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European Environment Agency 1 Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studies GROUP Teresa Ribeiro Anita Pirc-Velkavrh (Axel Volkery) (AnneKathrin Jaeger)

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Presentation on theme: "European Environment Agency 1 Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studies GROUP Teresa Ribeiro Anita Pirc-Velkavrh (Axel Volkery) (AnneKathrin Jaeger)"— Presentation transcript:

1 European Environment Agency 1 Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studies GROUP Teresa Ribeiro Anita Pirc-Velkavrh (Axel Volkery) (AnneKathrin Jaeger) EIONET seminar: Forward-looking information in environment assessment May 2008

2 European Environment Agency 2 PRESENTATION I – Forward-Looking Assessments II – Improving the Information System (IS) III - Cooperation & Capacity Building

3 European Environment Agency 3 PAST ACTIVITIES: SOER ( Overview) European Environment Outlook 2005 PRELUDE (5 land-use scenarios) Glimpses (analysing uncertainties)

4 European Environment Agency 4 SOER - EUROPEAN ENIRONMENT OUTLOOK 2005 Key socio-economic developments Demography Macro-economy Technological and sectoral developments Energy and transport Agriculture Waste and material flows Consumption patterns Outlooks developed for various environmental themes GHG emissions and climate change Air quality Water stress Water quality

5 European Environment Agency 5 Analytical Framework of the EEO 2005 Geographical coverage - EU 25 Baseline projections ( ), Alternative projections and variants (up to 2100) Interactions between sectoral developments and environmental issues Distance to target analyses Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers

6 European Environment Agency 6 PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe Project objectives and outputs To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland) To provide a context against which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged. Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies

7 European Environment Agency 7 PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe New approaches to scenario communication: video/audio-animated presentation tool Broad communication brochure with DVD Interactive mind-stretcher Video presentation for Green week Technical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development PRELUDE 2 Action

8 European Environment Agency 8

9 European Environment Agency 9 Land use type A Land use type B Land use type C Current Situation PRELUDE -Land use change scenarios Where?... FutureWhat Changes?... Environmental impacts?...

10 European Environment Agency 10 Scenario development Quant. Scen. Qual. Scen Stakeholders EEA Data & Modelling Group(s) European Land Use Change Scenarios The main driving forces behind land use change are climate change, population growth and technical and economic development, particularly of the transport and agriculture sectors. The environmental impacts of land use change are complex, and may affect air quality, water quality and quantity, landscape structure and biodiversity … Experts Floods Biodiv. … Story-and-Simulation

11 European Environment Agency 11 A Prelude to Europes Future 5 contrasting yet plausible environ- mental scenarios of future changes in land use and European landscape Europe of Contrast – Great Escape Europe of Harmony – Evolved Society Europe of Structure – Clustered Networks Europe of Innovation – Lettuce Surprise U Europe of Cohesion – Big Crisis

12 European Environment Agency 12 DUET change

13 European Environment Agency 13 Belgrade report findings uncertainties complex and dynamic environment drivers of future change PROJECTIONS SCENARIOS what if... What are the prospects for the environment in the pan- European region?

14 European Environment Agency 14 Environmental changes are commonly driven by wider socio-economic trends, such as : Political stability Globalisation and trade Macro-economic trends Demographic patterns Consumptions patterns Land and natural resources use Global environmental governance Pan-European environmental outlooks*: Air quality Climate change Biodiversity loss Waste and material use * based on the key findings of the Belgrade report Future related uncertainties

15 European Environment Agency 15 Example from the report: Outlook – Biodiversity loss Impact of climate change on number of plant species, 2100 The global target of halting biodiversity loss by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without considerable additional effort.

16 European Environment Agency 16 Example from the report: Driver: Demographic patterns Population projections, 2000 to 2030 (Source: UN Population Division, 2006) WCE EECCA SEE Population growth Uncertainties (e.g. migration) Migration from Turkey to EU, Erzan et al., 2007 Scenarios e.g:

17 European Environment Agency 17 Total waste generation is expected to continue to grow Waste growthEnergy Transport: passenger and freight To understand better impacts on environment resulting from consumption and to more efficiently influence driving forces Key future concerns Example from the report: Driver: Consumption patterns Source: IEA Source: IEA/WBSCD Energy consumption is expected to increase. Volumes of transport are expected to grow in unsustainable manner

18 European Environment Agency 18 Development of the future EU policy in energy, transport Future development of policies in EECCA region Prospect of technology breakthroughs Global politics and unexpected events Changes of consumption patterns Uncertainties IEA energy scenarios WBCSD transport scenarios National energy scenarios in EECCA and SEE region The future European food chain: Sweden Scenarios, e.g.: Driver: Consumption patterns

19 European Environment Agency 19 PAST ACTIVITIES Review of available scenario studies in pan-European region Review of relevant available models at EU level Review of available outlook indicators from different sources Developing outlook indicators for EU/EEA Gathering, analysing and assessing available outlooks indicators ( Belgrade report, IMS(F), catalogue).

20 European Environment Agency 20 AN OVERVIEW OF SCENARIO STUDIES (2007) Scope of the overview Pan-European relevance More than 100 studies reviewed internet, contacts with experts, English and Russian studies, all SEE languages Main issues covered were economy, energy, political scenarios Russia, Bulgaria, Turkey, SEE regional level Review is available on Envirowindows scenario website Information gaps in scenario studies Environmental impacts: water quality, biodiversity, impacts of climate change, waste Transport, fisheries, technology, demography, land and natural resources use, env. integration with socio-economic issues Problems in methodological soundness, reliability, lack of direct relevance to policy issues

21 European Environment Agency modelling tools are described in standardised model descriptions out of a list of 130 models based on public available information - review by experts Overview of 35 participative models REVIEW OF MODELLING TOOLS

22 European Environment Agency 22

23 European Environment Agency 23 Towards an online model inventory Transfer of templates into an online model inventory: One-off review activities do not capture dynamic developments There is a need for pooling knowledge and expertise Broaden perspectives of modellers and model users – feedback function A web-based inventory developed collaboratively by the EEA and the respective modellers Hosted by EEA but updated by modellers

24 European Environment Agency 24 Overview of available outlook indicators -relevant to pan-European region IMS and CIRCA Review ~ 150 indicators from 14 institutions 14 models Themes and issues not well covered: terrestrial, fisheries, water quality, land and natural resources use, environmental management, integration with socio-economic issues 59 are in the IMS (F) 30 outlook indicators used in the Glimpses report 10 outlook indicators used in Belgrade report 12 are related to the EEA CSI All included in Catalogue (2008) Key results

25 European Environment Agency 25 Comparison of relations outlooks to EEA CSI CLIMATE CHANGE GHG emissions Projections of GHG emissions from National Communications under UNFCCC Projections of GHG emissions from UNECE GHG emissions - outlook from IEA model GHG emissions - outlook from RAINS model GHG emissions - outlook from IEA/ETP model GHG emissions - outlook from IMAGE model Global and European temperature Global and European temperature – outlook from National communications under UNFCCC Global and European temperature – outlook from IMAGE model TERRESTRIAL Land cover distribution Land cover distribution and change -outlook from GLOBIO/IMAGE model WASTE Municipal waste generation Municipal waste generation - outlook from National communications under UNFCCC Municipal waste generation - outlook from OECD model Municipal waste management- N/A Municipal waste management - outlook from OECD model

26 European Environment Agency 26 Catalogue of outlook indicators 59 outlooks: 20 available in May 2008, the rest by summer

27 European Environment Agency 27 IndicatorTimeWCE RegionEECCA Region SEE RegionSource Population2000 to 2030WCE+1%EECCA-6.1%SEE +16%World population prospects. UN Population Division, GDP2005 to 2030EU-15 EU % +141% EECCA+182%SEE w/o Turkey +141%OECD Outlook, OECD (forthcoming). Working age population per one person over to 2020WCE-53%EECCA-51%SEE - 61%World population prospects. UN Population Division, Emissions of acidifying pollutants (SO2) 2000 to 2020EU 25-63% to -85%EECCA-1.5%SEE -33%EMEP Inventory Review. EMEP, Emissions of acidifying pollutants (NOx) 2000 to 2020EU 25-46% to -69%EECCA+48%SEE -16% Emissions of acidifying pollutants (NH3) 2000 to 2020EU 25-5% to -42%EECCA+36%SEE +5% Assessment of outlooks for three Pan-European subregions:

28 European Environment Agency 28 Assessment of availability of data in Western Balkans

29 European Environment Agency 29 Belgrade report Annex 3

30 European Environment Agency 30 The way forward: 2008: Comparative analyses of 59 outlook indicators 2009: consultation with countries Regular update of few of them?

31 European Environment Agency 31 PAST ACTIVITIES: Countries Regions (SEE, EECCA…) UNEP – GEO 3/GEO 4 MA – Scenarios report Research Networks and publications

32 European Environment Agency 32 - Use of existing scenarios (UNEP GEO) for downscaling to the country level -Workshop gathered different stakeholders in the country and liaised discussion between them Slovenia 2005: -Analysis of existing strategic goals and measures in transport and waste sector for 4 different scenarios Identification of gaps in existing strategies and robust goals and measures for all scenarios Turkey 2006/7: -Discussing the energy system in the 4 scenarios Identifyication of adequate policy measures for developing a robust energy strategy in each scenario

33 European Environment Agency 33 PRELUDE 2action - Austria Initiated by the Austrian Environment Ministry 1 Day - presentation of 4 PRELUDE scenarios in a circuit Around 40 participants from different national and regional authorities Lively, open discussion What is the relevance (for EU, for Austria?) What is the plausibility (for EU, for Austria?) What is the desirability (for EU, for Austria?) Positive feedback – similar exercise run by the Oesterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz in May 2008

34 European Environment Agency 34 NEIGHBOURHOOD COUNTRIES (2009): Cooperation with UNEP GRID Arendal within Environment and security project -Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus -scenario development activity to strengthen countries capacities and contribute to identification of sustainable options of energy security strategies in Eastern Europe This activity would further link to EEA contribution to neighbourhood policy and EEA pan-European Astana report 2010

35 European Environment Agency 35 DUET Change

36 European Environment Agency 36 Developing the European component of global scenarios-narrative (on the bases of GEO-3 scenarios) Bringing together European stakeholder team to support this task Contributing to the quantitative analyses to support narratives Contributing to the chapter 9 of the UNEP GEO-4 report Contribution to UNEP GEO-4 report

37 European Environment Agency 37 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment- MA Scenarios team since beginning Development of scenarios Co-authored several chapters of the Scenario Assessment report. MA – Manual ( forthcoming Dec. 2008) Co-authoring chapter on Scenarios

38 European Environment Agency 38 Recent contributions to other foresight research projects / processes IWRM-NET WP 3: Long-term research needs in integrated water resource management (Advisory group) STOA / Danish Board of Technology: The Future of Long-Distance Transport in Europe (Advisory group) – 2007/2008 DG RTD Long-term research needs in agriculture – 2007 MATISSE, FORESCENE, SENSOR, Etc.

39 European Environment Agency 39 Thank you!

40 European Environment Agency 40 Conference presentations Linking with main Knowledge centres (Oxford, MA, …….) Scientific publications (MA, MA manual, …. ) other research projects

41 European Environment Agency 41 PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe Project objectives and outputs To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland) To provide a context against which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged. Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies New approaches to scenario communication: video/audio-animated presentation tool Stylish brochure Interactive mind-stretcher Technical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development

42 European Environment Agency 42 BLOSSOM Background Long-term environmental problems require a long-term (environmental) policy perspective A couple of challenges: The question is not only how to better assess key drivers, impacts and uncertainties of long-term future developments but also how to take decisions that are robust, or sound, against a variety of these alternative future developments? Quite often the ones who are producing the information are not the ones who take the decisions

43 European Environment Agency 43 BLOSSOM cont. Main questions What is the actual impact of environmental scenarios and other forward-looking studies and tools on policy-making? Anecdotal evidence that many decisions that could benefit from scenarios/other tools are not using them at all or not to the full potential advertised in the literature Is this due to: Lack of evaluation? Lack of appropiate methods? Lack of appropiate institutions?

44 European Environment Agency 44 BLOSSOM cont. Main rationale Bridging LOng-term Scenarios and Strategy analysis – Organisation and Methods A systemetic effort to: Take stock Scrutinize institutional arragements –Analyse methods and develop case studies »Foster information exchange and learning

45 European Environment Agency 45 BLOSSOM cont. BLOSSOM 1.0 Started January 2008 Organisations review Literature review Expert workshop

46 European Environment Agency 46 BLOSSOM cont. First results Literature review: 52 journal or book chapters match our criteria of evaluative scenario literature, so far... Some of the main findings: Little to less work on factors that influence the successful use of scenarios Most empirical cases come from the world of business Little to less work on failure of scenario exercises Growing literature evaluating environmental assessments does not make a significant mentioning of scenarios Institutions – the missing debate? Methods – how to better aling long-term scenario&policy analysis? Concepts of robust decision-making etc.


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