1. Cosmic rays, clouds and climate change Cosmic rays and climate –Definitions –Empirical evidence Experimental efforts and results –Microphysical mechanism? Impact on the real atmosphere –Natural experiments with Earth (Forbush decreases) –Ocean heat content (1950 – 2010) Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space, DTU

2. What are Cosmic Rays? Heliosphere, Cosmic Rays and Solar Activity

3. Cosmic ray shower (Movie) About 70 muons/s /m 2 at the Earths surface In 24 hours about 12 million muons goes through a human body

4. Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago The formation of stalagmites in northern Oman has recorded past northward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone3, whose northward migration stops near the southern shoreline of Arabia in the present climate U. Neff et al., Nature 411, 290 - 293 (2001)

5. ”Since everybody thought that the continous crop faliure was caused by witches from devilish hate, the whole contry stood up for their eradication” Johann Linden Travis ca. 1590 Cosmic rays and climate over the last millennium Solar irradiance too small, amplification needed!

6. How can STARS influence Climate? Net effect of clouds is to cool the Earth by about 30 W/m 2

7. Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, JASTP 1997, Svensmark, PRL 1998, Marsh & Svensmark, PRL, 2000. (update 2005) Link between Low Cloud Cover and Galactic Cosmic Rays? Solar cycle variation ISCCP IR Low cloud data Calibration? 10 0 -10 -20

8. If the link is between cosmic rays and clouds, what would the mechanism be? Empirical evidence for a relation between cosmic rays and climate

9. Cloud Drop CCN (Cloud Condensation Nuclei) CN (Condensation Nuclei) UCN (Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei) 0.1  m 10  m0.01  m0.001  m Aerosol formation and growth Size H 2 SO 4 & Water & Organic Vapors Possible link between clouds and cosmic rays Nucleation process is unsolved An aerosol is a small cluster of molecules floating in the air

10. Cloud Drop CCN (Cloud Condensation Nuclei) CN (Condensation Nuclei) UCN (Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei) 0.1  m 10  m0.01  m0.001  m Aerosol formation and growth Size H 2 SO 4 & Water Vapors What is the importance of IONS ? - + Cosmic Ray Ionization &

11. Gamma source Muon detector Radon detector SO 2 O 3 H 2 O Atmospheric conditions! SKY experiment 2002 - 2006

12. Steady state experiment 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 q (cm -3 s -1 ) H 2 SO 4 concentration ~ 2*10 8 (cm -3 ) O 3 ~ 25 ppb SO 2 ~ 300 ppt RH ~ 35% Svensmark et al. Proc. R. Soc. A (2007) 463, 385–396

13. Does it work in the real atmosphere? Statements 1.There are always plenty of CCN in the atmosphere a few more will not matter. 2.It is not important.

14. Coronal Mass Ejections N atural experiments for testing the GCR-atmosphere link SOHO satellite, one month of observation

15. Haloween event 2003

16. A Classic Forbush Decrease

17. AERONET, SSM/I, MODIS and ISCCP data for 5 strongest Forbush decreases Aerosols Clouds Liquid water Liquid cloud fraction Low Clouds Svensmark, Bondo and Svensmark, GRL

18. Cloud Drop CCN (Cloud Condensation Nuclei) CN (Condensation Nuclei) UCN (Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei) 0.1  m 10  m0.01  m0.001  m Size H 2 SO 4 & Water Vapors Ion induced formation of aerosols - + Typical gas phase Aerosol Cloud formation and growth From solar activity to cosmic ray ionization to aerosols and liquid-water clouds, a causal chain appears to operate on a global scale

19. Ocean Heat Content 1950 – 2010 (0-700m) Levitus et al. Domingues et al. Ishii and M. Kimoto

20. Ocean Heat Content 1) Volcanoes, (aerosol index) 2) Solar Activity, (cosmic ray variation) 3) Regime shift in 1977, (natural variability) 4) Net antropogenic, (residual) H (Heat Content) FF Simple Model Modelled forcings

21. Ocean Heat Content Svensmark Volcanoes

22. Solar influence Year Solar cycle amplitude consistent with the findings of Nir Shaviv Forcing Heat Content Svensmark

23. Regime Shift in 1977

24. HadAT2 tropospheric temperatures (0 – 10 km) Regime shift 850hPa 700hPa 500hPa 300hPa 200hPa

25. Ocean Heat Content Domingues et al. Levitus et al. Ishii & Kimoto If solar activity and the regime shift is ignored the net anthropogenic contribution increases with a factor 2-5

26. Conclusion Variation in cosmic rays are associated with changes in Earths climate. Strong empirical evidence. (not discussed: long time scales e.g. million of years) Evidence suggest that clouds are the key player. New insight to the physical mechanism has been demonstrated experimentally and observationally Involving ions and aerosol formation Involving ions and aerosol formation Linking to clouds and thereby the energy budget of the Earth Linking to clouds and thereby the energy budget of the Earth Observations further suggest that a large fraction of clouds are influenced by ionization. (6% change in liquid water for a 10 % change in ionization)Observations further suggest that a large fraction of clouds are influenced by ionization. (6% change in liquid water for a 10 % change in ionization) A large fraction of the recent increase in ocean heat content could be due to natural causes: Solar influence and a regime shift in 1977 The theory ”cosmic rays and climate” is alive and strong

27. Thanks: Torsten Bondo Jacob Svensmark Martin Enghoff Nigel D. Marsh Nigel Calder Jens Olaf Pedersen Ulrik I. Uggerhøj Sean Paling