Presentation on theme: "Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studies GROUP"— Presentation transcript:
1Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studies GROUP Teresa RibeiroAnita Pirc-Velkavrh(Axel Volkery)(AnneKathrin Jaeger)EIONET seminar:Forward-looking information in environment assessment19-20 May 2008
2PRESENTATION I – Forward-Looking Assessments II – Improving the Information System (IS)III - Cooperation & Capacity Building
3I - Forward-looking assessments PAST ACTIVITIES:SOER ( Overview)European Environment Outlook 2005PRELUDE (5 land-use scenarios)Glimpses (analysing uncertainties)
4I - Forward-looking assessments SOER - EUROPEAN ENIRONMENT OUTLOOK 2005Key socio-economic developmentsDemographyMacro-economyTechnological and sectoral developmentsEnergy and transportAgricultureWaste and material flowsConsumption patternsOutlooks developed for various environmental themesGHG emissions and climate changeAir qualityWater stressWater quality
5I - Forward-looking assessments Analytical Framework of the EEO 2005Geographical coverage - EU 25Baseline projections ( ),Alternative projections and variants (up to 2100)Interactions between sectoral developments and environmental issuesDistance to target analysesKey messages / early warnings for policy-makersKey socio-economic developments (common set of assumptions for the driving forces to ensure consistency and facilitate cross-cutting analysis)
6I - Forward-looking assessments PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in EuropeProject objectives and outputsTo explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland)To provide a context against which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged.Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies
7I - Forward-looking assessments PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in EuropeI - Forward-looking assessmentsNew approaches to scenario communication:video/audio-animated presentation toolBroad communication brochure with DVDInteractive mind-stretcherVideo presentation for Green weekTechnical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory developmentPRELUDE 2 Action
9PRELUDE -Land use change scenarios I - Forward-looking assessmentsPRELUDE -Land use change scenariosLand use type A Land use type B Land use type CCurrent SituationFutureWhat Changes?...Where?...Environmental impacts?...
10‘Story-and-Simulation‘ Scenario developmentQuant. Scen.Qual. ScenStakeholdersEEAData &ModellingGroup(s)European Land Use Change ScenariosThe main driving forces behind land use change are climate change, population growth and technical and economic development, particularly of the transport and agriculture sectors.The environmental impacts of land use change are complex, and may affect air quality, water quality and quantity, landscape structure and biodiversity …Experts☺ Floods☺ Biodiv.…‘Story-and-Simulation‘
11A Prelude to Europe’s Future 5 contrasting yet plausible environ-mental scenarios of future changes in land use and European landscapeEurope of Contrast – Great EscapeEurope of Harmony – Evolved SocietyEurope of Structure – Clustered NetworksEurope of Innovation – Lettuce Surprise UEurope of Cohesion – Big Crisis
13Belgrade report findings I - Forward-looking assessmentsWhat are the prospects for the environment in the pan-European region?complex and dynamic environmentBelgrade report findingswhat if...PROJECTIONSSCENARIOSdrivers of future changeWe live in a complex environmentTo be able to analyes future perspectives drivers of the changeo future uncertainties and questions “what if…”uncertainties
14Political stability Pan-European environmental outlooks*: Air qualityClimate changeBiodiversity lossWaste and material use*based on the key findings of the Belgrade reportEnvironmental changes are commonly driven by wider socio-economic trends, such as :Political stabilityGlobalisation and tradeMacro-economic trendsDemographic patternsConsumptions patternsLand and naturalresources useGlobal environmentalgovernanceFuture related uncertainties
15Example from the report: Outlook – Biodiversity loss Impact of climate change on number of plant species, 2100“The global target of halting biodiversity loss by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without considerable additional effort.”
16Example from the report: Driver: Demographic patterns Uncertainties (e.g. migration)Population growthWCEEECCASEEPopulation projections, 2000 to 2030 (Source: UN Population Division, 2006)Scenarios e.g:Migration from Turkey to EU, Erzan et al., 2007
17Example from the report: Driver: Consumption patterns Waste growthEnergyTotal waste generation is expected to continue to growEnergy consumption isexpected to increase.Volumes of transport are expected to grow in unsustainable mannerSource: IEATransport: passenger and freightKey future concernsTo understand better impacts on environment resulting from consumption and to more efficiently influence driving forcesPer capita household spending is increasing with food in decline and transport, health, housing, communication and recreation on raise.Energy consumption is expected to increase, especially in RF.Volumes of transport are expected to grow in unsustainable manner (air passenger transport and road freight transport are dominant)Outlooks:Renewable energy by country (2005)per capita total energy demand - Outlook;projected change in energy-related CO2 emission for two different scenarios, reference versus alternative, 2004 – 2030Outlook on passenger demand (left) and freight demand (right, in billion Tonne-km per /year)Add key words from assessmentKey oprotunities for environment in the future are within SCPBG report messagesHousehold expenditure is between three(EU‑15) and five (SEE) times higher thanpublic expenditure. Household consumptionper capita is on the increase in all Europeancountries, with levels about four times higherin EU‑15 than in EECCA countries.• Patterns of consumption are changing rapidlyacross the region with the food componentdecreasing, and the shares for transport,communication, housing, recreation and healthon the rise. In EECCA, many rural householdsstill have little or no surplus for non-essentialgoods. However, a small but growing urbanmiddle class is increasingly adopting theconsumption patterns of WCE.• Food and beverages, private transportand housing (including construction andenergy consumption) are those consumptioncategories that are causing the highestlife‑cycle environmental impacts. In WCE,tourism and air travel are emerging as futurekey impact areas.• Whilst some decoupling of economic growthfrom domestic resource and energy use havebeen noted in both EU and EECCA, it is notclear to what extent changes in consumptionpatterns have contributed to this since mosthigh‑impact consumption categories areactually increasing.• Changing consumption patterns causeincreased impacts as spending shifts tomore impact‑intensive categories (transportand household energy use). Within thesecategories, growth in consumption hasmore than offset benefits from improvedtechnological efficiency.Source: IEA/WBSCD
18Driver: Consumption patterns UncertaintiesDevelopment of the future EU policy in energy, transportFuture development of policies in EECCA regionProspect of technology breakthroughsGlobal politics and unexpected eventsChanges of consumption patternsIEA energy scenariosWBCSD transport scenariosNational energy scenarios in EECCA and SEE regionThe future European food chain: SwedenScenarios, e.g.:
19II - IS with forward-looking components PAST ACTIVITIESReview of available scenario studies in pan-European regionReview of relevant available models at EU levelReview of available outlook indicators from different sourcesDeveloping outlook indicators for EU/EEAGathering, analysing and assessing available outlooks indicators ( Belgrade report, IMS(F), catalogue).
20AN OVERVIEW OF SCENARIO STUDIES (2007) II - IS with forward-looking componentsAN OVERVIEW OF SCENARIO STUDIES (2007)Scope of the overviewPan-European relevanceMore than 100 studies reviewedinternet, contacts with experts,English and Russian studies, all SEE languagesMain issues covered were economy, energy, political scenariosRussia, Bulgaria, Turkey, SEE regional levelReview is available on Envirowindows scenario websiteInformation gaps in scenario studiesEnvironmental impacts: water quality, biodiversity, impacts of climate change, wasteTransport, fisheries, technology, demography, land and natural resources use, env. integration with socio-economic issuesProblems in methodological soundness, reliability, lack of direct relevance to policy issues
21REVIEW OF MODELLING TOOLS II - IS with forward-looking componentsREVIEW OF MODELLING TOOLS20 modelling tools are described in standardised modeldescriptions out of a list of 130 modelsbased on public available information - review byexpertsOverview of 35 participative models
23Towards an online model inventory Transfer of templates into an online model inventory:One-off review activities do not capture dynamic developmentsThere is a need for pooling knowledge and expertiseBroaden perspectives of modellers and model users – feedback functionA web-based inventory developed collaboratively by the EEA and the respective modellersHosted by EEA but updated by modellers
24II - IS with forward-looking components Overview of available outlook indicators-relevant to pan-European regionIMS and CIRCAKey resultsReview ~ 150 indicatorsfrom 14 institutions14 modelsThemes and issues not well covered:terrestrial, fisheries, water quality, land and natural resources use,environmental management, integration with socio-economic issues59 are in the IMS (F)30 outlook indicators used in the Glimpses report10 outlook indicators used in Belgrade report12 are related to the EEA CSIAll included in Catalogue (2008)
25Comparison of relations outlooks to EEA CSI CLIMATE CHANGEGHG emissionsProjections of GHG emissions from National Communications under UNFCCCProjections of GHG emissions from UNECEGHG emissions - outlook from IEA modelGHG emissions - outlook from RAINS modelGHG emissions - outlook from IEA/ETP modelGHG emissions - outlook from IMAGE modelGlobal and European temperatureGlobal and European temperature – outlook from National communications under UNFCCCGlobal and European temperature– outlook from IMAGE modelTERRESTRIALLand cover distributionLand cover distribution and change -outlook from GLOBIO/IMAGE modelWASTEMunicipal waste generationMunicipal waste generation - outlook from National communications under UNFCCCMunicipal waste generation - outlook from OECD modelMunicipal waste management- N/AMunicipal waste management - outlook from OECD model
26Catalogue of outlook indicators 59 outlooks: 20 available in May 2008, the rest by summer
27Assessment of outlooks for three Pan-European subregions: IndicatorTimeWCE RegionEECCARegionSEE RegionSourcePopulation2000 to 2030WCE+1%-6.1%SEE+16%World population prospects. UN Population Division, 2007.GDP2005 to 2030EU-15EU-10+64%+141%+182%SEE w/o TurkeyOECD Outlook, OECD (forthcoming).Working age population per one person over 652000 to 2020-53%-51%- 61%Emissions of acidifying pollutants (SO2)EU 25-63% to -85%-1.5%-33%EMEP Inventory Review. EMEP, 2005.Emissions of acidifying pollutants (NOx)-46% to -69%+48%-16%Emissions of acidifying pollutants (NH3)-5% to -42%+36%+5%
28Assessment of availability of data in Western Balkans
30II - IS with forward-looking components The way forward:2008: Comparative analyses of 59 outlook indicators2009: consultation with countriesRegular update of few of them?Model based quantitative information useful to assess short term and/or more certain trends
31III - Cooperation and capacity building PAST ACTIVITIES:CountriesRegions (SEE, EECCA…)UNEP – GEO 3/GEO 4MA – Scenarios reportResearch Networks and publications
32III - Cooperation with countries - Use of existing scenarios (UNEP GEO) for downscaling to the country levelWorkshop gathered different stakeholders in the country and liaised discussion between themSlovenia 2005:Analysis of existing strategic goals and measures in transport and waste sector for 4 different scenariosIdentification of gaps in existing strategies and robust goals and measures for all scenariosTurkey 2006/7:Discussing the energy system in the 4 scenariosIdentifyication of adequate policy measures for developing a robust energy strategy in each scenario
33PRELUDE 2action - Austria III - Cooperation with countriesPRELUDE 2action - AustriaInitiated by the Austrian Environment Ministry1 Day - presentation of 4 PRELUDE scenarios in a circuitAround 40 participants from different national and regional authoritiesLively, open discussionWhat is the relevance (for EU, for Austria?)What is the plausibility (for EU, for Austria?)What is the desirability (for EU, for Austria?)Positive feedback – similar exercise run by the Oesterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz in May 2008
34III - Cooperation with countries NEIGHBOURHOOD COUNTRIES (2009):Cooperation with UNEP GRID Arendal within Environment and security projectMoldova, Ukraine, Belarusscenario development activity to strengthen countries capacities and contribute to identification of sustainable options of energy security strategies in Eastern EuropeThis activity would further link to EEA contribution to neighbourhood policy and EEA pan-European Astana report 2010ENVSEC(UNDP, UNEP, OSCE, NATO, UNECE and REC)
36Contribution to non-EEA scenario assessments activities: III - Cooperation -Contribution to non-EEA scenario assessments activities:Contribution to UNEP GEO-4 reportDeveloping the European component of global scenarios-narrative (on the bases of GEO-3 scenarios)Bringing together European stakeholder team to support this taskContributing to the quantitative analyses to support narrativesContributing to the chapter 9 of the UNEP GEO-4 report
37Contribution to non-EEA scenario assessments activities: III - Cooperation -Contribution to non-EEA scenario assessments activities:Millennium Ecosystem Assessment- MAScenarios team since beginningDevelopment of scenariosCo-authored several chapters of the Scenario Assessment report.MA – Manual ( forthcoming Dec. 2008)Co-authoring chapter on Scenarios
38Recent contributions to other foresight research projects / processes IWRM-NET WP 3: ”Long-term research needs in integrated water resource management” (Advisory group)STOA / Danish Board of Technology: ”The Future of Long-Distance Transport in Europe” (Advisory group) – 2007/2008DG RTD ”Long-term research needs in agriculture” – 2007MATISSE, FORESCENE, SENSOR, Etc.
40Methodological developments and scenarios Conference presentationsLinking with main Knowledge centres(Oxford, MA, …….)Scientific publications(MA, MA manual, …. )other research projects
41PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe Project objectives and outputsTo explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland)To provide a context against which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged.Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studiesNew approaches to scenario communication:video/audio-animated presentation toolStylish brochureInteractive mind-stretcherTechnical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development
42BLOSSOMBackgroundLong-term environmental problems require a long-term (environmental) policy perspectiveA couple of challenges:The question is not only how to better assess key drivers, impacts and uncertainties of long-term future developments...... but also how to take decisions that are robust, or sound, against a variety of these alternative future developments? Quite often the ones who are producing the information are not the ones who take the decisions
43BLOSSOM cont. Main questions What is the actual impact of environmental scenarios and other forward-looking studies and tools on policy-making?Anecdotal evidence that many decisions that could benefit from scenarios/other tools are not using them at all or not to the full potential advertised in the literatureIs this due to:Lack of evaluation?Lack of appropiate methods?Lack of appropiate institutions?
44BLOSSOM cont. Main rationale Bridging LOng-term Scenarios and Strategy analysis – Organisation and MethodsA systemetic effort to:Take stockScrutinize institutional arragementsAnalyse methods and develop case studiesFoster information exchange and learning
45BLOSSOM cont. BLOSSOM 1.0 Started January 2008 Organisations review Literature reviewExpert workshop
46BLOSSOM cont. First results Literature review: 52 journal or book chapters match our criteria of ”evaluative scenario literature”, so far...Some of the main findings:Little to less work on factors that influence the successful use of scenariosMost empirical cases come from the world of businessLittle to less work on failure of scenario exercisesGrowing literature evaluating environmental assessments does not make a significant mentioning of scenariosInstitutions – the missing debate?Methods – how to better aling long-term scenario&policy analysis? Concepts of robust decision-making etc.