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1 Modeling the Information Society as a Complex System Noemi L. Olivera GECSI-FCJyS-UNLP, Arg. Araceli N. Proto CIC, LSC-FI-UBA, Arg. Marcel Ausloos GRAPES-SUPRATECS,

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Presentation on theme: "1 Modeling the Information Society as a Complex System Noemi L. Olivera GECSI-FCJyS-UNLP, Arg. Araceli N. Proto CIC, LSC-FI-UBA, Arg. Marcel Ausloos GRAPES-SUPRATECS,"— Presentation transcript:

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2 1 Modeling the Information Society as a Complex System Noemi L. Olivera GECSI-FCJyS-UNLP, Arg. Araceli N. Proto CIC, LSC-FI-UBA, Arg. Marcel Ausloos GRAPES-SUPRATECS, ULG, Belg. Scientific Cooperation Agreement CONICET-FNRS

3 2 WSIS Statement: We, the representatives of the peoples of the world, assembled in Geneva from December 2003 for the first phase of the World Summit on the Information Society, We, the representatives of the peoples of the world, assembled in Geneva from December 2003 for the first phase of the World Summit on the Information Society, declare our common desire and commitment to build a people-centred, inclusive and development-oriented Information Society, where everyone can create, access, utilize and share information and knowledge, enabling individuals, communities and peoples to achieve their full potential in promoting their sustainable development and improving their quality of life, premised on the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and respecting fully and upholding the Universal Declaration of Human Rights WSIS-03/GENEVA/DOC/4-E, 12 December 2003 WSIS-03/GENEVA/DOC/4-E, 12 December 2003

4 3 Goals: Intensive usage of ICT in daily life => Intensive usage of ICT in daily life => Information Society -IS- Information Society -IS- as well as different problems => as well as different problems => demand stable solutions demand stable solutions Therefore, certain policies are required Therefore, certain policies are required POLICY: a course of action or inaction chosen by public authorities to solve, in most cases, an interrelated set of problems POLICY: a course of action or inaction chosen by public authorities to solve, in most cases, an interrelated set of problems BUT BUT

5 4 Issues: Due to ICT, information is globally transmitted almost instantaneously. Due to ICT, information is globally transmitted almost instantaneously. Yet, different societies and cultures have different reactions to the information received and different times to absorb it and implement its value. Yet, different societies and cultures have different reactions to the information received and different times to absorb it and implement its value. So, policies to be applied should be carefully analyzed as they need to fill up at least two different issues: So, policies to be applied should be carefully analyzed as they need to fill up at least two different issues: (a) to be acceptable for any national society (a) to be acceptable for any national society (b) to be coherent with external conditions (b) to be coherent with external conditions

6 5 Content: This contribution is devoted to show how social, legal and ethical aspects of the IS can and should be analyzed using the concept of complex systems, as the IS has most of those systems properties, in the sense that societies and economies are interrelated in a nonlinear way and often self-organizing within some general constraints This contribution is devoted to show how social, legal and ethical aspects of the IS can and should be analyzed using the concept of complex systems, as the IS has most of those systems properties, in the sense that societies and economies are interrelated in a nonlinear way and often self-organizing within some general constraints

7 6 Problems: Two relevant problems regarding the IS are treated in this contribution: Two relevant problems regarding the IS are treated in this contribution: (a) the Digital Divide -DD- (a) the Digital Divide -DD-and (b) the Internet Governance -IG- (b) the Internet Governance -IG-

8 7 Data? Both expressed through the perception of policy makers and social scientists Both expressed through the perception of policy makers and social scientists There is little data to be analyzed There is little data to be analyzed In this context, data analysis followed by the construction of adequate physical models which are able to describe different future scenarios that can be further discussed, appear to be if not extremely relevant, very much rewarding In this context, data analysis followed by the construction of adequate physical models which are able to describe different future scenarios that can be further discussed, appear to be if not extremely relevant, very much rewarding

9 8 Part I The Digital Divide

10 9 the world is divided between people who do and people who do not have access to ICT the world is divided between people who do and people who do not have access to ICT the DD involves the gap between the educated and uneducated, between economic classes, and the more and less industrially developed nations the DD involves the gap between the educated and uneducated, between economic classes, and the more and less industrially developed nations To sum up: A DUAL SOCIETY To sum up: A DUAL SOCIETY

11 10 Ising model approach to Digital Divide Briefly, it is a lattice of sites (interpreted here as agents), each site can have two values (blue/cyan, +1/-1). Briefly, it is a lattice of sites (interpreted here as agents), each site can have two values (blue/cyan, +1/-1). Neighboring sites have an energetic preference to have the same value. Neighboring sites have an energetic preference to have the same value. The temperature is associated to the degree of interest or relevance concerning a given situation: The temperature is associated to the degree of interest or relevance concerning a given situation: to be in or out of the IS. to be in or out of the IS. The external field represents the applied policies. The external field represents the applied policies. Simulation method: C. Caiafa and A. Proto, International Journal of Modern Physics C 17 (2006) Simulation method: C. Caiafa and A. Proto, International Journal of Modern Physics C 17 (2006) 29-38

12 11 The initial situation Fig. 1 Neighbor structure, each agent has eight neighbors with whom to interact. Fig.2 Bidimensional plot showing initial situation/state of each agent. Blue dots are the in agents (+1) and cyan the out (-1) ones, as in the following draws.

13 12 Time evolution; no external field Fig.3 Bidimensional plot showing the stable situation of each agent Fig.3 Bidimensional plot showing the stable situation of each agent when there is no external field ( = without policies) when there is no external field ( = without policies) Fig.4 The number of in and out agents, Fig.4 The number of in and out agents, plotted versus time/iteration

14 13 Applying an external field (H = 1, arbitrary units), that represents a certain policy Fig.5 Bidimensional plot showing Fig.5 Bidimensional plot showing the stable situation of each agent the stable situation of each agent Fig.6 The number of in and out agents, Fig.6 The number of in and out agents, plotted versus time/iteration

15 14 Finally, we apply a more adequate policy (external field H = 2 arbitrary units) Fig.7 Bi-dimensional plot Fig.7 Bi-dimensional plot showing the stable situation of each agent after a long time Fig.8 The number of in and out agents, Fig.8 The number of in and out agents, plotted versus time/iteration plotted versus time/iteration

16 15 Conclusions on DD Numerical simulations of the Ising model shows that adequate policies drastically reduce the time required for the society to arrive at, almost all, in agents. Numerical simulations of the Ising model shows that adequate policies drastically reduce the time required for the society to arrive at, almost all, in agents. In zero external field, a low number of agents shall be in; it takes a long time to reach a steady state In zero external field, a low number of agents shall be in; it takes a long time to reach a steady state Thus in many situations (countries, regions, social groups), defined policies should be implemented in order to encourage people to move in the Information Society. Thus in many situations (countries, regions, social groups), defined policies should be implemented in order to encourage people to move in the Information Society.

17 16 Part II The Internet Governance

18 17 The regulation of the Internet Internet, being a global network, should not be submitted to the national state regulation of each connected country Internet, being a global network, should not be submitted to the national state regulation of each connected country Neither should it be submitted to the national state regulation of one given country Neither should it be submitted to the national state regulation of one given country In fact, Internet would be an ideal example of an institution that can only be ruled by international law; … actually, it is not In fact, Internet would be an ideal example of an institution that can only be ruled by international law; … actually, it is not

19 18 Internet Governance : Government, Management? The WSIS is committed to governance, a term that corresponds to the so-called post-modern form of economic and political organizations The WSIS is committed to governance, a term that corresponds to the so-called post-modern form of economic and political organizations Some authors maintain that the cyberspace shows a somehow feudal character that emerges from the hierarchical privatization of its government associated with the granting of Internet domains Some authors maintain that the cyberspace shows a somehow feudal character that emerges from the hierarchical privatization of its government associated with the granting of Internet domains ICANN, the gatekeeper of the Internet, leads the de facto management of the net ICANN, the gatekeeper of the Internet, leads the de facto management of the net

20 19 Internet Governance Forum (IGF) In the Tunis phase of the WSIS (Nov. 2005), governments asked the UN Secretary-General to convene a Forum, In the Tunis phase of the WSIS (Nov. 2005), governments asked the UN Secretary-General to convene a Forum, with the mandate to discuss the main public policy issues related to Internet Governance in order to foster the Internet's sustainability, robustness, security, stability and development. with the mandate to discuss the main public policy issues related to Internet Governance in order to foster the Internet's sustainability, robustness, security, stability and development. WSIS-05/TUNIS/DOC/6(Rev.1)-E WSIS-05/TUNIS/DOC/6(Rev.1)-E Inaugural Meeting, Athens, Nov Inaugural Meeting, Athens, Nov Second Meeting, Rio de Janeiro, Nov Second Meeting, Rio de Janeiro, Nov. 2007

21 20 The regulation of the Internet The international management of the Internet should be multilateral, transparent and democratic The international management of the Internet should be multilateral, transparent and democratic Therefore, it demands the full involvement of governments, the private sector, civil society and international organizations the full involvement of governments, the private sector, civil society and international organizations (WSIS, Tunis Agenda, 2005, 29) (WSIS, Tunis Agenda, 2005, 29) BUT BUT

22 21 IGF Participants Government Delegations Government Delegations Private sector (Civil Society?) Private sector (Civil Society?) companies, companies, trade associations, trade associations, non profit organizations, non profit organizations, fully committed to the Internet fully committed to the Internet Individuals Individuals International Organizations International Organizations ENTITIES ENTITIES ISOC Italy, SOTEL CHAD, Telecom, … ISOC Italy, SOTEL CHAD, Telecom, … GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS Norwegian Media Authority, IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística), … Norwegian Media Authority, IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística), …

23 22 IGF Participants: agents in the model well-established in the Information Society agents: Old (O) STAKEHOLDERS well-established in the Information Society agents: Old (O) STAKEHOLDERS ICANN, software companies, Internet providers and NGO involved in the development of communications and the Internet. ICANN, software companies, Internet providers and NGO involved in the development of communications and the Internet. These agents presently lead the de facto management of the net These agents presently lead the de facto management of the net agents that are trying to find a seat in the IS Governance: New (N) PARTICIPANTS agents that are trying to find a seat in the IS Governance: New (N) PARTICIPANTS civil society agents, like NGO, individuals, SME civil society agents, like NGO, individuals, SME can also include several governments can also include several governments

24 23 The IGF outcomes Chairmans Summary: Chairmans Summary: among several appeals to self-regulation and soft law instruments, a consistent demand of state regulations appears: among several appeals to self-regulation and soft law instruments, a consistent demand of state regulations appears: There was a clear convergence of views that governments had an important role to play in creating a solid regulatory framework and making sure that the rule of law was well established and respected. There was a clear convergence of views that governments had an important role to play in creating a solid regulatory framework and making sure that the rule of law was well established and respected. Whose views? Whose views? In whose benefit has such a demand been posed? In whose benefit has such a demand been posed?

25 24 Modified version of the Lotka (Lotka, 1925) - Volterra (Volterra 1932) model applied to web site competition (Maurer and Huberman, 2000) and in hung scenarios in sociology (Caiafa and Proto, 2006). N differential evolution equations (Maurer and Huberman, 2000) : Lotka-Volterra model I weight i-th agent opinion the time derivative of f i ; f i is the weight of the i-th agent opinion, at each time t, with summatoria the f i equal 1 (i, j = 0, 1,..., N).

26 25 Lotka-Volterra model II The parameters of the model: i, the growth rate of the agent i, i, the saturation value of the i-th agent. In order to introduce the size of the agents, the growth rate parameter i is taken as (Economo et al, 2005) : a : is the selection pressure constant and equal for all agents living in the same environment (here the IS) b i : reflects the inverse of agent competitiveness associated to the cost to do something(Porter, 1980).

27 26 Lotka-Volterra model III modification of the growth makes it possible to take the agents size Competitiveness should be understood as the cost imposed to the agents ideas/interests to be accepted in the regulation of the Information Society. This simple modification of the growth makes it possible to take the agents size into account in a simple way. We consider ten agents as an example; a = 1 equal for all agents (ideally, all the agents have the same rights as regards the policies for the sustainability of the IS). Also for simplicity we keep i = = 1.

28 27 Lotka-Volterra model IV long term weight f i (importance of its opinion)i-th agent We look at the evolution of and determine the long term weight f i (importance of its opinion) of the i-th agent. Old big-sizeOb i Simulations have been done for a situation where there are 40% of Old big-size agents (O) (b i = 0.10 to 0.13) Newsmall-sizeNb i 60% of New small-size agents (N) (b i = 0.41 to 0.46). ONf i Initial conditions for both, the O- and N- agents : f i = 0.1. ij values are fixed = +/- 1. Ocompetition The O agents are in competition among themselves : ij sign is the same (positive = +1). N ooperate (-1) or compete (+1); scenarios are determined through the numbers of identical igns: 0%, 40%, 66%, 100%. The N agents cooperate (-1) or compete (+1); scenarios are determined through the numbers of identical ij signs: 0%, 40%, 66%, 100%.

29 28 Simulation Results 0 Coop 50% Coop 66% Coop 100% Coop

30 29 Governance problem Summary Convergence of whose views? Convergence of whose views? for whose benefit? for whose benefit? As the simulation results show, there is a chance to achieve a scenario where, by means of cooperation between the N agents, their demands are attended As the simulation results show, there is a chance to achieve a scenario where, by means of cooperation between the N agents, their demands are attended N.B. There are many weak agents among the N, but there is also China, Brazil and some relevant independent NGO. N.B. There are many weak agents among the N, but there is also China, Brazil and some relevant independent NGO.

31 30 Conclusion on IG Through the L-V multiagent model, we arrive at the conclusion that to attain an active role in the Information Society, and therefore participate in policy decisions, N agents should cooperate among themselves Through the L-V multiagent model, we arrive at the conclusion that to attain an active role in the Information Society, and therefore participate in policy decisions, N agents should cooperate among themselves There is even some indication of the order of magnitude of the number of necessarily cooperating N agents in order to overthrow the O opinion/attitude and how long it takes There is even some indication of the order of magnitude of the number of necessarily cooperating N agents in order to overthrow the O opinion/attitude and how long it takes

32 31 CONCLUSIONS We are handling with problems where there is little data to be analyzed We are handling with problems where there is little data to be analyzed In both DD and IG cases simulation results lead to predictions which are clearly equivalent to the consequences that some social scientists have forecasted, in terms of theoretical explanations of phenomena that are actually comparable to those that are taking place within the Information Society. In both DD and IG cases simulation results lead to predictions which are clearly equivalent to the consequences that some social scientists have forecasted, in terms of theoretical explanations of phenomena that are actually comparable to those that are taking place within the Information Society. The modelization of the Information Society as a complex system provides insights about how the Digital Divide can be reduced and how the huge majority of weak members of the IS would influence the outcomes of the IG and, in so doing, allow the Internet Governance to be multilateral, transparent and democratic. The modelization of the Information Society as a complex system provides insights about how the Digital Divide can be reduced and how the huge majority of weak members of the IS would influence the outcomes of the IG and, in so doing, allow the Internet Governance to be multilateral, transparent and democratic. In fine, physics-like models appear to be if not extremely relevant, very much rewarding In fine, physics-like models appear to be if not extremely relevant, very much rewarding


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