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Floods and other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project

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Presentation on theme: "Floods and other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project"— Presentation transcript:

1 Floods and other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project
1 Ad de Roo Jutta Thielen Ben Gouweleeuw Gian Franchello Johan Van Der Knijff Hannah Cloke Guido Schmuck

2 Floods: potential actions
JRC: European Flood Forecasting Increase flood warning time European Flood Alert System 0-10 day leadtime; pre-warning to MS authorities e.g. Elbe authorities: 24 hour forecast Decrease flood risk Technical measures reservoirs polders / retention areas increase floodplain storage increase dyke heights Environmental measures land use planning catchment: (reforestation / afforestation, set aside etc) floodplain: re-allocation of flood prone settlements (long-term: combat climate change..) JRC: Scenario studies Oder & Meuse (IKSO, OderRegio)

3 JRC Catchment Information System
TRANSNATIONAL CATCHMENTS JRC Catchment Information System August 2002

4 LISFLOOD system Meteo data River basin management River basin
ECMWF DWD DMI… River basin management River basin management LISFLOOD JRC European Data Soil, Surface, river catchment system, … Flood simulation & forecasting Member States data River dimensions, Alert levels

5 The LISFLOOD modelling system
LISFLOOD-WB Water balance model initial conditions LISFLOOD-FS Flood simulation model scenarios LISFLOOD-FF Flood forecasting model forecasting LISFLOOD-FP Flood Inundation model inundation extent Floodplain-scale Catchment-scale

6 Waterbalance Model daily time step
Flood Plain Model seconds time step Waterbalance Model daily time step Flood Model Hourly time step Spatial Planning

7 LISFLOOD : a distributed rainfall-runoff-routing model
Division Rainfall/Snow Interception Evapotranspiration Leaf drainage Snow melt Glacier melt Soil freezing Infiltration Vertical soil moisture redistribution Sub-surface lateral flow Groundwater recharge Groundwater flow Infiltration excess overland flow Saturation excess overland flow River channel flow (kinematic and diffusion/dynamic wave) Reservoir operations Retention storage (polders

8 LISFLOOD input and output examples
DEM SourceAreas Land Cover LIS FLOOD Discharge Coefficient Soil Type Precipitation

9 LISFLOOD: Main Principles I
Rainfall: inverse distance interpolation. Altitude correction. Snowmelt: degree-day method. Altitude correction for Temp. Interception: storage approach, based on LAI, using equations of Von-Hoyningen-Huene, Merriam and Aston Daily extra-terrestrial radiation: Angot Daily incoming solar radiation: Angstrom, Supit or Hargraeves Evapotranspiration: Penman-Monteith, using dynamic LAI based on satellite images

10 LISFLOOD: Main Principles II
Soil Freezing: degree-day method (Molnau & Bissell) Infiltration: Smith-Parlange equation Saturation excess overland flow Soil water redistribution between 2 soil layers: Equilibrium method, using van Genuchten hydraulic conductivity curves Subsurface lateral flow Percolation to groundwater: based on (Un)saturated conductivity of soil layer 2 and Darcy Groundwater: two-store approach, routing along LDD

11 LISFLOOD: Main Principles III
Routing: kinematic wave and Mannings equation for overland flow and channel flow along LDD; dynamic wave for large rivers Floodplain and river cross section dimensions are used Reservoirs simulated with user-defined parameters for each specified reservoir Retention areas simulated with user-defined parameters for each specified retention area

12 Use of satellite images for land use type and soil cover
IRS-WIFS used to obtain seasonal variation in cover for each Corine land cover type

13 Soil maps 1: Oder Depth to bedrock Topsoil texture

14 Soils: how we use them in LISFLOOD
Inputs: Look-up tables (HYPRES et al): Infiltration parameters infiltration topsoil texture topsoil Van Genuchten parameters h/v transport subsoil texture subsoil Van Genuchten parameters h/v transport depth to bedrock water storage Parent material Groundwater parameters groundwater

15

16 LISFLOOD outputs

17 LISFLOOD-WB: Borgharen (Meuse, NL) 1993-1995

18 The LISFLOOD model: a tool for River Basin Management
Original land cover map Reforestation scenario Simulates the effects of scenarios on floods and the water balance: Changing land use in upstream areas: reforestation deforestation set aside urban growth Consequences of climate change Modifying river and floodplain dimensions Building water retention areas Building water reservoirs 20% reduction in peak flood EGEO UNIT: NATURAL HAZARDS PROJECT

19 Evaluation of flood defense plans
Oder-LISFLOOD report July close cooperation with MS and IKSO, including accession countries

20 Scenario results Oder: Discharge changes 2001-2030 (if flood action plan is carried out)

21 TOWARDS A EUROPEAN FLOOD ALERT SYSTEM
21 Link to ECMWF established 10 day weather forecasts: Flood forecasts for all major rivers: Additional data rainfall temperature + LISFLOOD MODEL 10-day forecast Meuse: 20-30 January 1995 with uncertainty range discharge forecast Example of a warning report

22 The European Flood Forecasting System
10-day rainfall forecast per hour DMI 0-72 ECMWF

23 The European Flood Forecasting System: zoom
. 10-day forecast hourly discharge: LISFLOOD model

24 European Flood Alert System : EFAS EFAS team tasks
daily quick check on Rnf, also other rnf sources, WB, Q, news, Q, critical levels, Persistency to previous days, Keep logbook NO ALERT ALERT Automatic model simulation (At present: over night. Soon twice a day.) Forecasts ECMWF DWD Qobs Pobs get overview from other data sources Monitor carefully the second simulation and check persistency Discuss flood risk and how to proceed further with team Unofficially inform NWA contact In case crisis becomes certain contact DSS in the morning check midnight run, and check status of morning run keep logbook Validate results if possible - Assess scores and improve system EFAS server Data conversion Data storage Automatic 24h waterbalance On ALERT 10-day forecasts

25 Meuse (Borgharen) 19-01-1995 / 28-01-1995
P ECMWF Q LISFLOOD 1km

26 Meuse (upstream Borgharen) 20-01-1995 / 29-01-1995
ECMWF (old EPS system) Q LISFLOOD 1km

27 Forecast probability (Meuse-Borgharen 950120)

28 Forecast probability (Meuse-Borgharen 950122)

29 Oder flood 1997: Miedonia (upper-Odra)
970702 970703 970705 970704

30 Example Flood Pre-Warning for 20-01-95 until 30-01-95 0: all clear
1: flood watch 2: flood warning 3: severe flood warning

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33 Outlook: Flood modelling: 1:250;000 data for Elbe + Danube Validation for Danube and Elbe Scenarios European Flood Alert System Drought forecasting Using seasonal weather forecasts Model modifications where needed Irrigation Landslide forecasting

34 For more information: ad. de-roo@jrc
For more information: European Commission DG Joint Research Centre IES - Ispra - Italy


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