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C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Transportation Power Information & Communications Health Lighting Services Automation.

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Presentation on theme: "C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Transportation Power Information & Communications Health Lighting Services Automation."— Presentation transcript:

1 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Transportation Power Information & Communications Health Lighting Services Automation & Control Dietmar Theis Siemens AG Corporate Technology München dietmar.theis@siemens.com Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020 : Developing scenarios for future technologies and food for thought about future lifeworlds

2 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Outline Pictures of the Future I I & C, Transportation, Health Pictures of the Future II Cross-sectional areas : Materials, Services Summary We need both, Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020 Introduction Siemens: Future is a fascinating challenge Horizons2020 Two scenarios for Europe

3 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Information and Communications Medical Transportation Automation and Control Power Lighting 4.2 13.7 12.0 7.6 18.6 16.8 External sales in billions of euros in fiscal year 2004/05 excluding Other Operations, Siemens Financial Services (SFS) and Siemens Real Estate (SRE) Broad scope of business (6 business areas, 11 groups + SFS, SRE) Global presence (in more than 190 countries) 13% 22% 27% 36% 462,000 2% 75.4 bn 12% 21% 33% 25% 13% 8% Asia-Pacific The Americas Europe (without Germany) Germany other countries Sales Siemens – Global Network of Innovation (1) Employees

4 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. … more than 50% for software (about 30,000 software engineers worldwide) R&D expenditure in 2005: 5.2 billion (6.8% of sales) … Source: Siemens AG, CD S MI – 11/05 R&D expenditures in billions of euros Groups Corporate Technology Siemens – Global Network of Innovation (2) 1 USD= 0.78612 EUR 1 Yen= 0.00734 EUR 1 SEK= 0.10894 EUR 1 KRW= 0.00076 EUR Automation and Control TransportationPower Information and Communications Lighting others Medical 19% 9% 21% 14% 30% 4% 3% 95% 5% Matsushita Bosch Hitachi Siemens Nokia IBM Sony Samsung HP Toshiba Philips GE 4.2 3.7 2.9 5.2 2.9 3.8 4.6 2.7 2.5 2.0 2.1 NEC Fujitsu 0.4 1.7 Dell

5 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Prediction is hard, especially if it´s about the future Niels Bohr (1885 - 1962) Nobel laureate in physics 1922 I am interested in the future, because that´s where I am going to spend the rest of my life George Burns (1896 - 1996) US actor

6 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Future designs VISION (desired future; mission a means to approach the vision) TREND (forseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation; expert knowledge) FORECAST / PROGNOSIS (quantifies time and degree of use of trends; expert knowledge) SCENARIOS (comprehensive approach, covers multiple trends and their mutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible futures STRATEGIC SCENARIOS (operational preparation for the future, quantified options) COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS (intended for public discussion, qualitative aspects of alternative future designs)

7 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Description of a comprehensive scenario Identification of business opportunities and new functionalities Consideration of regional aspects Development of mid/long term roadmaps year 0+ 4..7 y.+ 10..15 y. Current Business Extrapolation Market data Multi Generation Product Planning Application & technology roadmaps Scenario development Regional socio- economic scenarios Concepts: products or services New functionalities & technologies Retropolation & Consolidation Filtering & matching Development of seamless roadmaps 2012-2020 Input for strategic support Fit of both approaches Influential factors Resources Politics Economy Technology Environment Society Individuals Pictures of the Future (PoF): Aims and Methodology

8 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Pictures of the Future (PoF) : Team and project structure for one segment Core team : 3…5 professionals of different background (engineering, science, economics, psychology, sociology…) Project team : supports core team for a limited time (project duration for redesign of a Picture of the Future in one business segment three to four months). Project team can cover up to 10..12 persons, including experts from operating divisions, from academia, from public administration and research institutes Project leader is member of core team and usually a senior expert in the field analysed PoF project teams derive their comprehensive scenarios from expert interviews, own studies and simulations as well as from numerous published external sources

9 Methodology for Horizons2020 (TNS Infratest) Communication scenario with two distinct future designs Life areas selected: The political arena (incl. media) Society (values, education,health, mobility..) The economy (labor market, corporate sector..) The environment (awareness, food..) Technology (general development) Definition of descriptors (metrics describing developments using pairs of terms) 116 Europ. experts selected critical (=follows different courses in development) descriptors and expressed their degree of optimism regarding the future

10 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. "Pictures of the Future" and "Horizons 2020" complement each other in providing holistic scenarios about the long-term future 5...10 years Time Horizon 10... 20 years CustomersSociety Markets Focus Individual TechnologiesValues Technology Planning Communication Business Opportunities Benefit Discussion Communication Impulses Corporate Technology Driver Corporate Communications Transportation Power Health Services Information & Communications Automation & Control

11 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Outline Pictures of the Future I I & C, Transportation, Health Pictures of the Future II Cross-sectional areas : Materials, Services Summary We need both, Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020 Introduction Siemens: Future is a fascinating challenge Horizons2020 Two scenarios for Europe

12 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. : Detailed Description of All Relevant Trends of Our Business Segments CSocio-economic trends society life of work CMarket trends size / growth structure geographical CCustomer / business trends value chains / networks company structure processes CTechnological trends strategic importance multiple impact disruptive Transportation Health Power Automation & Control Information & Communications

13 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Picture of the Future Information and Communication

14 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Ad-hoc set-up and self-organization of services, devices and infrastructure Embedded, programmable communication devices, appropriate displays and intelligent tags Context awareness with respect to e.g. time, location, social environments, personal preferences, activities Pervasive Computing Combines Situation Awareness with Ubiquitous Computing Power and Network Access Smart labels and tags 2,50 V 80µA Fibers for Power Electronic Communication MEMS Body area networks and devices

15 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. New Technologies are Emerging in the Areas of Nanotechnology, Biotechnology and New Materials Further integration and miniaturization of computing devices through MEMS Molecular electronics to improve storage and to develop bio-transistors, brain-machine interfaces, or new haptic interfaces and displays Optical and quantum computing principles will lead to nearly unlimited bandwidths and massively parallel computing Single walled nanotube IBM millipede memory Protein based memory

16 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. © Siemens AG, CT SM Picture of the Future Transportation

17 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Smart Traffic Management Increases Infrastructure Efficiency © Siemens AG, CT SM Specific Transportation Trends: Cost Reduction in Rail Operation Efficiency in Road Utilization Gate-free, Electronic Fare Management systems Automatic Passenger Counting solutions Automated, demand-oriented systems for train operation Advanced highway maintenance planning systems Infrastructural systems to support collision avoidance Smart, cost-efficient systems for traffic detection Advanced planning and control systems for Traffic Management

18 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y Health Patient-Centric Healthcare Integrated Services Theranostics Bio-, Nano-, Info- Technologies © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved.

19 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Personalized Healthcare Shift towards proactive, predictive medicine in the ambulatory/home setting Patient-Centric Healthcare Medicine will become more personalized with greater patient-empowerment Mobile Healthcare and Wearable Sensors Intelligent Personal Assistants Virtual Systems Integrated Services A globally integrated healthcare infrastructure will change the business Non-Traditional Care Settings Digital Infrastructure Outsourcing

20 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Molecular Medicine Diagnostics and Therapeutics at the Molecular Level Bio-, Nano-, Info- Technologies From providing reactive treatment after symptoms appear to a proactive, predictive discipline that treats and prevents disease before it occurs Bio-Medical Knowledge Fusion Molecular Diagnostics Personalized Medicine Theranostics Medical imaging will complete its transformation from a diagnostic tool to a key tool in delivering therapy and tracking the progress of combatting disease Computer-aided Diagnosis and Treatment Molecular Imaging Imaging for Drug Effectiveness

21 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Outline Pictures of the Future I I & C, Transportation, Health Pictures of the Future II Cross-sectional areas : Materials, Services Summary We need both, Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020 Introduction Siemens: Future is a fascinating challenge Horizons2020 Two scenarios for Europe

22 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Impact of Materials

23 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Major technology driven trends: Bio- engineering Adaptronics Interface between technology and living organisms is manageable Bio-sensors make diagnostics fast and inexpensive Embraces bio- logical materials, concepts and processes Materials adapt to environmental conditions Integrated sensors and actuators increase functionalities. Consequent further development of mechatronics Utilizes new effects, materials, processes Relevance like microtechnology Potential applications in all business areas of Siemens Completely new technology for new applications Nano- technology Computatio- nal Materials Science CMS complements experimental methods Multiscale Modeling will enable simulation of complex materials systems Enables highly efficient materials development

24 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Services Customer specific e-services Proactive services Performance orientated business models Context centered services Protection & security services © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved.

25 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Service oriented product design Advanced modelling and prediction Automated diagnosis and decision support IT-supported field service (e.g. augmented reality) Technology supports MRO* * Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul Proactive Services Anticipating maintenance

26 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Self learning health service systems with remote diagnosis of vital functions Context based alarm activation: -During Jogging elevated pulse rate is ok, no alarm -During sleeping period elevated pulse rate could mean danger – alarm is activated Context centered services Self learning and personalised services

27 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Outline Pictures of the Future I I & C, Transportation, Health Pictures of the Future II Cross-sectional areas : Materials, Services Summary We need both, Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020 Introduction Siemens: Future is a fascinating challenge Horizons2020 Two scenarios for Europe

28 ... describes a development within the European tradition of relatively strong governments. Society in 2020 will place a high value on solidarity and permanence. It will also be willing to accept a lower level of economic growth – with all of the social consequences that this entails. Szenario 1: Equality, Freedom, Modesty" © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved.

29 Scenario 1: Equality, Freedom, Modesty Predominance of the state Attitude to life: less is more, conscious life, de-accelaration Values: solidarity, sustainability Society: flexible forms of living, young aged, more modesty, provision for the future Work: high flexibility at relative security, frequent changes of jobs, lifelong learning, less work compression, good work-life balance Economy: slow growth, strong influence of governments on infrastructure and innovation funding Technology/Innovation: acceptance only after thorough checks Consumption/Lifestyle: utility more important than brand or status, booming do-it-yourself shops

30 ... outlines a very dynamic economic development. The driving forces are the market and global competition. Society is flexible, exhibiting a willingness to accept higher levels of individual responsibility and greater social risks. Szenario 2: Speed, Networking, Risk © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved.

31 Scenario 2: Speed, Networking,Risk Predominance of market and competition Economy: strong driver of society, dynamic growth, permanent change and new chances, rapid conso- lidation of globalisation Values: self realisation, personal responsibility, risk taking Society: problem of divide, high social risks, but high social permeability, high importance of networks Work: many amorphous employment contracts, lower commitment to single employer, just-in-time-work Lifestyle / awareness: speed, always-on, great experiences and consumption as values, brand names as important lifestyle elements Technology/ Innovation: highly accepted, permanent innovation

32 Outline Pictures of the Future I I & C, Transportation, Health Pictures of the Future II Cross-sectional areas : Materials, Services Summary We need both, Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020 Introduction Siemens: Future is a fascinating challenge Horizons2020 Two scenarios for Europe

33 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Today´s and tomorrow´s global challenges require innovative solutions increasing and aging population limited resources global competition urbanisation demand for security climate change minimal invasive therapy smart home / senior home telemedicine / home based care mobile business low-emission drives fuel cells telematics solid state lamps virtual companies human computer cooperation biometrics security solutions renewable energies decentralized energy supply power management hydrogen-based economy smart devices / applications smart/ ad hoc networks intelligent sensors & actuators molecular medicine global link CO 2 - separation waste water usage intermodal transportation ubiquitous Inform. & communications knowledge based enterprise …. efficiency enhancement.... ambient intelligence ….

34 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. Today´s and tomorrow´s global challenges require innovative solutions increasing and aging population limited resources global competition urbanisation demand for security climate change minimal invasive therapy smart home / senior home telemedicine / home based care mobile business low-emission drives fuel cells telematics solid state lamps virtual companies human computer cooperation biometrics security solutions renewable energies decentralized energy supply power management hydrogen-based economy smart devices / applications smart/ adhoc networks intelligent sensors & actuators molecular medicine global link CO 2 - separation waste water usage intermodal transportation ubiquitous Inform. & communications knowledge based enterprise …. efficiency enhancement.... ambient intelligence …. Holistic thinking and approaches Interdisciplinary research Global cooperations including public research Dialog between industry, science, government and society The speed will not only set by what is technically feasible but also what is economically and socially affordable There is no free lunch Europe has a good chance to set the trends if it strengthens it´s strengths and smoothes out it´s weaknesses

35 C O R P O R A T E T E C H N O L O G Y © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved. …the best way of predicting the future is to invent and to shape it yourself ! Prediction of the future is very difficult, yet new opportunities abundantly exist, and therefore… Thank You !


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