3 AimAim is to complement the available outlook perspectives of the EEA indicators, streamline links with data at the country level and present European outlooks in the global context.Further, the aim is to facilitate the routine inclusion of future perspectives in regular environment reporting activities, and to help information systems capture data on future perspectives and emerging issues.The primary aim of the Model inventory is to provide an information source about modelling tools used to produce forward-looking indicators and analyses. The online model inventory is intended to establish an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results.
4 Current activities Current EEA/FLIS work Currently, 44 forward-looking indicators are published on the EEA scenario-website and managed by the EEA Indicator Management Service (IMS) for Outlooks. They address 9 topics, from socio-economics to biodiversity.Models are key tool for developing forward-looking indicators. Currently, the online model inventory is a key product to support . It is intended to have two main uses:To provide an information source about modelling tools to produce forward-looking indicators and analysesTo establish an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results.Main outputs:Catalogue of forward-looking indicators (EEA Technical report)Forward-looking indicators published on the EEA Scenarios web siteUse of forward-looking indicators in Part B of SOER 2010Evaluation of forward-looking indicators - methodology and evaluation of 44 indicators (internal report)On-line model inventory on the web
5 Forward-looking indicators: Definition present quantitative information on issues or aspects of the environmentare estimates of future developments usually based on available data, past trends and/or models
6 Forward-looking indicators: Use Forward-looking indicators can be used to:Discuss possible short-medium term policy optionsInform distance to target analysesIdentify possible impacts under defined conditions and policy frameworksHelp to improve the consistency of assessments related to the past, present and futureFacilitate the routine inclusion of future perspectives in regular environment reporting activities and systemsHelp existing information systems capture data on future perspectives and emerging issues
7 Forward-looking indicators: Management EEA, latest update 2008Software: IMS outlooksOutlook indicators in the Indicator management service (IMS)A review of forward-looking indicators identified those relevant for EEA environmental assessments, primarily linked to EEA CSIRelevant indicators entered in the IMS – as outlook indicatorsIn IMS users can select indicators relevant to themes (energy, air pollution)Allows indicators for past, present and forward-looking information to be compared
8 Forward-looking indicators: Linking CSI with outlooks Example – energyEEA Core Set of Indicators (CSI) on energy: 5 indicatorsOutlook indicators for energy: 10 indicatorsFinal energy consumption by sector (CSI27)Final energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 48)Final energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 11)Total primary energy intensity (CSI28)Total energy intensity – outlook from EEA (outlook 49)Primary energy consumption by fuel (CSI29)Total energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 30)Total energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 50)Total electricity consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 51)Total electricity consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 28)Renewable primary energy consumption (CSI30)Renewable energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 52)Renewable energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 39)Renewable electricity consumption (CSI31)Renewable electricity – outlook from EEA (outlook 53)
9 Forward-looking indicators: Example from W. Balkans [Source: EEA (2010) Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patterns]
10 Evaluation of indicators: criteria 1. Does the indicator monitor progress towards quantified targets? Does the indicator measure progress toward reference value or qualitative target?7. Is the indicator clear, transparent and easy to understand?2. Does the indicator monitor progress towards quantified targets? Does the indicator measure progress toward reference value or qualitative target?8. Is the indicator conceptually and methodologically described and well founded?3. Is the indicator based on readily available and routinely available data?9. Is scenario analysis available for that indicator?4. Is the indicator consistent in spatial coverage and covering most of EEA and collaborating and neighbourhood countries?10. Is the indicator timely (i.e. can it be produced in reasonable and “useful” time)?5. Does the indicator present data at the appropriate temporal coverage and sufficiently detailed time trends?11. Is the indicator well documented and of known quality? (i.e. Is the indicator used by other international organizations)?6. Is the indicator presented at the appropriate geographical resolution (EEA country groupings) or can be disaggregated to the national level?12. Does an institutional agreement exist between EEA and indicator producer to produce forward- looking indicators?
12 Evaluation of indicators: results ComparisonAGRI-F01/ AGRI-F02
13 Forward-looking indicators: SWOT analysis StrengthsScrutiny of underlying modelsCan help to communicate clearlyHigh number of indicators with policy relevanceRegulator updates possible via IMSWeaknessesDifficulty communicating assumptions and uncertaintiesCapture of non-numerical informationNot available for all themes or spatial scalesProblems with compatibilityOnly as strong as models usedOpportunitiesDevelopment of new or improved indicatorsLinkage to policy targetsGreater use in policy development and decision-makingThreatsIndicator availability could drive policy decisionsLack of institutional arrangements for regular updates
14 Forward-looking indicators: Future developments? Update/ expand?Provide guidelines for selection?Improve management?Establish of cooperation with countries and institutions for updata and management and use of the indicators?
15 Forward-looking indicators: Further information EEA website – environmental scenarios/indicatorsIndicator Management Service (IMS)Catalogue of forward-looking indicators from selected sourcesOverview of available outlook indicators for South Eastern Europe (SEE) and Eastern European, Caucasus and Central Asian countries (EECCA)
16 Models: Definition Models Are often mathematical representations or computer simulations that attempt to describe the characteristics or relationships of physical events or socio-economic developments[Source: EEA Technical Report no. 11/2008]Note: models also provide input to scenarios, drivers and trend analyses etc. – as well as developing indicators
17 Models: UseCan simulate environmental change, e.g. at global, European and other scalesProvide the data to develop and support forward-looking indicatorsCan be developed and used as education and awareness-raising toolsParticipatory models can be use in policy making for negotiation processes
18 Models: FLIS online inventory Provides an information source about modelling tools that can be used to underpin current and future state of the environment assessments in EuropeEstablishes an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their resultsPlays a role in fostering exchanges between research communities to improve existing or develop new modelling tools that can support forward-looking environmental assessments
19 Models: FLIS online inventory Thematic focusIMS categoryAgricultureAir qualityAir pollutionBiodiversityClimateClimate changeEnergyLand useTerrestrialForestTransportWaste and material flowsWasteWaterDemography(Socio-economic)EconomyTourismIntegratedThematic focus of models in FLIS and corresponding IMS categories
20 Models: What is available? Example – EnergyModels related to energy – 9 modelsModels providing projections on energy development in futureWEM – IEA'sWorld Energy Model PrometheusModels related to energy sector impacts on the environmentECO2-Regio / ECO2-PrivatRAINS-Europe (GAINS)Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS)EcoSenseOther modelsV GASInternational Futures
21 Models: SWOT analysis Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Provide a quantitative base for forward-looking assessmentsCan be combined with participative approachesMultiple models can be usedWeaknessesCan become rapidly outdatedOnly as strong as the underlying methods and assumptionsSignificant gaps in thematic areasConsistency, comparability difficult when using multiple modelsOpportunitiesAwareness of models can be higherOpportunities to facilitate their useExchanges between research groups can improve modelsModel ‘suites’Promote acceptance of pan-European modelsThreatsSystematic evaluation of models is lackingAre imperfect representations but can appear authoritative
22 Models: Example inventory content Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) modelShort summary of modelThe RAINS model provides a tool for analysis of reduction strategies for air pollutants. The model combines information on economic and energy development, emission control potentials and costs, atmospheric dispersion characteristics and environmental sensitivities towards air pollution. The model addresses threats to human health posed by fine particulates and ground-level ozone as well as risk of ecosystems damage from air pollutants.Model dimensionsThematic coverageAirEnergyTransportAgricultureInput (key drivers)Economic developmentSectoral activity (for agriculture, transport, energy, fuels etc.)Outputs (key indicators)Emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), ammonia (NH3), non-methane — volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), particulate matter (PM)Air pollution effect of energy consumption, transport and agricultureHealth impact and acidificationGeographical coverageCoverage: almost all European countries, incl. the European part of RussiaNational versions available for Italy and the Netherlands (also RAINS versions for other — regions, e.g. Asia, available)Resolution: country-level (can be linked with finer resolution dispersion models)Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model
23 Models: Further information EEA Online Inventory of ModelsModelling tools for the 2010 State of the Environment and Outlook Report – model inventory and participative model inventoryVariousModelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory