1. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST Coordinator: Maria Ana V Baptista mabaptista@dec.isel.ipl.pt NEAREST PARTNER - FFCUL PORTUGAL

2. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST WP7 – Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Description: 1.Prepare the first inundation maps covering a portion of Algarve coast, based on off-shore tsunami sources. 2.Map inundation line will be based on run-up computations for the worst case scenario. 3.Cooperation with TRANSFER in the analysis and comparison of modelling strategies.

3. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST WP7 – Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Partners: ISMAR-BO, FFCUL, INGV, UGR, CNRST Partners involvment (mm)

4. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST WP7 – Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Partners: ISMAR-BO, FFCUL, INGV, UGR, CNRST Task 7.1 - Collation of the New Bathymetric Data with a dedicated cruise Task 7.2 - Implementation of a numerical tsunami model for SW Portugal Task 7.3 - Simulation of the 1755 tsunami in the Boca do Rio area Task 7.4 - Production of inundation maps for Lagos-Sagres Task 7.5 - Model parametrization and validation.

5. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST WP7 – Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Tsunami source - Okada’s equations (seismic sources) Tsunami propagation: BRT Backward Ray Tracing experiments to locate tsunami sources: 1975, 1755 Lisbon event, 1761 NA event 1975 tsunami source location – Collaboration CNRST

6. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST Shallow Water models: Linear and Non Linear with and without Boussinesq (dispersion problems) Linear Tsunami N1 – Time project (by Imamura) – 1722 Algarve event Linear SH + Boussinesq 1969.02.28 Non Linear SH (Swan code, by Mader1988, 2001) 1969,1975 GF tsunami, 1755 event WP7 – Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal

7. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST Task 7.1 - Collation of the New Bathymetric Data with a dedicated cruise Task 7.2 - Implementation of a numerical tsunami model for SW Portugal Task 7.3 - Simulation of the 1755 tsunami in the Boca do Rio area Task 7.4 - Production of inundation maps for Lagos-Sagres Task 7.5 - Model parametrization and validation.

8. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST 1.Bathymetric data from all the swath bathymetry surveys made in the Cadiz area will be collated into a single grid with 200x200 m cell size. 2.In a few locations close to the shore (e.g., Boca do Rio) a 50 m DEM grid will be created, merging topographic data on-land with available detailed surveys off-shore.. 3. In some cases, new data can be acquired, to complete the study area Until now we’ve used Smith&Sandwell, Gebco and local bathy. maps WP7 – Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Task 7.1 - Collation of the New Bathymetric Data with a dedicated cruise

9. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST 1.Open sea propagation will be modeled with SWAN code. Initial perturbation of the seafloor will be computed using an elastic half space approach. The effect of considering non- uniform slip distributions (Geist and Dmowska, 1999; Gutscher et al.,2006) will be analized. 2.The influence of bathymetry on the elastic deformation will be also evaluated, particularly for sources located in areas of steep topography. 3.Propagation close to the shore will be computed using nested grids, with 250/50 m resolution, and taking into account run-up. WP7 – Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Task 7.2 - Implementation of a numerical tsunami model for SW Portugal

10. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST 1.Propagation close to the shore will be computed using nested grids, with 250/50 m resolution, and taking into account run-up. Problems Datum collation Grid Nesting

11. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST

12. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST 1.Calculation of the 1755 run-up&run in distance, integrating and extrapolating existing sedimentological observations, described in WP6. The comparison between the location of the 1755 tsunami deposits in- land and numerical model predictions will be used to calibrate the modelling methodology; 2.Sensitivity analysis of the dependence of inundation with general characteristics of the source. The variety of potential tsunami sources within the complex EU-AF plate boundary must be handled to account for the different risk scenarios; 3.Adjustment of roughness parameters in the model. Some level of parameterization must be made for inundation computations. We will use Boca do Rio as a case study and will extrapolate its conclusions to similar situations along the SW Iberian Coast. WP7 – Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Task 7.3 - Simulation of the 1755 tsunami in the Boca do Rio area

13. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST 1.During this project the main goal is to be able to reproduce run-up and flooding at southern Portugal, Sagres-Lagos (Algarve) 2.Inundation maps will be computed for the “worst case” scenario, as given by historical records and geological constraints. 3.we will concentrate on the significant coast segment, integrating a high level of detail on topography, construction and soil use. High density tourist resorts close to the shore will be specifically considered. In some cases, new data can be acquired, to complete the study area. WP7 – Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Task 7.4 - Production of inundation maps for Lagos-Sagres

14. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST 1.Elaboration and correlation of pressure gauge and sea floor motion data and use to produce initial condition for propagation models. Until now Okada elastic half space eqs have been used. Is this enough? Can we improve that? 2. Numerical evaluation of the use of different sets of initial conditions in tsunami propagation models (geological source or rupture geometry). 3. Within the cooperation between NEAREST and TRANSFER, we will compare predictions from different modelling approaches, in what concerns risk assessment. TRANSFER G CADIZ; In some cases, new data can be acquired, to complete the study area. WP7 – Modeling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Task 7.5 - Model parametrization and validation.

15. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST WP7 – Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Partners: ISMAR-BO, FFCUL, INGV, UGR, CNRST TIME TABLE

16. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST WP7 – Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Partners: ISMAR-BO, FFCUL, INGV, UGR, CNRST DELIVERABLES 1.New topo-bathymetric grid of the Algarve with high resolution selected areas and cruise report (month 11) 2.Implementation of a numerical tsunami propagation and run-up model for SW Portugal (month 17) 3.Simulation of the 1755 tsunami in the Boca de Rio area (month 29) 4.Inundation maps for Lagos-Sagres segment of the Algarve coast (month 32) 5.Tsunami Model Validation and sensitivity analysis (month 35)

17. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST WP7 – Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Partners: ISMAR-BO, FFCUL, INGV, UGR, CNRST MILESTONES Tsunami Propagation and Run up Model for SW Algarve validation

18. FFCUL, PORTUGALBologna 9 -11 Oct 2006 NEAREST Participants input? ISMAR-BO, FFCUL, INGV, UGR, CNRST Needs: Cooperation with TRANSFER in modelling criteria. Worst cenarios versus probability inundation maps)