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Institute of Radiation Protection Conclusion of the 5 th EU Framework Projects BIOCLIM and BioMoSA for Performance Assessments of Radioactive Waste Disposals.

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Presentation on theme: "Institute of Radiation Protection Conclusion of the 5 th EU Framework Projects BIOCLIM and BioMoSA for Performance Assessments of Radioactive Waste Disposals."— Presentation transcript:

1 Institute of Radiation Protection Conclusion of the 5 th EU Framework Projects BIOCLIM and BioMoSA for Performance Assessments of Radioactive Waste Disposals G. Pröhl GSF-National Research Centre for Environment and Health, Neuherberg Germany D. Texier ANDRA – Agence Nationale pour la gestion des Déchets Radioactif, France EURADWASTE04, Luxembourg, 31 March 2004

2 Institute of Radiation Protection Underlying problem Radioactive waste needs to be isolated from the environment and humans Regulatory standards –Adequate isolation of radioactive from biosphere and humans –Limitation of possible radiological consequences due to hypothetical releases of radionuclides to the environment Demonstration of compliance Biosphere changes with time: Impact of climate

3 Institute of Radiation Protection BioMoSA Biosphere Models for Safety Assessment of Radioactive Waste Disposal based on the Application of the Reference Biosphere Methodology 2-year EU 5 th framework project December November participants –GSF, Germany (Coordinator) –CIEMAT, Spain –NRPB, UK –SCK CEN, Belgium –Studsvik EcoSafe, Sweden –University Veszprem, Hungary

4 EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas BIOCLIM Modelling sequential BIOsphere systems under CLIMate change for radioactive waste disposal Objectives and scopes D. Texier ANDRA - Agence Nationale pour la gestion des Déchets Radioactifs, France.

5 Institute of Radiation Protection Objectives of BioMoSA Development of site-specific biosphere models for 5 sites in Europe using the BIOMASS Reference Biosphere Methodology Comparison of structure, results and uncertainties Development of a generic biosphere assessment tool Compare site-specific and generic models Identify relevant site-specific and generic features, events and processes

6 Institute of Radiation Protection BioMoSA – assumptions and endpoints Assessment as realistic as possible Present day conditions –Technology, society, living habits Radionuclides (incl. daughters) –Cl-36, Se-79, Tc-99, I-129, Cs-135, Ra-226, Pa-231, Np-237, U-238, Pu-239 Time frame –90 % of equilibrium in soil achieved Annual effective doses –infants and adults –Uncertainty of doses

7 Institute of Radiation Protection Sites considered Hungary: –Intensive agriculture –Cold winters, hot summers –Pronounced rain deficit during the vegetation period Spain –Extensive land use –Mild winters, hot and very dry summers Belgium, Germany –Intensive agriculture –Mild winters, cool summers –Low to moderate precipitation deficit Sweden –Extensive agriculture –Cold winters and cool summers, –Little precipitation deficit

8 Institute of Radiation Protection

9 Geosphere Biosphere Interface Belgium: well, river Germany: well Hungary: well lake Spain: well, dam, river, sub-surface soil Sweden: well, lake, sub-surface soil Generic: all possible interfaces

10 Institute of Radiation Protection Example: Use of radioactively contaminated well water: Exposure Pathways Ingestion –Drinking water for humans –Watering cattle –Irrigation of crops –Fish consumption Inhalation of contaminated dust External exposure –Contaminated arable land –Contaminated river/sediments

11 Institute of Radiation Protection Model setup –Site-specific parameters Exposure / Activity in well/surface water –[Sv/a per Bq/m³]

12 Institute of Radiation Protection Normalized exposure to adults (mSv/a per Bq/m³)

13 Institute of Radiation Protection Well scenario, stochastic calculations: Ratio 95/5-percentile of adult exposure

14 Institute of Radiation Protection Generic model Development of a generic model –Contains all FEPs –Contains all Geosphere-Biosphere-Interfaces Comparison against site-specific models Identification of important pathways Suggestions for model simplification

15 Institute of Radiation Protection German site, well scenario 5 th and 95 th percentile infant total dose

16 Institute of Radiation Protection Conclusions I Drinking water dominating In general, little differences between sites Uncertainty –Ratio 95/5 percentile around a factor of 10 Some parameters need reconsideration –Cl-36, Se-79, I-129 Root uptake Migration Transfer to milk and meat Parameters partly conflicting

17 Institute of Radiation Protection Conclusions II Generic model provides acceptable agreement with site-specific model Larger uncertainties for releases to –Lakes –Marine –Deep soil Transfer is more complex –More site-specific –More difficult to generalize –Poor data

18 BIOCLIM A 3-years European project under the 5th Framework Program October December 2003 Coordinator : ANDRA 12 participants (UK, B, D, CZ, SP, FR) Technical Secretariat : ENVIROS Quantisci (UK) 5 Work Packages 13 deliverables : available on the project web site EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas

19 BIOCLIM : Objectives To provide a scientific basis and practical methodology for assessing the potential impacts of long-term climate change on Biosphere characteristics in the context of radiological Performance Assessments (PAs) For 5 regions of interest in Europe Over the next 1 million years Quantitative scenarios of climate changes numerically produced Narrative descriptions of future Biosphere changes (states + transitions) EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas

20 BIOCLIM : Regions of interest Bure (48.6°N; 5.7°E) Central England (51.6°-54.8°N; 0-2.8°W ) Toledo Area (38°-41°51 N; 1°30-6°30 W) Padul Peat Bog (37°N; 3°40 W) Cullar-Baza Basin (37°20 -37°55 ; 2°20 -2°50 W ) Czech Republic (48°55N-49°28N; 15°E-15°35E ) EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas

21 Representation of Biosphere Systems Changes: States and Transitions Climate Biota Soils Human TopographyWater Bodies Climate Biota Soils Human Topography Water Bodies Present day Biosphere Future Biosphere T1T1 T2T2 T3T3 EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas

22 BIOCLIM : Work Packages WP1 : Consolidation of the Needs WP2 : Hierarchical strategy = snapshots WP3 : Integrated strategy = sequences Global scale Regional scale WP4 : Biosphere systems description (constant + transitional) WP5 : Dissemination of results EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas

23 Numerical Experiments more likely situations – not extreme Transient sequences of future climate & vegetation patterns (WP3) The next 1000kyr (zoom on +200 kyr) for 3 different CO 2 scenarios : Scenario 1: natural CO 2 variations only Scenarios 2 & 3: natural CO 2 variations + Fossil Fuel Contribution Snapshots of future climate & vegetation patterns (WP2) A very near future : high atmospheric [CO 2 ] with or without ice sheets A super interglacial (67kyr AP) : high insolation, high atmospheric [CO 2 ], no ice sheets A glacial maximum (178kyr AP) : low [CO 2 ], large ice sheets EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas

24 An example of climate scenario at regional scale : The French natural climate evolution EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas Simulation of future climate evolution at global scale + Reconstruction of past regional climate conditions Temperate oceanic Climate classes : (Køppen/Trewartha classification) Boreal Periglacial Toundra DOWNSCALLING METHOD

25 Narrative descriptions of future biosphere changes EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas D escriptions of the potential next 200 ka biosphere system evolution developped for each region of interest. Possible impact of anthropogenic driven climate perturbation. combined transient / snap-shots climate simulations, and the regional environmental paleo reconstructions. Future states of biosphere identified. Transitions between these states described. Importance of accounting for transition time laps discussed. => See BIOCLIM D10-12 report

26 Conclusions (1) EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas BIOCLIM provides a comprehensive methodology to integrate climate-driven environmental change to biosphere modelling of performance assessments BIOCLIM has provided many data for climate modelling for Europe – these may used as source if climate change should be included in performance assessments National organisations may complement these results with their own studies Several climate-change scenarios can be combined to give a number of biosphere states and transitions for analysis

27 Conclusions (2) EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas States and transitions provide an appropriate framework for developing structured descriptions of environmental change The BIOMASS methodology was found to be appropriate for characterising biosphere states State descriptions may be the basis for biosphere models Radiological evaluation of the states and transitions are needed by setting up appropriate simulation models

28 Conclusions (3) EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas More work remains to identify key aspects of transitions for performance assessment purposes and show their integration in assessment models This framework has been applied only to the biosphere – it would be equally applicable to the geosphere It would be useful to extend the methodology to include other human and Earth system processes that cause environmental change. Some aspects are being studied in the BIOPROTA Project

29 For more information, please contact : EURADWASTE04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas Delphine Texier, Andra, France (Co-ordinator of BIOCLIM and WP 1 & 5), Marie-France Loutre, UCL/ASTR, Belgium (Co-ordinator of WP2), Didier Paillard, CEA/LSCE, France (Co-ordinator of WP3), Paul Degnan, NIREX, UK (Co-ordinator of WP4),


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