1. The influence of climate change on forest ungulates: the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems Thomas P. Rooney tinyurl.com/ProfRooney

2. “The system is a lot more complicated than anybody thought.” -Dr. Robert Rockwell, reflecting 45 years of research in the Arctic tundra that is undergoing accelerating environmental change Take Home Message

3. 1. The influence of climate change… 2. …on forest ungulates… 3. …the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems Outline

5. Influence of climate change… Common view: Climate change happens in the future Better: Climate change is underway now

6. Forest fires in Canada have increased with temp. anomaly Gillett et al. 2004

7. Influence of climate change… Common view: Climate change will gradually make things warmer Better: Climate change will be experienced as discrete events that interact with warming to impact management actions and options

8. Forest storm damage in Sweden Schlyter et al. 2006

9. Influence of climate change… Common view: Effects of climate change are predictable Better: Many effects will not be predictable. Climate interacts with complex biological and social systems, producing surprises.

10. Climate interacts with biological and social systems

11. …on forest ungulates… Forests and ungulates form a coupled ecological system that operates over multiple scales in space and time. Ungulates can facilitate or inhibit meeting forest management objectives.

12. …on forest ungulates… Ungulate herbivory is a key driver of forest structure, composition and dynamics. Côté et al. 2014

13. Beschta et al. (2013) On forest ungulates negative effects of climate change + ungulates

14. …on forest ungulates… ungulates, climate change and zoonoses Hoberg et al. (2008) identify 11 classes of parasites or vectors significant for livestock and wild ungulates in North America that will influenced by climate change. Hoberg et al. 2008 Altered disease transmission dynamics Altered geographic ranges of parasites Altered parasite life cycles and intermediate hosts

15. …on forest ungulates… Change in the diversity and abundance of forest ungulates will shape forest development

16. …the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems Williams and Jackson (2007) Novel (no present analog) ecosystems in areas with novel climate

17. …the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems Williams and Jackson (2007) Location of novel ecosystems under A2 warming scenario

18. Hobbs et al. 2009

19. …the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems Adaptive strategies 1.Increase resiliency – manage for accommodating climate change 2. Increase resistance – manage for resisting impacts of climate change 3. Facilitate transitions – manage for new conditions 4. Realignment – create novel forest types Stephens et al. 2010

20. …the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems

21. “The system is a lot more complicated than anybody thought.” -Dr. Robert Rockwell, reflecting 45 years of research in the Arctic tundra that is undergoing accelerating environmental change Take Home Message