns hard coal
Conclusions South East Europe faces formidable climate change challenges. At this point in time, the impacts are not sufficiently quantified in SEE region and adaptation and mitigation strategies not in place.
Proportion of severe water stress EU river basins likely to increase from 19% today to 35% by Areas affected by droughts will increase.
Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC, 2011) There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21 st century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration. This applies to regions including southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America, Central America and Mexico, NE Brazil, and S Africa.
The net change in territorial emissions (1990–2008) together with the change in the net emission transfer between each country and non-Annex B countries. The red stars represent pledged emission reduction commitments in the Kyoto Protocol. Europe (EU27 + Croatia, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland. Peters et al., 2011