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LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project 1 Floods and other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Ad de Roo Jutta Thielen Ben Gouweleeuw.

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Presentation on theme: "LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project 1 Floods and other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Ad de Roo Jutta Thielen Ben Gouweleeuw."— Presentation transcript:

1 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project 1 Floods and other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Ad de Roo Jutta Thielen Ben Gouweleeuw Gian Franchello Johan Van Der Knijff Hannah Cloke Guido Schmuck

2 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Increase flood warning time –European Flood Alert System 0-10 day leadtime; pre-warning to MS authorities –e.g. Elbe authorities: 24 hour forecast Decrease flood risk –Technical measures reservoirs polders / retention areas increase floodplain storage increase dyke heights –Environmental measures land use planning –catchment: (reforestation / afforestation, set aside etc) –floodplain: re-allocation of flood prone settlements (long-term: combat climate change..) Floods: potential actions JRC: Scenario studies Oder & Meuse (IKSO, OderRegio) JRC: European Flood Forecasting

3 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project JRC Catchment Information System TRANSNATIONAL CATCHMENTS August 2002

4 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project LISFLOOD JRC European Data -Soil, Surface, river catchment system, … Member States data -River dimensions, Alert levels River basin management River basin management Meteo data -ECMWF -DWD -DMI… LISFLOOD system Flood simulation & forecasting

5 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project The LISFLOOD modelling system LISFLOOD-WBWater balance modelinitial conditions LISFLOOD-FS Flood simulation modelscenarios LISFLOOD-FFFlood forecasting modelforecasting LISFLOOD-FPFlood Inundation modelinundation extent Catchment-scale Floodplain-scale

6 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Waterbalance Model daily time step Flood Model Hourly time step Flood Plain Model seconds time step Spatial Planning

7 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project LISFLOOD : a distributed rainfall-runoff-routing model Division Rainfall/Snow Interception Evapotranspiration Leaf drainage Snow melt Glacier melt Soil freezing Infiltration Vertical soil moisture redistribution Sub-surface lateral flow Groundwater recharge Groundwater flow Infiltration excess overland flow Saturation excess overland flow River channel flow (kinematic and diffusion/dynamic wave) Reservoir operations Retention storage (polders

8 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project LISFLOOD input and output examples DEM Land Cover Soil Type Precipitation Discharge Coefficient SourceAreas LIS FLOOD

9 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project LISFLOOD: Main Principles I Rainfall: inverse distance interpolation. Altitude correction. Snowmelt: degree-day method. Altitude correction for Temp. Interception: storage approach, based on LAI, using equations of Von-Hoyningen-Huene, Merriam and Aston Daily extra-terrestrial radiation: Angot Daily incoming solar radiation: Angstrom, Supit or Hargraeves Evapotranspiration: Penman-Monteith, using dynamic LAI based on satellite images

10 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project LISFLOOD: Main Principles II Soil Freezing: degree-day method (Molnau & Bissell) Infiltration: Smith-Parlange equation Saturation excess overland flow Soil water redistribution between 2 soil layers: Equilibrium method, using van Genuchten hydraulic conductivity curves Subsurface lateral flow Percolation to groundwater: based on (Un)saturated conductivity of soil layer 2 and Darcy Groundwater: two-store approach, routing along LDD

11 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project LISFLOOD: Main Principles III Routing: kinematic wave and Mannings equation for overland flow and channel flow along LDD; dynamic wave for large rivers Floodplain and river cross section dimensions are used Reservoirs simulated with user-defined parameters for each specified reservoir Retention areas simulated with user-defined parameters for each specified retention area

12 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Use of satellite images for land use type and soil cover IRS-WIFS used to obtain seasonal variation in cover for each Corine land cover type

13 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Soil maps 1:250.000 Oder Topsoil texture Depth to bedrock

14 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Soils: how we use them in LISFLOOD Inputs: topsoil texture subsoil texture depth to bedrock Parent material topsoil Van Genuchten parameters subsoil Van Genuchten parameters Look-up tables (HYPRES et al): Infiltration parameters water storage Groundwater parametersgroundwater infiltration h/v transport

15 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project

16 LISFLOOD outputs

17 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project LISFLOOD-WB: Borgharen (Meuse, NL) 1993-1995

18 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project The LISFLOOD model: a tool for River Basin Management Changing land use in upstream areas: –reforestation –deforestation –set aside –urban growth Consequences of climate change Modifying river and floodplain dimensions Building water retention areas Building water reservoirs Original land cover mapReforestation scenario 20% reduction in peak flood EGEO UNIT: NATURAL HAZARDS PROJECT Simulates the effects of scenarios on floods and the water balance:

19 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Oder-LISFLOOD report July 2002 close cooperation with MS and IKSO, including accession countries Evaluation of flood defense plans

20 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Scenario results Oder: Discharge changes 2001-2030 (if flood action plan is carried out)

21 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project 21 TOWARDS A EUROPEAN FLOOD ALERT SYSTEM 10 day weather forecasts: rainfalltemperature + LISFLOOD MODEL Flood forecasts for all major rivers: Example of a warning report 10-day forecast Meuse: 20-30 January 1995 with uncertainty range discharge forecast Additional data Link to ECMWF established

22 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project The European Flood Forecasting System 10-day rainfall forecast per hour 22-01-1995 31- 01-1995 DMI 0-72 ECMWF 73-240

23 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project The European Flood Forecasting System: zoom 10-day forecast hourly discharge: 22-01-1995 31-01-1995 LISFLOOD model.

24 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project - in the morning check midnight run, and check status of morning run - keep logbook - Validate results if possible - Assess scores and improve system European Flood Alert System : EFAS Forecasts ECMWF DWD Q obs P obs 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 EFAS server -Data conversion -Data storage … daily quick check on Rnf, also other rnf sources, WB, Q, news, Q, critical levels, Persistency to previous days, Keep logbook NO ALERT ALERT Automatic model simulation (At present: over night. Soon twice a day.) EFAS team tasks Automatic 24h waterbalance On ALERT 10-day forecasts -get overview from other data sources -Monitor carefully the second simulation and check persistency -Discuss flood risk and how to proceed further with team -Unofficially inform NWA contact -In case crisis becomes certain contact DSS

25 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Meuse (Borgharen) 19-01-1995 / 28-01-1995 P Q ECMWF LISFLOOD 1km

26 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Meuse (upstream Borgharen) 20-01-1995 / 29-01-1995 P Q LISFLOOD 1km ECMWF (old EPS system)

27 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Forecast probability (Meuse-Borgharen 950120)

28 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Forecast probability (Meuse-Borgharen 950122)

29 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Oder flood 1997: Miedonia (upper-Odra) 970702 970703 970704 970705

30 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project Example Flood Pre-Warning for 20-01-95 until 30-01-95 0: all clear 1: flood watch 2: flood warning 3: severe flood warning

31 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project

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33 Outlook: Flood modelling: –1:250;000 data for Elbe + Danube –Validation for Danube and Elbe –Scenarios –European Flood Alert System Drought forecasting –Using seasonal weather forecasts –Model modifications where needed Irrigation Landslide forecasting –Model modifications where needed

34 LM – Floods and Other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project For more information: ad.de-roo@jrc.it European Commission DG Joint Research Centre IES - Ispra - Italy


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