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1 Workshop Regions acting on climate change: the contribution of satellite information and services Open Days European Week of Regions and Cities, Brussels,

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Presentation on theme: "1 Workshop Regions acting on climate change: the contribution of satellite information and services Open Days European Week of Regions and Cities, Brussels,"— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Workshop Regions acting on climate change: the contribution of satellite information and services Open Days European Week of Regions and Cities, Brussels, 7 October 2007 Climate change: causes, effects, and satellite solutions for regions André Jol European Environment Agency

2 2 The European Environment Agency is the EU body dedicated to providing sound, independent information on the environment We are a main information source for those involved in developing, adopting, implementing and evaluating environmental policy, and also the general public The EEA mission

3 3 EEA member and collaborating countries Member countries Collaborating countries

4 4 Impacts of climate change in Europe, adaptation challenges and EU/national action Greenhouse gas projections, effectiveness of mitigation and EU/national action Information needs (in-situ and Kopernikus/GMES) Way forward (EEA role) Content of presentation

5 5 Key past and projected impacts Main biogeographic regions of Europe (EEA member countries)

6 6 Extremes of cold became less frequent and warm extremes more frequent Number of hot days almost tripled between 1880 and 2005 Temperature extremes in Europe Increase in frequency, intensity and duration of heat-waves Further decrease of number of cold days and frost extremes future past Observed changes in duration of warm spells in summer in the period Projected changes in number of tropical nights between periods and

7 7 Intensity of precipitation extremes increased in the past 50 years (across Europe) No change in part of Europe experiencing meteorological drought conditions Precipitation extremes in Europe More frequent heavy precipitation events (across Europe) More and longer dry periods (especially in southern Europe) future past Changes in the contribution of heavy rainfall to total precipitation between Number of consecutive dry days (1860 – 2100)

8 8 Climate variability and change contributed to an increase in average ozone concentration in central and South-Western (1-2% /decade) The high long-lasting ozone concentration in summer 2003 was associated with the extreme heat wave Air pollution by ozone Climate-induced increase in ozone levels may make current ozone abatement policies inadequate future past Trend in tropospheric ozone concentration due to climate variability and climate change

9 9

10 10 Glaciers A 3°C increase in average summer temperature could reduce the existing glacier cover of the Alps by 80% With continuing climate change nearly all smaller glaciers and one third of glacier area in Norway could disappear by 2100 The vast majority of European glaciers is in retreat (accelerated since 1980s) Since 1850 the glaciers in the Alps lost about two thirds of their volume future past Cumulative specific net mass balance of glaciers from all European glaciated regions Modelled remains of the glacier cover in the European Alps for an increase in average summer air temperature of 1 to 5ºC

11 11 Arctic sea ice Summer ice is projected to continue to shrink and may even disappear at the height of the summer melt season in the coming decades There will be still substantial ice in winter Arctic sea ice extent has declined at an accelerating rate, especially in summer The record low ice cover in September 2007 was half of the size of a normal minimum extent in the 1950s future past Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent The 2007 minimum sea-ice extent

12 12 Sea level rise Sea level will rise 0.18 to 0.59 m from to 2100 (IPCC) Recent projections indicate a future SLR that may exceed the IPCC upper limit Global average SLR during the 20 th century was about 1.7mm/year Recent satellite and tide-gauge data indicate a higher average rate of about 3.1 mm/year in the past 15 years future past Sea level changes in Europe Projected global average sea-level rise

13 13 Northward movement of marine species Further northward shift is likely, but projections are not yet available Northward shift of warmer-water plankton species by up to km over last 40 years, which seems to be accelerated since 2000 Many fish species have shifted northward (e.g. silvery john dory by 50 km/y) and sub-tropical species are occurring increasingly in European waters past future Recordings of two tropical fish Subarctic species Northward movement of zooplankton between

14 14 River floods Increase in the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe Less snow accumulation in winter and lower risk of early spring flooding Since 1990, 259 major river floods have been reported in Europe (165 since 2000), the increase is mainly because of better reporting and land-use changes past future Occurrence of flood events Relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge between and

15 15 River flow drought Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts in many regions of Europe Southern and south-eastern Europe are most prone to an increase in drought hazard, but minimum river flows will also increase in many other regions Europe has been affected by several major droughts in recent decades (e.g in central parts and 2005 in the Iberian Peninsula) Climate change has probably increased the frequency/severity of droughts in some regions past future Change in the severity of river flow droughts in Europe Relative change in mean summer minimum 7-day river flow between and

16 16 Distribution of plant species Shift of European plant species by hundreds kilometres to the north (by the late 21 st century) Forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north 60 % of all mountain species may face extinction Climate change causes northward and uphill shift of many European plant species Mountain ecosystems are changing as pioneer species expand uphill and cold-adapted species are driven out of their ranges past future Increase in species richness on Swiss Alpine mountain summits in 20 th century Number of disappearing plant species in 2050 Number of disappearing plant species in 2050

17 17 Growing season for agricultural crops A further lengthening of the growing season is projected In western and southern Europe the limited water availability and high temperature will hinder plant growth The lengths of the growing season of several agricultural crops has increased in the North, favouring the introduction of new species Locally in the south there is a shortening of growing season, with higher risk of damages from delayed spring frost past future Rate of change of crop growing season length

18 18 Crop-yield variability More variable crop yields because extreme weather events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude Since the beginning of the 21 st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme weather events past future Sensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheat

19 19 Forest growth Substantial shifts in distribution of forest species across Europe Change in distribution and phenology of both pests and pollinators can lead to further changes in forests Periods of droughts and warmer winters will increase pest populations weakening forests In continental Europe, the forests are growing faster than in the early 20 th century due to improved forest management, nitrogen deposition, reduced acidification, and increased temperature and CO2 concentration past future Current (2000) and projected (2100) forest coverage in Europe

20 20 Forest fire danger More severe fire weather, more area burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons Increases in the fire potential during summer month, especially in southern and central Europe Probably an increase in the frequency of extreme fire danger days in spring and autumn Fire danger increased during the past 50 years particularly in the Mediterranean and central Europe past future Projected changes in fire danger for Average annual change ( ) of fire danger level (SSR) in % per year autumn summer

21 21 European CC Adaptation Challenges Climate-proof EU policies and Directives Integrate adaptation into EUs funding programmes Consider new policies, e.g. spatial planning as an integration tool Integrate adaptation in EU external relations (developing countries) Enhancing the knowledge base, e.g. regarding regional scale and information on costs Involvement of civil society, business sector organisations and enhanced information exchange Exploit opportunities for innovative adaptation technologies Commission Green Paper, consultation in 2007 White Paper with concrete proposals expected early 2009 Early action through existing legislation (Water FWD, Natura2000, etc)

22 22 National adaptation strategies/plans: Under preparation: Belgium, Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Norway, Romania Adopted: Denmark, Finland, France, Hungary, the Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom Adaptation often focused on flood management and defence Scope for other adaptation actions, e.g.: Water demand management (scarcity and droughts) Natural hazard risk management Reinforcing infrastructure Land-use management and spatial planning, greening of cities Ecosystem management Health/heat action plans, health system planning Current national adaptation plans and measures

23 23 Proposed European Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Clearinghouse Climate change observations, impacts, vulnerabilities, actions, costs Provides networking to existing and future thematic and regional networks and organisations (droughts, marine, forest fires, coastal zones, disasters) Contributes to the implementation of the upcoming Commission White Paper on Adaptation Supports the coordination of future EU contributions to the UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme Includes the results of relevant research projects (e.g. EU RTD or JRC projects) Goes beyond EU borders (e.g. transboundary impacts)

24 24 EU-15 Kyoto target could be reached with all measures, Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks

25 25 EU emissions trading scheme Promotion of electricity from renewable energy Improvements in the energy performance of buildings and energy efficiency in large industrial installations Promotion of combined heat and power (CHP) Energy taxation Reducing the average carbon dioxide emissions of new passenger cars Promotion of the use of energy-efficient appliances Recovery of gases from landfills Reduction of fluorinated gases Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions

26 26 Binding EU commitment: cut GHG by 20% by 2020 compared with 1990 levels (internal EU burden sharing still to be agreed) Objective: 30% reduction by 2020 (from 1990) for all industrialised countries if other developed countries will make comparable efforts Long term objective (developed countries): % cut by 2050 (from 1990) Binding target of a 20 % share of renewable energies in total EU energy consumption by 2020 (different national targets to be agreed) Minimum 10% biofuels in total EU transport fuel (petrol, diesel) by 2020 subject to production being sustainable, second- generation biofuels being available, and successful amendments to the fuel quality directive Non-binding target to reduce total EU energy consumption 20% by 2020 Discussions on regulatory framework for environmentally safe carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), review of the EU ETS, CO2 from new passenger cars CARE package climate change and energy (Jan 2008)

27 27 Trends in Transport and Environment (2008 report) The environmental performance of the transport sector is still unsatisfactory Technology changes and measures are insufficient to meet targets Policymakers should also address growth in transport demand

28 28 Renewable energies penetration is still low: mainly biomass, followed by hydropower and wind (growing fastest) (total is 6.7% of primary energy in 2005 or 8.5% of final energy consumption)

29 29 EU share of renewable energy in final energy consumption was 8,5% in 2005 (EU target 20% by 2020), large efforts needed by most MS

30 30 Example: EEA study on wind energy (wind energy density map)

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