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Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Gianluca Misuraca, JRC IPTS Pierre Rossel, CDM EPFL Cristiano Codagnone,

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Presentation on theme: "Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Gianluca Misuraca, JRC IPTS Pierre Rossel, CDM EPFL Cristiano Codagnone,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Gianluca Misuraca, JRC IPTS Pierre Rossel, CDM EPFL Cristiano Codagnone, JRC IPTS The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission

2 Objectives Setting the scene: Policy resistance in an age of complexity ICT for governance and policy modelling: a possible solution? Conceptual and Methodological Framework Results and policy implications Impact of foresight on ICT for governance and policy modelling Implications of integrated foresight and modelling in support of governance and policy making Conclusions: Policy Challenges and Future Research Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Outline

3 To present and discuss the main findings of the scenarios for Digital Europe 2030 designed by JRC IPTS as part of the FP7 CROSSROAD project and based on a foresight exercise which included: an analysis of the key areas of expected change in the domain of ICT- enabled governance and policy modelling (ICT4G&PM), and envisioning, for each scenario, the risks and opportunities offered by ICT tools for governance and policy modelling techniques Based on these findings and discussion To explore new research frontiers embedding foresight methodologies in the future expected mainstreaming of participatory ICT tools and policy modelling techniques Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Objectives of the paper

4 Today, society and the economy are more interconnected, unstable, and unpredictable than ever Current policymaking strategies and the ways of procuring supporting evidence for decision making are no longer able to cope with complex, multidimensional and highly dynamic societal challenges For more than 60 years, society has largely failed to eradicate critical social challenges despite investing increasing resources into state policy activity [Ormerod, 2010] It appears that policy resistance is responsible for these failures Policy resistance occurs when an intended policy outcome is defeated intentionally or unintentionally by complex and dynamic elements, agents, factors, first order and second order feedback loops, and so on. The causes are typically multidimensional and found throughout history [Sterman, 2006] Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Policy resistance in an age of complexity

5 On the other side we have: radical increase in computing power and widespread distribution of networked communities possibility of collecting and processing huge amounts of data at moderate costs Emergence of futuristic visions (e.g. singularity: computers will exceed human cognitive capabilities and an intelligence explosion will improve our quality of life) [Kurzweil, 2005] Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers ICT intelligence explosion for policy modelling Source: CROSSROAD, 2010

6 Current tools and approaches for policy design, implementation and evaluation are ill-suited to capturing the complex and interconnected future being based on an abstract and unrealistic vision of the human being: rational (utility maximising) average (not heterogeneous) atomized (not connected) wise (thinking long-term) often highly simplified (complexity denial) and politically committed In short, the intellectual framework upon which policy making rests is no longer adequate Our claim is that a paradigmatic shift in developing a new policy modelling framework is required However, this is not simply a matter of more computing power and more data: multiple longstanding challenges also need to be addressed Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers In search of a paradigmatic shift on policy modelling

7 EC FP 7th ICT-WP (Obj. 7.3) and (obj. 5.6) joins two complementary research fields (traditionally separated): the Governance and Participation Toolbox (technologies such as mass conversation and collaboration tools); and the Policy Modelling domain (forecasting, agent-based modelling, simulation and visualisation) Aims: improve public decision-making in the age of complexity make policy-making and governance more effective and more intelligent and accelerate learning path and implementation in the policy cycle Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers ICT for governance and policy modelling: a possible solution?

8 Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers The challenge: filling the gap between societal behaviours and governance processes PoliciesHealthR&DSocial DisciplinesEconomicsMathematicsICT ActorsGovernmentCitizensIndustry Society increasingly interconnected, flexible, fast- evolving, unpredictable Governance processes often silos-based, linear, obscure, hierarchical, over-simplified Goal Source: CROSSROAD, 2010

9 Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers (Coordinator) National Technical University of Athens (Coordinator) Tech4i2 LimitedEuropean Projects & Management Agency University Koblenz- Landau Joint Research Centre European Commission FP7 Coordination and Support Action aiming at: driving the identification of emerging technologies, new governance models and novel application scenarios in the domain of ICT for governance and policy modelling leading to the structuring of a beyond the state-of-the-art research roadmap embraced by the research and practice communities

10 Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers CROSSROAD Roadmapping Methodological Approach State of the art: research push Future scenarios: demand pull GapsGaps Grandchallenges (draft) Grand challenges (draft) Research challenges Research roadmap (final) Source: CROSSROAD, 2010

11 Work conducted by IPTS IS Unit as part of CROSSROAD aiming at developing a visionary scenario analysis based on a foresight exercise to: identify key areas of expected change in the context of radical different future scenarios anticipate for each scenario, the risks and opportunities offered by ICT tools for governance and policy modelling The scenario design exercise proposes a set of scenarios of exploratory nature and presented qualitatively (i.e. narrative scenarios / storyboards) The proposed scenarios are instrumental to develop a shared vision to inspire collaborative and interdisciplinary research to mobilize the various governance stakeholders in addressing current and future societal challenges to provide inputs to the CROSSROAD Roadmap to provide strategic directions for the future research on ICT4G&PM Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Envisioning Digital Europe 2030: Scenarios for ICT in future governance and policy modelling

12 Governments struggle to regulate an increasingly interdependent and complex world, as the financial crisis and other emergencies have shown Policy-makers do not have the luxury of waiting until situations are clarified and until the effects are evident before they take decisions Citizens are becoming more vocal in monitoring and influencing policy decisions and future scenarios are likely to show greater complexity and citizens involvement Current ICT tools for collaborative governance and policy modelling start to show great opportunities for decision-making but they still remain an exception and research is fragmented between academic fields, application areas, and approaches to innovation (theory vs. practice led) Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Rationale of the CROSSROAD scenario design

13 The history of future studies spans several decades and there are various methods for exploring the future However, the growing knowledge-intensity, the pace of technological and societal changes, and the increasingly networked character of the economy and governance processes, cannot be explored using technology-oriented future studies only A more comprehensive approach is needed the approach followed in designing scenarios for Digital Europe 2030 relies on foresight methods, which are based on a broader concept than Technology Forecasting and Assessment it implies a wide range of themes and stakeholders perspectives in order to examine the social and economic aspects of future technological developments the process is interactive, open-ended and bottom-up in order to identify possible breakthroughs and explore implications and hypotheses that will support defining strategic directions and policy-related decision-making Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Conceptual Framework

14 Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Methodological Approach 1. Identify Trends 2. Classification of trends 3. Extraction of key dimensions of uncertainties 4. Dimensions combined to identify scenarios 5. Scenarios stories and description 5. Scenarios stories and description Source: Popper, 2008 Governance/ Policy modelling Civil Servants Transactional environment Government Private Sector Technology suppliers Civil society organisations Contextual environment National politics and policies Socio- demographic developments Economics Research Community EU policies technology Administrative culture and attitudes Other practitioners 14

15 Combining foresight and modelling techniques in a dynamic and participatory manner may enhance policy intelligence capabilities and thus lead to a better governance and policy making process e.g. Foresight can help modelling in picking up 'weak signals Our hypothesis is that embedding foresight techniques in structured modelling platforms may serve as a crucial part of an early warning system it can be used as an instrument for developing policy intelligence mechanisms participative, transparent, forward-looking methods may support policy-makers in finding solutions for complex societal challenges that cannot be addressed by traditional policy recipes and models based on evidence from the past a dynamic component need to be introduced in modelling systems so to take into consideration changes and trends developments, as well as inputs from all interested stakeholders that would guarantee effective policy implementation Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Exploring the next frontiers: combining foresight and modelling techniques

16 Structuring a scenario design framework for shaping the future in the domain of governance and policy making The key societal, policy and technology-research trends can be distilled in two basic uncertainties related to the way the European society and member states will shape their policies and research agendas in the future: the societal value systems we will be living in (more inclusive, open and transparent or exclusive fractured and restrictive), and the response (partial or complete, proactive or reactive) to the acquisition and integration of policy intelligence techniques in support of data processing, visualization and simulation for evidence-based policy modelling These uncertainties are translated into two key dimensions of impact: Degree of Openness and Transparency (Axis Y) and Degree of Integration in Policy Intelligence (Axis X) Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Results and policy implications: the impact of foresight on ICT for governance and policy modelling

17 Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Results and policy implications: the impact of foresight on ICT for governance and policy modelling Low Openness & Transparency : extreme 0 High Openness & Transparency: extreme 1 extreme 1 Low Integration of Policy Intelligence extreme 0 Self-Service Governance Open Governance Privatised Governance Leviathan Governance High Integration of Policy Intelligence Envisioning Digital Europe 2030 Source: CROSSROAD, 2010

18 In all the scenarios, the world in 2030 is expected to be radically different from today's due to the unprecedented growth and speed of ICT uptake in several fields and the related impact ICT tools for governance and policy modelling may have The influences and drivers of innovation and renewal in the public sector will result not only in change, but will affect the pace at which the state adapts to the new environment, to its new roles and to increased engagement with stakeholders and users Whichever scenario dominates in the future traditional governance models will be challenged as ICT-based disruptions impinge on democratic, consultative and policy- making processes Evidence shows that the scope and scale of transformation will have a major impact on society (e.g. Web2.0, mobile ICT, pervasive computing, etc.) ICT tools can herald the transition to a different form of dynamically participative governance models Results and policy implications: the impact of foresight on ICT for governance and policy modelling Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers

19 While such scenarios are readily imaginable, we do not have appropriate governance models, process flows, or analytical tools with which to properly understand, interpret, visualise and harness the forces that could be unleashed in a world that is increasingly using non-physical communication and borderless interaction, traditional roles and responsibilities of public administrations will be subject to considerable change classical boundaries between citizens and governments will become increasingly blurred the balance of power between governments, societal actors and the population will have to adapt to these challenging new possibilities A key issue will be to develop and apply advanced ICT tools to provide robust support to the change process and facilitate the transition to a new digitally-derived legitimacy Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Results and policy implications: the impact of foresight on ICT for governance and policy modelling

20 The scenarios developed resulted in a substantial contribution to shaping the roadmap of future research in the domain of ICT4G&PM Participatory foresight processes bring together not only experts and interested parties but involve directly policy-makers and other key stakeholders (e.g. comments/annotation of public deliverables, CoP, etc.) This also confirmed that an opening of the decision-making process is required to ensure robustness and effectiveness of its outcomes shift in policy making practices from shaping framework conditions and structural settings towards strategic decision making recognition of the growing complexity of governance processes Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Implications of integrated foresight and modelling in support of governance and policy making

21 A shift towards evidence-based / model-based policy making is happening not always supported by effective empirical data and conceptually sound understanding of the societal implications of modelling techniques per-se initial enthusiasm is given way to a significant deal of scepticism, both from 'traditional modellers' and non-experts, including policy-makers themselves Policy effectiveness depends also on the involvement of a broader range of stakeholders than those formally in charge of policy decisions This concept of distributed policy-making and intelligence originally set out by [Kuhlman, 2001] is de facto at the core of the foresight and roadmapping exercise underpinning CROSSROAD openness of governance systems and integration of policy intelligence can harness collective wisdom, building on the knowledge, experience, and competence of various actors Applying this network perspective to a 'distributed platform' based on ICT-enabled policy modelling and integrated foresight techniques may be instrumental to further implement policies and achieve socio-economic impacts Implications of integrated foresight and modelling in support of governance and policy making Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers

22 Conclusions: limits and possible directions of evidence- based policy-making Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Source: Piniewski, B., Codagnone, C, and Osimo, D. JRC-IPTS, 2011

23 Strict relationship with the broader task of developing the Future Internet The Internet was not designed to serve massive scale applications Emerging technologies (e.g. high quality video, 3D, or applications enabling mass collaboration, data processing, simulation and visualization through complex modelling) face severe constraints as regards running seamlessly anytime, anywhere, with good quality services Multi disciplinary research to benefit from the opportunities of ICT for better governance and policy making and to overcome the possible risks to society of mainstreaming large scale applications in this domain is needed Considering socio-economic aspects in the development of future ICT tools for governance and policy modelling techniques Designing suitable governance and policy-making mechanisms, which provide appropriate incentives for participation, but at the same time ensure security and avoid risks (of enlarging digital exclusion, for example) Solving legal and regulatory issues (e.g. digital rights, privacy and data protection, and the demand for trust in governance in an IoT environment) Conclusions: policy challenges & possible solutions Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers

24 Conclusions: Future Research and Next Frontiers Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Source: Adapted from CROSSROAD, 2010, and Piniewski, Codagnone, and Osimo, JRC-IPTS, 2011 Distributed Policy Intelligence Platform Foresight / Anticipating the Future

25 Conclusions: Future Research and Next Frontiers Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers The future is already here… …it is just unevenly distributed William Gibson, Science Fiction Writer

26 Conclusions: Future Research and Next Frontiers Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers Current modelling techniques are not adequate to predict, monitor and evaluate policy developments and their impacts on society, relative absence of a meta-level of analysis, a reflexive layer where not only it would be possible to model, but also model how to model A new policy-modelling paradigm shift is required not only by enabling users to become 'living sensors' and providing data to be directly fed into comprehensive models but also giving the possibility to the users to have direct access to data they need, and process them using ICT-enabled simulation and visualization 'intelligent' systems (i.e. able to find meaning in confusion, independently of human-acquired knowledge)

27 ICT alone cannot solve everything and can even generate new problems both institutional and cultural changes are needed Data and information are a fundamental building block of this new paradigm different data may come in different formats and be difficult to link correctly data about the future are not available (even the more sophisticated model will not allow to predict exactly what impacts specific policies may have) Complement modelling approaches with participatory foresight techniques allowing for example the possibility to gather data and opinions directly from users (e.g enabling both participatory sensing and opportunistic sensing) developing innovative policy intelligence platforms that based on advanced participation, new modelling and simulation techniques will help bridging the knowledge asymmetry between the experts, the policy makers and the citizen Foresight will be a crucial component as the real time dynamic of such a policy intelligence platform will not rely simply on data about past and present facts, but will provide the framework for alternative policy options and related impacts Problems once unknowable due to their size and complexity may become quite knowable Conclusions: Future Research and Next Frontiers Foresight and policy modelling on ICT for governance: exploring the next frontiers

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