Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

The Second International Seville Future- oriented Technology Analysis Seminar Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China: the Practice and its Impacts.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "The Second International Seville Future- oriented Technology Analysis Seminar Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China: the Practice and its Impacts."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Second International Seville Future- oriented Technology Analysis Seminar Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China: the Practice and its Impacts Mu Rongping Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences

2 Outline Introduction Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China Methodology for Technology Foresight Major Result of Delphi Survey Impact of the Research on Decision-making

3 Introduction National Goals of China well-off society in 2020 Quadruple GDP of the year 2000 by 2020 Industrialization Innovation-Driven Country Improve the capability of innovation Environment-friendly society Resource-conserving society

4 Introduction How to achieve the national goals? Improve capabilities Technological capability Innovation capability Priority setting To identify the technology fields with priority To identify the clustering technologies with priority

5 Introduction The purposes of the Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China To explore a set of systematical methods for technology foresight; To build the scenarios for China development in 2020 so as to identify technology demands; To conduct the Delphi Survey so as to set the priority of technologies; To establish the interactive platform for government-industry-university-academia; To foster the foresight culture in China.

6 Outline Introduction Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China Methodology for Technology Foresight Major Result of Delphi Survey Impact of the Research on Decision-making

7 Framework International Comparison of the Technology Foresight Activities Feasibility Study of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China Scheme for Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China Scheme Simulation Short-term Technology Forecasting (within 5 years) Long-term Technology Foresight based on Delphi Survey Scheme Revision

8 Framework Selecting Critical Technologies Making Related Policies International Comparison Statistics and Analyses Selecting & Tracking Methods Forecasting, Data-mining Comparing the Results of Forecasting and Delphi Survey Preparing Stage Implementing Stage Making Scheme Selecting Participants Choosing Topics Compiling Questionnaires The first - round survey The second - round survey The Scenario Building: identification for national demand for science and technology

9 Outline Introduction Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China Methodology for Technology Foresight Major Result of Delphi Survey Impact of the Research on Decision-making

10 Methodologies Scenario Building Visions of 2020 in China The Demand of Technology in the Comprehensive Well-off Society Globalization Society Industrialization Society Information Society Urbanization Society Consumption Society Circulation Society

11 Methodologies Generation of the Technology Topics scenario building The APEC Center for Technology Foresight DNA Analysis for Human Health in the Post-genomic Era [M] Published by: the APEC technology foresight center, national science and technology development agency Bangkok Thailand nomination by experts rolling revision technology topics of previous round Delphi Survey NISTEP REPORT No. 71 The Seventh Technology Foresight Future Technology in Japan toward the Year 2030 (Section 2: pp.121~261)[Z] Tokyo July

12 Methodologies Generation of the Technology Topics Note: EGF= Expert Group of Field EGSF= Expert Groups for Sub- Field

13 Methodologies Delphi Survey: field ICT and Electronics Energy Materials Resources and Environment Space manufacture Biology and Medicine Chemistry and chemical technology

14 Delphi: Divide Sub-fields ICT and Electronics 1. Computer 2. Man-machine conversation and intelligent dispose 3. Software 6. micro-electronics, photoelectron and MEMS 7. Display and store of information 9. network 10. Security technology of information 11. Broadcast and television 12. Applications of IT 4. Communication technology 5. Bio-Informatics 8. Information retrieval and sensors Methodologies

15 Delphi: Divide Sub-fields Energy 1. Coal, petroleum and natural gas 4. Electric power 6. Heat energy and mechanical energy 2. Renewable Energy 3. Nuclear energy 5. Hydrogen energy Methodologies

16 Delphi: Divide Sub-fields Materials 1. Macromolecule materials 4. Functional materials 6. Nano materials 2. Metal materials 3. Inorganic materials and Ceramic materials 5. Photoelectron materials Methodologies

17 Delphi: Divide Sub-fields Biology and Medicine 1. Platform technology 2. Measurement for bio- technique and bionimetic technology 5. Prevention and therapy disease 7. Stem-cell and regenerative medicine 8. Cognition and human behavior science 3. The process technology of biology catalyze and transform 4. Agriculture and environment 6. Discover and development of new medicines Methodologies

18 Generation of the Technology Topics: Stages elucidation widespread use practical usedevelopment Methodologies

19 Delphi Survey: Questionnaire Methodologies

20 ----- contribution to economy increase improve of quality of life contribute to the security system Importance Degree of familiar Very importantImportantImportant in somewhatunimportantTotal HighN 11 N 12 N 13 N 14 T1T1 MediumN 21 N 22 N 23 N 24 T2T2 LowN 31 N 32 N 33 N 34 T3T3 Don t konw N 41 N 42 N 43 N 44 T4T4 Methodologies Three importance indexes

21 Integrate three importance index Among them: :Index of contribution to economy increase :Index of improve the quality of life :Index of contribute to the security system Methodologies

22 Forecasted realization time of the topics: Among them: Q1 : Forecasted realization time corresponding to the response at the 25th percentile of all responses after they were arranged in chronological order from the earliest to the latest realization time. M : Forecasted realization time corresponding to the response at the 50th percentile. Q2 : Forecasted realization time corresponding to the response at the 75th percentile. Methodologies

23 Feasibility of the topics realization : Among them: : feasibility of the topics realization : infeasibility in technology realization : infeasibility in market realization Methodologies

24 : Index of research level of the topics in China : the number of experts who selected leader : the number of experts who selected international level : the number of experts who selected get behind Research level index of the topics in China : Among them: Methodologies

25 Outline Introduction Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China Methodology for Technology foresight Major Result of Delphi Survey Impact of the Research on Decision-making

26 Forecasted Realization Time of Technology Results

27 Top 10 : Integrated Index of Importance Results (1) The solar cell will be developed successfully, which transfer efficiency reaches as high as 50%; (2) The new technology about biological energy will be developed successfully, which can continuous produce ethanol with straw, biological diesel, hydrocarbon compound and so on; (3) The metal material obtains the large-scale use, which has nature of high intensity and light weight; (4) The most security and cheapest control technologies of large- scale electrical network obtains the widespread use; (5) The technologies about biology processing and mining for crude oil develop successfully;

28 Top 10 : Integrated Index of Importance Results (6) The anti-viral medicine with highly efficiency applies to clinical medicine widely; (7) The technologies about biochemistry, immunity, and gene etc. applies to food quarantine widely; (8) The important character gene which decide the yield, quality and resistance of crops obtains comprehensive annotation and get practical use with biological technology; (9) The 10nm processing technology obtains widespread use in the scale production, and integration rate of the integrated circuit achieves the 1000G transistor; (10) The defense and monitoring system of harmful biology will be established for public security.

29 Outline Introduction Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China Methodology for Technology foresight Major Result of Delphi Survey Impact of the Research on Decision-making

30 Impacts The Impact on the Scientific Community The experts network top scientists from four research fields --- more than 320 scientists from 32 sub-fields Technology Demands from the Construction of Well off Society top social scientists to participate in the forum

31 Impacts The Impact on Decision-making The strategic study of med-and long term plan for science and technology development The mid-and long term plan for science and technology development of CAS President Hu Jingtao mentioned to strengthen the technology foresight in his speech at the annual congress of academicians of the CAS and CAE in June 2004 the Ministry of Education, Shanghai and Beijing Municipality have used the results of Delphi survey

32 Impacts The Impact on the Public Understanding of Science and Technology

33 Impacts The Impact on the Public Understanding of Science and Technology The media such as the Science Times always pays attention to the study; The Journal of High-Technology & Industrialization has serialized the results of the Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China, and the interviews of research group; More than 574,000 websites concerning Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China (in Chinese) could be easily found with the search engine google; Xinhua News Agency has also reported some results of the Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China, which were cited by many other medias. Some readers even urge us to publish simplified version so as to ease the public understanding.

34 Contact to the speaker: Name: Mu Rongping Tel: Fax: Address: Zhongguancun Donglu NO. 55, Beijing, P.R. China Postcode: Website:


Download ppt "The Second International Seville Future- oriented Technology Analysis Seminar Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China: the Practice and its Impacts."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google