1. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. 3TIER a renewable energy information services company Bart Nijssen Chief Information Officer AMS Summer Community Meeting August 11 2009

2. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. Our industry Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, 2007 Weather-driven renewable energy generation

3. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. Rapid growth – 20% wind scenario US

4. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. Rapid growth – BPA Balancing Area Source: BPA Factsheet, Mar 2009

5. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. Intermittent Weather-Driven Renewables

6. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. Variable Weather-Driven Renewables

7. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. 3TIER - renewable energy information services Prospecting and Pre-feasibility Feasibility and Due Diligence Design and Construction Operations

8. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. 3TIER People Computers Scalable delivery platforms Market penetration examples: Operational wind energy forecasts for > 10,000 MW of installed capacity 30 thousand registered users of FirstLook® (firstlook.3tier.com)

9. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. Observational data needs  Historic records ›Establish climatology ›Calibrate and train models ›Analog forecasts  Real-time ›Used directly in forecast generation

10. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. 3TIER Hour Ahead Forecast System

11. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. Impact of off-site observations Days Cumulative Advantage (MWh) Advantage Over Hourly Persistence

12. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. Requirements  Timeliness ›Is becoming even more important as people become more interested in short-term forecasts (e.g. next 30 minutes at 5 minute increments)  Standardized metadata  Quality assurance / quality control

13. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. Closing remarks  3TIER does not collect the observations directly -> agnostic to where it comes from  Meteorological observations cover only part of the data needs required for power forecasting (power data, turbine availability, etc)  Data owners are generally very protective of their own data

14. © 2009 3TIER, Inc. www.3tier.com