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Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO 25-26 OCT The Role of Technology in Cities of the Future.

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Presentation on theme: "Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO 25-26 OCT The Role of Technology in Cities of the Future."— Presentation transcript:

1 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT The Role of Technology in Cities of the Future

2 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT City Ranking Systems: Whats on our mind? Technology Pull: Visions of Cities and Urban Developers Technology Push: Visions of Technology Companies Challenges: Waste … Energy … Transport … Ageing … Missing Links and Recommendations: … A Brief Overview Elegant Ideas confront Messy Real World Complexity

3 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT City Ranking Systems: Whats on our mind? New Geography (Joel Kotkin): Ranking of US cities based on a weighted average of medium and ling term employment growth trends. discusses role of tele-cities and exurbs … Fast Company Magazine: A marketing, design and technology magazine that undertakes an annual surveys based on interviews and user perceptions of the most cities for that year. The exact criteria vary from year to year. It is increasingly global in scope. The most recent one includes candidates from the US and Canada, Latin America, Europe and Asia and Africa. There is a focus on dynamism, creativity and sustainability … the loose and unscientific format provides scope for recognizing surprises or current and emerging trends … The Milken Institute: This has carried out a variety of rankings over the years, one based on the role of Technology Parks and Science Parks in the growth of the city, and more recently a series on the growth of Metropolitan regions which is based on 5 year performance in terms of Job creation, Wage levels and Technology intensity of industrial activity … The results from 2010 survey are interesting in that of the 300 or so US metro areas included in the survey, the usual suspects dont rate very highly … 3 of top 5, 5 of the top 10, and 11 of the top 20 are in Texas!

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13 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT Technology Pull: Visions of Cities and Urban Developers The Venus Project of Jacques Fresco … 1995, The Future by Design, Zeitgeist Movement … The Archologies of Paolo Soleri … Cities in the Image of Man … Cosanti, Arcosanti … The Archibiotics of Vincent Callebaut … (LillyPad …) The Charter Cities of Paul Romer … The Aerotropolisof J. D. Kasarda and Greg Lindsey … They way well live next … Etc Ab-initio green city projects … Dongtang+, Masdar+, KAEC+… Existing city visions … Stockholm 2030, the Innovation City vision for Boston … More specific city systems … Retirement Communities … i.e. Sun-City Arizona … The Mega Float project in Japan … The Freedom Ship of … The Floating Houses of the Netherlands … (SE Asia, Peru …) The Vertical Gardens of Patrick Blanc … The Vertical Farms of Dickson Despommier … Preparation for off-world living The Eden Project, Biosphere 2, the ISS … The Ansari X-Prize, the Google X-Prize … the Isle of Man … The Vijay Govindarajan challenge … how to build a $700 house … The Acumen Fund …

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18 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT KAEC …

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20 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT The Dynamic Tower … to be built in Dubai

21 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT The Bionic Tower … to be built in Shanghai (?)

22 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT To be built in Korea … ?

23 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT The dragon-fly … a metabolic farm for urban agriculture

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36 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT The Vertical Gardens of Patrick Blanc Epiphany: 2,500+ of the 8,000+ plant species in Malaysia dont need soil to grow … they only need water with the right kind of nutrients and some kind of physical support … His vertical gardens: Grow inside or outside, In artificial or natural light, Capture carbon, Clean the air, Cool buildings in summer, Warm them in winter …

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38 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT ARCHIBIOTICs of Vincent Callibaut

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40 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT City Garden Farms … in Portland Oregon, consists of 12 back-yards … NMYC has more than 600 small farms (large vegetable gardens) … Victory gardens … Whitehouse garden … urban allotments … unused land … gardens … borders … parks … bag-gardens …. Window sills and verandas … … Farms produce vegetable and fruit as well as poultry, eggs and tilapia … also mushrooms, mealworms and other insects, pets, algae etc … supplied to small shops, homes, drop-off points, restaurants and sandwich bars, office kitchens and schools … cellars … shared greenhouses … private … government owned infrastructure … The hidden cost of food is transport … Logistics, storage and processing services … Leasing or using someone elses land … in exchange for money, produce or the satisfaction … a sense of community involvement … Food delivery and life-style support services … A 1 acre urban farm can produce of the order of 250,000 USD per year Despommier claims that a 21 story urban farm can produce as much as 288 acres of land … building it would cost 84M Euros… Government could encourage … support … sourcing produce from urban farms for own cafeterias … allow income from small plots tax free … (renting …)

41 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT Vertical farms will allow us to: Grow food 24 hours a day, 365 days a year Protect crops from unpredictable and harmful weather Re-use water collected from the indoor environment Provide jobs for local residents Eliminate use of pesticides, fertilizers, or herbicides Drastically reduce dependence on fossil fuels Prevent crop loss due to disease or pests Stop agricultural runoff Meanwhile, Dickson Despommier, a public-health professor at Columbia University, is pushing a way to get population centers to produce a lot more of the food they consume. His Vertical Farm Project envisions hydroponic skyscrapers that would be as productive as 588 acres (238 hectares) of land. A 21-story farm is expected to cost about $84 million to build. That's a lot of cabbage to grow some lettuce, which is perhaps why the first tower in the works is in Las Vegas.

42 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT Biosphere II … Houston we have a problem (with CO2 and O2)!

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47 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT SECURITY … (Policing +) War Zone Amsterdam Safe Haven … 2011

48 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT TRANSPORT …

49 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT The DIMENSIONS of Transport … Modes of Transport Trains, Buses and Trams Taxis Boats Scooters and Segways Bikes and the No. 11 (walking) Skateboards and roller-blades … Robots … Logistic services – pick-ups, trailers, vans, trucks, lorries Emergency services – fire, police and ambulance Infrastructure for parking and storage Infrastructure fueling, cleaning, repairs and maintenance Infrastructure for sale and resale, recovery and recycling Infrastructure Roads, rails, bridges, tunnels, footpaths and parks Parking and storage (impact of car sharing and public bikes …) Fueling, cleaning, repairs and maintenance Retail infrastructure for sale, resale, recovery and recycling Users of the Transport System Children Animals Parents Workers Businesses Retirees Visitors Occasions of Use Day-time Night-time Weekends Holidays Summer Winter

50 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT Technologies, Business Models and Innovation Strategies … In many ways a SUBSTITUTION game Substitute: Private transport with public transport … Cars, buses and trams with cycling or walking … Owning with sharing, leasing, hiring … Fossil fuels with bio-diesel, bio-ethanol, electricity, H2, fuel cells, solar power … Motors with hybrids … and tanks with batteries … Battery recharging with battery swapping (Better Place by Shay Agasi)… Faster + longer-distance with slower + shorter distance … Heavy with light … single- and two-person vehicles, short-commute vehicles … Steel with composites, new materials and designs … Four wheels with two wheels or no wheels … Commuting with telecommuting … medicine with telemedicine … Long commutes with short commutes … (business-hubs and shared workspaces …) Bike stands with free-standing bikes … (GPS technologies … SoBi of New York … 30%) Products with services (the P&G Mr. Clean car-wash …) Drivers with robots … (that work through the night to relieve congestion by day) Uniform taxing with congestion charges, carbon taxes etc … Car-only days with car-free days … Car-only roads with a network of pedestrian or car-free / bike-only streets … BENEFITS in terms of: Noise, air-quality, public-health (obesity, diabetes, loneliness), work-life balance, free-time, commuter safety, energy security, employment …

51 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT What Happens to a Barrel of Crude? The end of fossil-fuel is not just about energy, it is about chemicals, textiles, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics … 10% - Processing 40% - Fuel 50% - Other stuff Ammonia, antiseptics, bubble gum, crayons, denture adhesive, eyeglass frames, fertilizer, floor polish, guitar strings, heart valves, ice chests, insect repellant, life preservers, liquid detergent, mascara paint, ping-pong paddles, plastic beverage containers, roller-skate wheels, sneakers, synthetic fibers, telephones, tobacco pouches, volleyballs …

52 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT Water, Waste, Sewage Industry Eco-System … Household waste, old shoes and clothes,, bottles, cans, newspapers, TVs, PCs, mobile phones … farms, gardens, building sites, restaurants and kitchens, food processing companies, paper companies, furniture, and accessories, retailers (packaging), workshops, abattoirs, human sewage … Fertilizers, feed, composts, soils, bio-gas, bio-diesel, bio-ethanol, green chemistry precursors, metals (steel, iron, zinc, copper, gold, platinum, aluminium, cadmium, lithium, rare-earth metals …), glass, plastics, paper, second hand objects, … drinking water, grey-water … biomass … Storage, disassembly … co-digesters, bio-reactors … enzymes, micro- organisms … (Craig Venter vision …)

53 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT Water, Waste, Sewage Industry Eco-System … II The OLD ROLE for the public sector: Organize the pipes, drains, dumps, and garbage collection … Keep and maintain the pipes clean … (kitchen waste) Regulate through legislation and make some money from fines… The NEW ROLE is to encouraging the creation of whole new industries eco-system … garbage meets investment, entrepreneurship and job creation … The PAYBACK 1: Jobs 2: Security 3: Clean Environment

54 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT Missing Links and Recommendations I Vision Trends: Sustainable … Walkable... Green … Green-field … (start over with people not just buildings …) Comprehensive / naïve … single-issue / pragmatic … Single minded … (soviet model … no role for creativity … multiple minds …) Hi-end real estate oriented towards well off knowledge professionals … No place for poor, ageing, retired, modest income … (Vijay Govindarajan) Beyond The Future by Design… from Designs to Design PRINCIPLES … Missing links: Affordable living (cost + mark-up versus design for affordability) Ageing … (20%+ over 65 in several EU countries … going towards 40%+) Shrinking size … Shrinking income … increased financial burden … What will be the impact on the building industry (jobs, GDP etc)? What to do about it?

55 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT Missing Links and Recommendations II Challenges 1: Visions that explicitly address SOCIAL and DEMOGRAPHIC issues of: Qualitative growth … Quantitative shrinking … Ageing … Real cost of living … 2: That feed into visions for the role of TECHNOLOGY that inform: Systems of industrial actors … New industry development … In a fast-changing sectors … That require innovation on many levels (not just technology) That require new business models, partnerships and investment … 3: Move BEYOND the charismatic, single issue, hero-mayor … models for the future city management task …and how it is distributed throughout the administration … how the management of a city might extend to the region … (Mayfield) 4: Change from a culture of control to supporting ENTREPRENEURIAL activity … address silos … develop the capability to collaborate, cross boundaries, solve problems …

56 Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO OCT Missing Links and Recommendations III 1: Technology is a key component of all aspects of the city … it evolves very quickly … it lives in systems that need to change over time … there are no single-best off-the-shelf solutions … (Technology forecasting, technology assessment, experimentation, piloting, evaluation and learning … not just at components or solutions but evolving socio-economic eco-systems)1 1: All cities need a vision to guide their development … this vision needs to include technology … most existing visions are either naïve or single-issue visions … a more savvy integrative approach is needed (the role of a CTO, Foresight, systems thinking …) 1: Technology alone is not enough, science is needed too … (demography, knowledge of how we live and work, how to live better, what people can afford … BOP markets for advanced but ageing economies) 2: The gap between city-vision and execution of that city-vision is innovation … not just technological innovation, but innovation in terms of management and organization, planning, collaboration, marketing, the business-models of the city, the way the city learns and incorporates learning into its actions … (corporate universities, thematic clusters (Advancity), the EIT (Climate KIC), Living Labs (ENoLL), the X-Prize …) 2: Innovation cannot be bought or delegated it needs to be actively planned and managed … it needs a culture of innovation to work … (Lisbon, innovation procurement, standards etc …) 2: Innovation provides opportunities for job creation … this should influence the way the city achieves its goals … with or without entrepreneurs, start-ups and new jobs … (life in the city entrepreneurship programmes, the city-incubator, the city venture fund) 3: We cannot continue to rely only on charismatic single–issue hero-mayors … most if not all city managers need to develop a vision, provide themselves with the tools to anticipate and manage change … exploit opportunities for harnessing change to create prosperity … (city management as a comprehensive set of disciplines, education and training initiatives …)


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